Dean can't win? New polls...

[jeter]

The argument by Clark supporters, Kerry supporters, Lieberman supporters, and others is that Dean can't win.

The implication being that their candidate CAN win. Well I have disputed this especially without any kind of evidence.

So I went to www.pollingreport.com to get the latest head to head match ups. Just to see how each of the candidates stacks up against Bush.

Here are the results from the latest poll.

Quinnipiac University Poll (December 4 to 8, +/- 3%)
1,071 registered voters polled.

Bush approval rating 51%, Disapproval 43%.

Bush 50
Clark 41
(Difference +9% for Bush)

Bush 51%
Dean 40%
(Difference +11% for Bush)

Bush 51%
Lieberman 40%
(Difference +11% for Bush)

Bush 51%
Kerry 39%
(Difference +12% for Bush)

Bush 52%
Edwards 37%
(Difference +15% for Bush)

Bush 53%
Gephardt 38%
(Difference +15% for Bush)

Bush 55%
Kucinich 32%
(Difference +23% for Bush)

Bush 56%
Braun 33%
(Difference +23% for Bush)

Bush 59%
Sharpton 29%
(Difference +30% for Bush)

So there it is...EVIDENCE. Dean does worse than Clark - by a statistically inconsequential 2%. Ties with Lieberman. And does better than everyone else.

You see. This is why the argument doesn't work. Because it is only based on the speculation of desperate candidates. Rather than the evidence. Dean does as well as anyone else.

[mmonk]

1. We really haven't got started

on bush yet. They only "think" we have.

[Bucky]

16. Yeh, but THEY haven't gotten started on Dean yet either.

Or Clark for that matter. Clean your toilet bowls, kids. You're going to spend a lot of time next year looking down into them from what Rove has up his sleeve.

[WilliamPitt]

2. "The" argument? Try "An" argument.

[jeter]

7. Will, I used "the" on purpose.

It's the ONLY argument they've been making lately.

[slinkerwink]

11. true

[WilliamPitt]

14. slink, is that right? Is that the only argument I've made?

[slinkerwink]

17. the only argument you've made against Dean that I can remember is

that ill-formed post about the IWR, and taking his quotes out of context.

[Sterling]

31. Yes that one was truly sad.

Some people have too much time on their hands.

[Closer]

39. You GO SLINKERWINK!!!!!

Tell em like it is!

[slinkerwink]

43. thanks!

[WilliamPitt]

49. "Taking quotes out of context"

is exactly the defense a couple of televangelists used after they blamed 9/11 on gays, feminists and the ACLU. "My words were taken out of context!" they cried.

My point: Your continued use of that defense carries as much water as a sieve. "You took my words out of context" is a defense of last resort, and has no merit whatsoever.

Keep trying, though.

[DancingBear]

29. You sarcastic little devil, you

:eyes:

[CMT]

3. and

Dean is gaining ground. A few months ago he was behind Kerry, Lieberman, and Gep in national polls in match ups against Bush.

[Bread and Circus]

4. Wishful thinking on your part...

use logic, try to see into the future, and think
"swing states".

[mzmolly]

27. Heres some 'logic' from Republican pollsters.

http://www.moore-info.com/Poll_Updates/2004%20Election%20%20Why%20Dean%20can%20win%20Sept%2003.htm

[Bread and Circus]

34. I mean use your brain logic, not read it somewhere else logic

[MoonRiver]

41. They WANT Dean nominated!

Of course the criminals are going to spin it in that direction!

[DoveTurnedHawk]

5. Clark Is Pretty Consistently a Couple of Percentage Points Ahead of Dean

That despite Clark's lower name recognition.

This will be a tight election. A couple of percentage points is HUGE in the grand scheme of things.

DTH

[slinkerwink]

12. but you continually pooh-pooh a couple of points whenever Dean leads Clark

so what gives?

[DoveTurnedHawk]

37. I Suspect You're Confusing Me With Someone Else

I take polls very seriously, whether national or state.

There just haven't been that many polls that I've seen where Dean fares better than Clark, nationally-speaking, anyway. I think there was one. Most of the rest show a clear trend of Clark faring a couple of percentage points better.

DTH

[LSparkle]

6. I really think the VP selection

will tip the scales in our direction. Imagine a Dean/Clark ticket or Dean/Edwards or Dean/???. I wasn't really for Clinton until he got Gore as VP.

[velocity]

9. True Gore / Lieberman just did not feel right for me.

I think Bob Graham and others would have been better.

[jeter]

13. Personally I think which ever candidate wins the nomination

In Feb or Mar will get a bump of 5 to 10%. That'll make it even steven.

[DancingBear]

8. Well, here's another point of view

Dean has been all over everything for the last two months - media appointed winner, fundraising leader, etc. Seems as if the whole Dem primary voting base knows him.

Clark got a late start, got no coverage, had trouble getting a staff together, and stumbled out of the gate re: interviews, etc.

