Why I think Dean could do well in the south

[CMT]

This is just my gut feeling. First, I don't currently live in the south, but I did spend about a year living in Texas (When Ann Richards was governor, Thank God).

On the face of it you wouldn't think that a Yankee from Vermont would be very popular in the south. Alot of the southern apathy towards democratic candidates such as McGovern, Mondale, and Dukakis (besides the liberal label) is that they came across as wimps(even though they were anything but). The classic example is the tank ad which featured Duke (how the campaign decided to release that image is beyond me).

Dean doesn't come across as a wimp. He is pugnacious and in your face. Southerners may disagree with him on some issues but he is a fighter and I think a good many of them will recognize this. He also isn't your traditional New England liberal. He represents a small, rural state and has an acceptable record on guns (an issue I don't particularly care for with Dean but one which may resonate with many southerners and people who live in rural areas). While he has had flashes of liberalism he is at heart a moderate who has balanced budgets without increasing taxes and providing for healthcare and education. It won't be easy (IMO) for the budget busting Bush to accuse a man who has balanced 11 state budgets of being a "tax and spend liberal."

[bryant69]

1. I'm not sure

I think Dean will do better in the South than Kerry or Gephardt, for the reasons you suggest. He's got guts. But the Gay Marriage thing will kill him. They might respect him on some levels, but they will still vote for President Bush.

I'm not sure focusing on the south is the way to win this election anyway.

Bryant
Check it out --> http://politicalcomment.blogspot.com

[bearfartinthewoods]

2. you don't go into the bible belt and say forget about God, guns and gays

hell, don't even do that here in PA please.

[HFishbine]

10. Don't twist words

Dean is not asking people to forget about God, guns and gays (geez, that's the Trent Lott spin). He is saying that as a tactic, we have to quite letting the repukes define the issues around God, guns and gays (which I think most dems would agree makes sense, unless we are prepared to roll over on separation of Church and state and constitutional protections.)

Dean is saying that we dems must focus the debate on the issues on which we can win: health care, jobs, and education.

[SahaleArm]

17. He does have a way with words doesn't he?

> Dean is saying that we dems must focus the debate on the issues on
> which we can win: health care, jobs, and education

Now why hasn't any other Democrat from the south thought of that? On what issues are southern Democrats winning on?

[HFishbine]

20. NC's Democratic Governor

won on early-childhood health, jobs and education. It can work.

[SahaleArm]

23. Kind of my point the strategy is not so new.

That's the only way Democrats have beaten Republicans in the south. You can't out-Republican a Republican...

[mlawson]

28. Absolutely! Concentrate on the cities, just like anywhere else.

Amazingly, we are just like anyone else....

[HFishbine]

31. mlawson

M, don't know where you live, but don't count out some of NC's rural areas, there are some amazingly strong dem rural counties in NC. Consider:

2000, Bush v. Gore (Gore counties in red):




1996, Clinton v. Dole (Clinton counties in red):



more (all states) here: http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/frametextj.html

[virtualobserver]

3. I have lived in Texas for most of my life.

Texans will respect Dean's strength and his gun position certainly doesn't hurt him.

I think that the "Bush is not really a conservative" argument is the most powerful one in his arsenal. In a battle between Trippi and Rove, I'd put my money on Trippi every time.

Last time, Rove was up against the dimwitted team of Shrum and Lehane.
Now Rove has to play in the big leagues.

[bitchkitty]

4. A common myth among some people

is that most white Southernors are ignorant sub-morons. Granted, the ones who get all the attention are. I lived in the South for over 30 years, my family's lived there since before the Civil War (but my ancestor was hung - he joined the Yankees and made the mistake of coming home for a visit). Even bubbas have to have jobs, insurance. Dean's butch image might appeal to them. I think that if Wesley Clark is VP, they'll vote for that ticket in droves. I'm a little conflicted over this, but I can deal with that, I want to win.

[TexasPatriot]

5. i disagree

but i do so respectfully
i've been in the south all my life, and i can tell you Dean's not the sort that plays well here. Yes he's a fighter - and he's tough - but theres a lot to him that wont play well here (and i'm not going to take the opportunity to get into it because someone will take it as a bash).

On a positive note, I think he will play well in the Urban south. And i think all the dems stand a chance of bringing in a minority of the suburban vote (though i firmly believe that there are other candidtates that have a better chance with this crowd). But Dean will likely really lose the connection when he gets into the rural south. Dean just doesn't have something - there's no connection between his charisma and the southern mentality.

As for what W* can and can't do - since you were here for Gov Richards, you should know full well to what lengths W* and his machine will go. Dont forget the smear tactics regarding Ann Richards past drinking problem. Or the push polls in South
Carolina telling them McCain was the "fag candidate".

When it comes to the political fight - W* is a Clauswitz kinda guy. He hits hard with everything - true/false/in between. He will attempt to bury the dem candidate in so much noise there's no room nor time for anyone to get the truth into people's hands. The noise the Dean camp has been hearing since the Gore endorsement is a whisper compared to that.

[wakfs]

7. The difference may be...

...that Dean fights back. I have no doubt that he'll fight back against the Rove bs.

