Someone please explain to me why we fear a Bush reelection?

[Ugnmoose]

The only thing I fear is BBV and I am getting more confident with each passing day that the cat is now out of the bag and it is going to be really tough to fix the election.

That said, what accomplishments can Bush claim to justify his reelection? That's right absolutely nothing. A really good Dem candidate who is not afraid to take the gloves off and let it rip will tear him to pieces. Let's face it his residency has so far been a "miserable failure". The only issue he had going for him was his self created "War on Terror". And even that is getting very old and worn out. Most people are starting to realize that even this one doesn't play in Peoria.

I'm no political expert, but even I could write a campaign script that would eat him alive. Can you imagine what the skilled creative political types can do? Let me count the ways:

Economy - 3 million more people out of work; dollar tanking; trickle down, etc.
War in Iraq - total failure; weapons of mass fabrication
War in Afganistan - total failure; warlords back in charge fighting with renewed Taliban for control
Crony capitalism - Halliburton, Enron, etc. one could have a field day with this one.
Budget Deficit - out of control
Medicare - rape and pillage
Environment - Kyoto treaty
Global relations - we are now the laughing stock of the world
Patriot Act - assault on the Constitution
9-11 - stonewalling
Energy task force - stonewalling
Plamegate - stonewalling
Education - this was the education president (what a joke)
Great Uniter - We are more divided as a nation than ever
War on Terror - where the hell is the money for anti terrorism programs?
I think we all get the picture!

[Devlzown]

1. The media.

Most Americans, either out of choice or out of necessity, aren't as informed as we are. They're lied to and programmed in all sorts of ways by the major tv networks. If America is ever brought down, it will not be due to terrorism or invasion -- it will be ignorance.

[Ugnmoose]

5. The media can hurt us last time but we still won

I mean Gore got over 500,000 more votes and the media torched him. I don't think they can be as effective this time around simply because Bush cannot hide from his record. In 2000 they bueried all of the crap he did in Texas as governor. No way can he pull that crap now.

[NewJeffCT]

31. I'd like to believe that

But, nobody has really questioned Clean Skies or Healthy Forests in the media, and travesty that was the medicare bill was passed... and, if a Democrat had gone in to Iraq based on faulty intel / outright lies about WMD, Faux News and every talk radio show would be pounding away at that every single day. The lead on Faux every night would be: "It is now 7 months and 2 days since Iraq officially fell and yet we still have not found WMD..."

[citizen snips]

2. Bush should fear us.

Bush you should fear all the Democrats beacause I think everone of them can do better than you can.

[izzie]

3. Well there must be something more he can mess up?

And do recall some of the English still like us. In another term he can get them all to hate us.Also there are still a few people with health left and in another 4 years he should get rid of that for them. Oh another term would be good for Bush.

[Robbien]

4. Only people who investigate know those things

The average person hears that the economy is going great, the war is making headway, we have clear air, clean water and healthy forests. We have not left any child behind and are taking care of our seniors. Sounds good doesn't it?

[Ugnmoose]

6. Yes, but the campaign has not yet begun

Once things get heated you will see a massive ad campaign blitzing the public with the REAL facts. Count on it. The money is going to be there.

[jjmalonejr]

7. I'm cautiously optimistic...

...but secretly a little frightened.

[Robbien]

10. People want things to be good

And notice that GWB's slogans are all positive messages. Unless the campaign the Democrats wage is positive, GWB has an edge. Pointing out flaws will appear to the general public as a negative message.

The democratic candidate needs a good media consultant who understands this.

[wuushew]

8. The public is a bunch of idiots

they voted for Raygun twice and a had serving of Bush for desert. Don't tell me there was any lack of scandals from 1981-1993. Mathematically this election will be historically close even if we win a key state like Ohio. We are skating on very thin ice especially with the documented polarizing of key swing states bordering on or in the south.