Yet Clark does better head to head vs. Bush.

Interesting, yes???

[comradebillyboy]

10. its way too early

most folks still have no idea who dean is. once more people know him, we will see more meaningful polls.

[slinkerwink]

15. but he has more name recognition than clark

[IndianaGreen]

18. Name recognition is a media creation

and as we saw with ABC News undemocratic and monopolistic decision to end their already dismal covering of Kucinich, Mosley-Braun, and Sharpton, polling results can be manipulated by the media by the amount of coverage they give a candidate. Ironically, Al Sharpton got more coverage from his appearance on Saturday Night Live than he has from the embedded ABC reporter.

The only polls that count is the ballot box. We should not let the media tell us who to vote for, or create an air of viability around those candidates they prefer for the sake of their TV ratings.

Regardless of which candidate one supports, we need to change the rules of the game!

[eileen_d]

19. Do you have proof of this?

I'm not saying "you're wrong!" - just curious.

[deminflorida]

20. I Agree, Especially after they see his tax plan....

n/t

[UrbScotty]

21. An 11-point advantage is worth little 10 1/2 months before the election.

Heck, 30 points is insignificant.

Then-Senator Max Cleland led his opponent, Saxby Chambliss, by 24 points in April 2002. 6 1/2 months later, he (unfortunately) lost.

Jennifer Granholm led Dick Posthumus by 20-some points in a hyopthetical matchup for Governor of Michigan in early 2002. She won the 'real' matchup by 4 percentage points.

In 1990, then-Governor Jim Blanchard had a 10-point lead over John Engler in the final weekend of the race. Engler won, tipping off 12 years of state government misery

Politics is fluid. Bush won't beat Dean - or vice versa - until November 2004.

[slinkerwink]

22. that's true

[comradebillyboy]

24. well dean is the front runner but

he still has to actually get the delegates. he likely will, but the process is important.

[cryofan]

23. 54% of Iowans do not recognize Kucinich's name! This is invalid

THis poll is invalid--most of the responders do not know who Kucinich is!

[Julien Sorel]

25. The media have been All Dean, All The Time for months now,

and yet he still gets toasted.

Revolutionary campaign. Anger. Raise 600 million dollars over the internet. Fight back (no one ever thought of that before). A whole country of Anybody But Bush (ignore the polls saying otherwise). Popping forearms. Seething anger. Raise taxes. Confederate Flag. Did I mention revolutionary campaign? A 'new Southern strategy' -- appeal to economic interests (no one ever thought of that before). 'Difficult to define' (never stay put on any dangerous issue, so you can't be pinned down). NRA A rating. More anger.

Act like electoral logic and poll numbers are obsolete! Howard Dean, 2004.

[Scott Lee]

26. Then brainstorm for a way to get the media on your guy.

Here's a starter hint: Get him to be frontrunner.

[Julien Sorel]

28. How do you think Dean became the 'frontrunner?'

He was getting the most media attention when he was an also ran in the polls. When Clark entered and was leading in the national polls, Dean still got more media attention. So while I appreciate your attempt at smug humor, the simple fact is, it doesn't really apply. The media latch on to you, or they do not -- and Dean has been latched on to, despite the fact that he's all but a guaranteed loser.

[Sterling]

32. Actually Dean became the frontrunner because of DUers

And other similiar groups. You would not know that though becaus ethe Clark people showed up only recently on DU. You guys missed out onn the grassroots efforts that started in places like this not on some candidate blog that sent astroturfers here to project an image of grassroots activist support for their candidate.

[Julien Sorel]

33. Nice try at deflection.

I've been here for about a year now. Many of 'The Clark people' have been here longer than that. 4 months ago, Dean was nowhere in the polls, yet he still got the most media attention.

Where do you think Clark came from? He was drafted -- I was part of that movement. But a draft movement isn't 'grassroots,' because only Dean can have grassroots.

Dean gets fawning media coverage and it's 'earned;' Bush gets fawning media coverage, and it's an example of the corporate whore media at work. It's delusional.

[Scott Lee]

55. Oh right, Dean's ability to create a support base...

had nothing to do with it. It was aaaaaall the media.

I truly DO love Story Time here on DU.

[DancingBear]

30. Hey Billy!

I think "you've got the power!" :)

[Julien Sorel]

35. God, I hope not. I hate Kool-aid.

[ozone_man]

53. He has been consistently gaining against Bush.

Now, only Clark has a slight lead in a head to head contest.

I think Bush had a bit of a surge after T-day, but will sink back when the bear market resumes. Then we'll see how well he does.

None of them have alot of name recognition at this point. When the primaries start, and a few start dropping out, things will heat up fast.

[arewethereyet]

36. math is not my long suit but it seems the top 6 are deadlocked

statistically speaking given the 3%+/-.

And by this poll, none can win or even come close.