[Hep]

6. Not worried about the south

The more work I do IN the south, the more I see Dean as being the choice OF the south. He has a tremendous rural plan, he has strong states rights leanings (#1 key issue for Dean), and he offers what EVERYONE, regardless of geography needs.

[mmonk]

8. in general

or just among some democrats?

[JVS]

9. Who among us can be sure that any candidate has support in general?

[mmonk]

11. none that I know of

but the posts seem pretty sure.

[CMT]

12. in general

in a general election I honestly think that Dean will do better than expected--and win states like Florida (latest poll is close) and West Virginia and Louisiana and perhaps Arkansas too.

[jmaier]

13. Hmmm

Electorally, I suspect that Dean might not do very well in the South but that's TRUE of probably most of the Dems. However, Dean or especially Clark can puts into play in the south. The harder Shrubbies have to work in FL, LA, AR then the less they can focus on trying to wrest away key states essential to a Dem victory. Notably, PA, WI & MI.

I'm not going to lay out the details here but a reasonable shot at an electoral victory exists WITHOUT capturing a southern state. The key will be the midwest and pulling out victories in AZ, NM, NV. Of course, I'd like to see a southern victory or two. That would make the task a bit more likely.

[TexasSissy]

14. Texas is SW, not THE south

I was born and raised in the deep south (Louisiana, a stone's throw from the Gulf). I now live in Texas. I lived a short time in Tennessee. I went to school for a short time in Atlanta, GA. I've traveled to Florida. I have friends from Mississippi.

Texas is not really "the south" that everyone is referring to in politics. Sure, there are some parts of it that may consider itself the south (Houston?), but it's too west, when compared with Georgia, South Carolina, Arkansas, Mississippi, etc.

Texas is huge and has a much different feel to it than "the south." The people I've encountered in much of Texas are a bit more worldly (I don't mean that in a bad way) than the deep south. Lots of people move in and out of Texas. Texans are used to meeting new people and being exposed to new ideas. It's not as true in the deep south, where there are fewer large cities, and more numerous small communities.

I doubt that the deep south as a whole will go for Dean. I can assure you that most of the people I was born and raised around will never vote for Dean. There are several reasons, which I won't go into. But this is my take on it.

I just wanted to point out that, although Texas may seem like the south to a yankee, it's not really (to a deep southerner). It's more grouped with, say, New Mexico and Arizona. The southwest.

[mzmolly]

15. I agree and so do Southern Strategists who helped a Dem win

in Virginia. They are Southerners who said Deans message is exactly right for the South/North/East and West.

[VT70]

16. I respectfully disagree

I'm from South Carolina and what I hear from other Democrats here in Columbia is that they would really like a Gephardt/Clark ticket, or a Clark/Gephardt ticket. They definitely want to kick Bush out next year, and they don't feel that Dean will be able to compete here in states like South Carolina next year. Carter won South Carolina in 1976, if I remember correctly, and this state is not out of reach. I think Gephardt/Clark could take SC, NC, and other southern states, that will be crucial to our victory. Just to make things clear, I have nothing against Dean, and I would vote for any of the 9 Democrats next november, but I really want to win. That's why I do not support Howard Dean.

[velocity]

19. Why would a Dean/Clark not win South Carolina

what makes Gephardt so special?

[VT70]

27. Because Gephardt came from nothing

and a lot of people in rural south carolina are not as rich as Howard Brush Dean III is. Gephardt and Clark both came from almost nothing to become two of the greatest leaders of our time.

[Jacobin]

18. I agree. He will win several southern states.

I've lived in the south most of my life and he has a populist streak that will appeal.

I'm convinced of that.

[SahaleArm]

21. OK which of these regions would he win?

[mzmolly]

22. See here...

http://www.moore-info.com/Poll_Updates/2004%20Election%20%20Why%20Dean%20can%20win%20Sept%2003.htm

[SahaleArm]

26. 2000 Electoral Map

Nevada and West Virginia went Republican - He'll have to win both back. Pennsylvania is a 50/50 state where the tarrif fiasco will help Democrats. His home state is also not an advantage given how he polls versus Bush in New Hampshire.

[DancingBear]

30. Ah, thank goodnes for visual aids

Trying (probably unsuccessfully) to take off my partisan hat, I do not see any states in blue (save for WV) that would switch should Dean head the ticket. The notion that Dean would take any states in the south/deep south is political fantasy. Clark I think would have a chance at LA, AR (Of course), and one of the Carolinas (NC is hemorraging jobs, but is still very politically conservative, and I don't think Dean's "job speech" would work - everyone will be talking jobs, and * will use his "rising tide lifts all boats" bullshit effectively).

Urban demographics are reshuffling the south, but it's still a ways away.

[SahaleArm]

32. Exactly - Clark takes AR off the table.

I also think he can win LA and WV.

[jpgpenn]

24. time to rethink,

[citizen snips]

25. I don't think so.

I live in the south and though you have a good point we have a lot of Republicans supporting Bush. Like one we all have grown to dislike Zill Miller.

[WhosNext]

29. Dean will get destroyed in the South.

Book it.