[Bombtrack]

9. Bush's reelect/approval numbers are as Good as Reagan and Clinton

in 84 and 96

GOP governors also control almost 60 percent of the US population, democrats are at a big disadvantage in senate races, which often have spilloff effects, and Bush will have more infrastructure than any other president in history

[AlinPA]

11. When Rove starts the flag waving and talking about

"gay marriages" and tax cuts and how God wants Bush to win and how unpatriotic Democrats are and waving the flag some more, he will suck in the votes for Bush. But...... there are only so many of those assholes. We need to register people to vote and work on the ground to get people out to vote. Starting now.

[WhosNext]

12. I fear Bush will win and we won't win back Congress.

[Ugnmoose]

13. Folks this election is going to be very different

None of us have ever seen what we will experience next year. Don't make assumptions based upon past elections. You can throw out the book. One of the reasons is the Internet. The second reason is that people are angry and motivated. Thirdly there is big money behind the effort. Fourth is you have the worst administration in modern history.

Granted as noted above, the mainstream media is our foe. But I don't think they can turn piss into lemonade. Americans may be ignorant but even a stupid person can tell when he is being pissed on. Again, we have the numbers working for us. We won the last election by over 500k votes. I can't imagine anyone who voted for Gore last time voting for Bush. On the other hand I think there could be a significant number of people who voted for Bush who would not vote for him again. And I believe there will be a massive effort this time around to register new voters, many of whom will be minority and likely to vote Democratic.

[Robbien]

16. There is truth in what you are saying

The ABB segment of the population is growing and is strong in its convictions. The GWB segment is losing some of its committed members because of the big spending big government legislation GWB has been signing. If a positive message can get out there to sway the unpolitical middle segment, there is a good chance at this.

[Bucky]

14. Good questions. A few answers

I'm no political expert

I mean no disrespect when I say this, but it's clear you're not an expert. You're looking only at facts and only at one side of the arguement about those facts. If you want a sense of how strong the president's reelection chances are, you need to get outside of hte DU echo chamber and listen to people talking about where the economy is going to be in 9 months, how the war is going to appear to be winding down by October, and what Karl Rove is gonna do to smear our candidate in the campaign.

This fight will be ugly, uphill, and only close if we do everything right.

but even I could write a campaign script that would eat him alive.

Then I strongly suggest that you do just that. Write it in letter form. Then send the letter to your local paper, ask to read it before any groups you belong to, and generally work your ass off between now and November.

Now your answers:

Economy - 3 million more people out of work; dollar tanking; trickle down, etc.

The economy is our stongest ally, but most voters don't judge based on the past 4 years, they vote based on the past 12 months. The economy probably will be better this fall than it is now. Most indicators suggest that serious hiring growth will begin in the first quarter of 2004. The weak dollar is disturbing, but in the long run it will actually help reduce our trade deficit (also increasing under Bush).

Twain once said there are lies, there are damned lies, and then there are statistics. In a debate there's as many ways for the GOP to spin the numbers positively as there is for us to show the problems. If people are personally feeling the pinch in their pocket book, they're not going to be very receptive to Dr. Dean's suggestion that we repeal the middle class tax cut. It's a crappy message from our front runner and one that's bound to hurt us with working class moderates.


War in Iraq - total failure; weapons of mass fabrication

Eh? What's that about weapons? The media has already quit talking about this. And by November there will be numerous events (troop pull outs, inauguration of a civilian Iraqi government, hand over ceremonies, and probably the capture/killing of Saddam Hussein) timed to make Iraq look like a bid success AND yesterday's news.

For Karl Rove, job #1 is to kill Iraq as a campaign issue.


War in Afganistan - total failure; warlords back in charge fighting with renewed Taliban for control

The public generally supports the effort in Afghanistan. They did house OBL, after all. I think people will be generally accepting of troubles coming from a non-optional conflict.


Crony capitalism - Halliburton, Enron, etc. one could have a field day with this one.

Budget Deficit - out of control

These will be buried by the corporate press. As long as the economy is picking up, swing voters won't give a crap about such matters.


Medicare - rape and pillage

Medicare is a tactical plus for Bush, actually. He can run for reelection claiming that he "fixed" the problem. This is one traditional Democratic issue where we've been solidly trumped. Only the AARP folks know how badly elders have been screwed on this, and the AARP leadership has been co-opted by Bush's bandwagon effect.

