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The ship's taking on more and more water.
The Bushies have shameless used up every little bit of bias, benefit of the doubt, and goodwill given them so far. As well as every prejudice in their side's favor. Milked every little bit as far as it will go and then looked for new bait for the remaining suckers. As bad as the outrages and looting have been, the comfort is that they're shooting for utter, complete, unavoidable political bankruptcy of their side.
Bush's re-elect rating (the minimal votes he'll get) has been scraping around 40%-42% for three months. His approval rating (in practice the upper limit on the votes available to him) has bumped along in the low 50s for the same period of time as he has used up new baits and excuses and obfuscations. But Zogby has him at the magical 49% now- the next slump is becoming obvious. He gambled everything on the Iraq endeavor.
They're still out there, the Bush voters. Long term trends say he has- at equal rates of turnout- ~45% social conservatives and conservative leaners who will ultimately forgive him just about anything he does overseas as long as he lives up to his billing domestically as he has. 2%-3% will vote third party 'cause they're that kind of people. Our side is shakier but- at equal turnout- has ~48% in returning Clinton/Gore voters (if we have a nominee who is appropriately adept and close to type) and 5% leaners, new voters, and late breakers.
Bush is obviously going to exploit and use up every last slander, myth, and outdated -or not- stereotype of Democrats. He has no intention or ability of winning informed or Democratic-leaning peoples' votes. November 2004 is a mini-Armageddon, a real attempt to create a one-time showdown for all the marbles. For their side, it's a war into which they're now drafting the last teenagers and feeble retirees to fight. Final stands are ugly, but final.
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