Now the good news for me is that Edwards is right in the thick of things and if the media will ever give him the time of day, he'll win it and take back the White House.

[mikehiggins]

38. The argument is that Clark has the best chance in

a very difficult election and primarily because he is not a regular politician. This election is going to be about getting the anti-Bush vote into the booths to press the magical touch screen. With a 50-plus-percent approval rating there are more pro-Bush voters out there than anti-Bush. Just plain math. Didn't even need a focus group to figure that out.

What we have to do is give some of those pro-Bush voters a reason to vote for the anti-Bush and presenting them with a choice between an incumbent "war-time" President and yet another Democratic politician, absent a third party candidate taking 19% of the national vote, the prospects are bleak, to put it mildly.

Why would any GOP voter cast a vote for the anti-Bush? Well, the conservatives, for example, are horrified by what is going on with the runaway national debt and the growing federal payroll. Many of the vets and many soldiers on active duty are even more horrified by what is happening in Iraq and what is happening to veterans benefits here at home. Southern workers who were staunch Jim Crow supporters have seen their jobs fly overseas with the connivance and assistance of the compassionate conservatives. Other factions have other reasons.

The point is that these people are not going to vote for someone they wouldn't vote for in good faith last year.

The Democratic Washington types are the same Democratic Washington types these people have been voting against for decades. It isn't an accident that the GOP has a majority in both the House and the Senate. The Democratic party has been dropping the ball for a decade or more, and the election results show that.

The people who elected this Congress aren't going to jump on the Kerry bandwagon, or the Gephardt express or the Lieberman local any time soon, if ever. Support a liberal Yankee draft dodger who went skiing and then approved gay marriages long before anyone else in the country was even talking about them? Hardly likely.

And that is why we arrive at Clark for all those reasons we've gone over time and again until even we can't talk about them without a sigh.

There is no easy way to beat George Bush in 2004. Anyone who beleives that should have stopped reading this post long before this. Anyone who disagrees with this analysis is welcome to their opinions. For me and for a lot of Clark supporters the choice is pretty simple and clear cut.

We want to win the general election and send Bush home to Texas.

We are supporting Wesley Clark.

[Fahrenheit911]

44. yeah, but didn't he use to be a republican..

I know he seems very liberal and progressive..
but I'm still not convinced and i hope he does some more campaigning in NH so i can go see him

I don't want another conservative in the White House..

[w4rma]

40. Dean stacks up pretty well comparatively. (n/t)

[Bandit]

42. If any of the candidates think they can win they have to beat Dean first

If they can't even beat Dean then their argumment is quite baseless. IMHO

[janx]

45. NEWSWEEK poll--Has anyone seen it yet?

I was going to start a separate thread on it, but I'm not sure if it has been posted.

Look it up! It's very revealing.

[slinkerwink]

46. link?

can't find it in newsweek.

[darkstar]

47. A link please ?

Or, if not on line, a summary of the poll?

Sincere thanks in advance

:toast:

darkstar

[in_cog_ni_to]

48. OK, jeter!

You just made my day! Thank You! :bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce:

Go Clark!

[slinkerwink]

50. how so?

Clark is TWO points ahead of Dean---that's statistically insignificant.

[Fahrenheit911]

51. yeah big deal.. ha ha

you don't have to make a big show and dance just because your guy is ahead at the moment..

I still haven't decided.. but that poll says bush would beat bothdean and clark.. which is stupid because everyone knows bush is finished.. people aren't stupid

[bearfartinthewoods]

52. national polls are next to usless because of the electoral college.

if you want to try this, you'd have to get polls broken down by states. we have to start thinking in terms of states/electoral college...not the national/popular vote.

[last1standing]

54. Good God! All this bitching is insane!

This poll says that we have six candidates who are doing surprisingly well against bush*, and all anyone here can do is complain about who's getting the most airtime or how important 2% is. Every candidate listed in this poll has the ability to run this country well and at least six have the ability to beat bush*. Isn't that good news?

Look, if Dean is getting more airtime than other candidates, it isn't that noticable. The major news outlets are still talking all bush* all the time. The only Dean subject mentioned is whether he can win. Actually, Kerry has been getting the most news, because the media wants to trash him with failing campaign blurbs.

Also, 2% means nothing at this point, whether all the polls say it or not. All that counts is that we have several candidates who, although none have great name recognition, are withing striking distance of a man who has been propped up by artificial means. That's wonderful news!

I understand people being protective of their campaigns and being fervent for their candidates, but how petty can it get before good Democrats leave DU in droves due to the constant bickering? I come here for news and the views of other Democrats, not to read about how Clark started the Waco fires or how Dean really was for IWR. Neither is true and that type of slander only hurts good candidates.

Who wants to rejoice in the fact that we really do have nine able and intellegent candidates, one of whom just might be President? I do.

[Scott Lee]

56. Shhhhh! Stop upstaging the Dean Bash Fest!

We haven't even served the cake and punch yet!