New National Poll: Dean, 22; Lieberman, 13; Clark, 12

[HFishbine]

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm

Historical Trend (oldest to newest):

Dean: 5, 10, 14, 13, 22
Lieberman: 22, 21, 14, 13, 13
Clark: n/a, n/a, n/a, 17, 12
Gephardt: 17, 16, 13, 12, 9
Kerry: 15, 13, 13, 10, 8

[Bertha Venation]

1. It's early.

Still, give 'em hell, Howard!

[Don Claybrook]

2. I guess Dean is finally getting some name recognition

And that's a good thing. I'm not sorry to see Gep's and Lieberman's numbers dropping steadily. Off the cuff, I'd predict Clark and Kerry numbers to go up somewhat in the next few weeks.

Now, let's have a fair fight, and may the best person win. :)

[bain_sidhe]

3. Hmm, early evidence of the Gore effect?

The one you listed was taken from Dec 4-8 - the 8th being the day the news of Gore's endorsement leaked out. Comparing it with the next most recent poll, it would appear most of the support came from everybody except Lieberman, Sharpton & Braun. (Of course, there's no way of knowing what percentage of the 348 respondants were actually contacted on the 8th, but I guess we can assume a quarter per day over the four days.):

Quinnipiac University Poll. Dec. 4-8, 2003. N=384 Democratic voters nationwide. MoE ± 5. (I rearranged it to put the newest poll first, since that's how it is on the site):

Poll dates: 12/4-8, 10/23-27

Howard Dean: 22, 13
Joe Lieberman: 13, 13
Wesley Clark: 12, 17
Dick Gephardt: 9, 12
John Kerry: 8, 10
Al Sharpton: 8, 5
John Edwards: 5, 8
Carol Moseley Braun: 3, 3
Dennis Kucinich: 2, 3
Don't know: 18, 17

Also, look at the poll immediately beneath the one you listed, the CNN poll which ended on the 7th - the day before the announcement. It would appear that Lieberman, Kerry, Sharpton and Kunicich were losing support between Nov. and Dec, with Lieberman losing the most - so, did the "sympathy vote" influence the above poll, I wonder?

CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Dec. 5-7, 2003. N=402 Democrats and Democratic leaners nationwide who are registered to vote. MoE ± 5.(Note, I rearranged them to appear in the same order):

Poll dates: 12/5-7, 11/14-16

Howard Dean: 25, 17
Joe Lieberman: 10, 13
Wesley Clark: 17, 17
Dick Gephardt: 14, 13
John Kerry: 7, 9
Al Sharpton: 3, 5
John Edward: 7, 6
Carol Moseley Braun: 5, 4
Dennis Kucinich: 2, 3
Other/None/No opinion: 10, 13

Anyway, just idle musings, in the long run. The next poll (post endorsement) will probably give a better picture of the "Gore effect" on the race.

[slinkerwink]

4. I'd tend to agree with you on this one

[RevolutionStartsNow]

5. I'll take State polls over national ones any day

but this is great to see. It will be interesting to see the next one, post-endorsement (agree that there may have been some impact from the endorsement on the last day of this poll, but who knows).

[dolstein]

6. Perhaps Kerry should change his name to "Don't Know"

That would put him in second.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

7. When do you think they'll finally drop the Hillary question?

Probably never.

[Redleg]

8. Why is Kerry going down? I just don't get it.

I have seen him do a fine job in the debates yet he continues to drop.