Environment - Kyoto treaty
Global relations - we are now the laughing stock of the world

Sadly, these are not voting issues for the preponderance of the electorate. It sucks, certainly, but no one cares.


Patriot Act - assault on the Constitution
9-11 - stonewalling
Energy task force - stonewalling
Plamegate - stonewalling

Lord, you make me want these clowns gone. Make this part of your speech. I can only say that after 9/11 people are willing to put up with a lot of crap from an administration so long as they feel like the president's a decent guy they can trust. He's managed to keep that up even when his adminstration is in shambles.

Three years of nonstop screw ups, mismanagement, and cronyism, and he's still pulling down 50%+ approval ratings. Any normal human would be in the 30s by now. He & Rove are marketing geniuses. There's been no major corruption investigations, no major resignations, no major scandals (thanks to the press's lap dog impression), and precedent shattering unity among Congressional Republicans.

Call them bastards, but don't call them politically inept.

Education - this was the education president (what a joke)
Great Uniter - We are more divided as a nation than ever
War on Terror - where the hell is the money for anti terrorism programs?

Again, you are right on subtsance and naive on facade. These are all excellent talking points. Having heard both Wes Clark and Howard Dean go after the president on these points, I can tell you that we are on the verge of nominating a guy who can't sell these arguments to moderate Democrats--the "go along" people in our party who intrinsically dislike confrontation and divisiveness.

Dean won't win any arguments on the Uniter issue because (Catch 22 time) he has to be explicitly divisive to point this out. He automatically loses credibility when he addresses this issue head on. Now all Bush's mouthpieces on talk radio have to do is sigh plaintively and say "Hey, Bush wants to be a uniter, but these liberal Democrats are trying to tear us apart. Listen to what Governor Dean says..."

I want us to win. But we need to win over a lot of swing voters who are eager to support who ever will make them feel safe--even if it's "the devil they know." The last thing we need to do is try and convince ourselves that this will be an easy fight.
I think we all get the picture!

[papau]

19. Well said-it's "president's a decent guy they can trust"-living rm TV OK

for 4 years

Indeed that is the only thing going for him - all else is background noise.

We need to equate Bush's face with the face of the "Liar" - not just because it is true - but today the election is about what image do you want to see coming out from the TV for the next 4 years. Who are you comfortable with. And the liar with no credibility tag must be stuck on Bush.

But also Howard needs to start ending speeches with "and God Bless these United States" - I know he already feels his faith strongly - but the New England "faith is a private matter you do not push at anyone" just does not sell in the rest of the country.

And bravado - We are the toughest and I will use our might to stop anyone from harming us - needs to enter Howard's speeches. We say smirk is an ass - but many, many want to feel comfortable that the guy on the TV is "tough".

Howard needs only these two changes - added to the economic wealth comes from a budget balanced by those that get the most paying the most - raise taxes on the rich back to Clinton levels - and I see a 52% Howard win in Nov.!

[Ugnmoose]

21. A respectful rebuttal

The economy is being propped up right now and understandably so. And it is likely that barring some unforseen event it might just be able to hold on through the election. But if there is a recovery it is going to be of the jobless variety. People will still be out of work and no matter how they try to spin it they are not going to convince these folks of how great they are.
The War in Iraq is a killer for them. And you are right in that Rove wants it to go away. Unfortunately they are in way too deep at this point for that to happen quickly. They will do everything they can to make it look like we are backing away, but the fact remains it was a total blunder and a good strategist will tar and feather them with it.
What most of the naysayers on this board discount is the power of mass advertising. We are going to have hundreds of millions of dollars poured into advertising in the battleground states. These ads are going to take their toll, at least in pursuading the independents and swing voters who make up perhaps one third of the electorate.
The only thing that can defeat us is us. If we go too timid into this campaign we are cooked. We have got to come out guns blazing and tell it like it is. If we are relentless in staying on message and hitting Dubya in the areas he is most vulnerable (not too difficult) we will win going away.

[Design8edGrouch]

15. It won't be just the media

The media will openly lie and spin for him and will deliberately lie and spin against any Democratic candidate. And if that is not bad enough, the public holds the opinion that he is a great moral leader. (If they knew their Bible, they would know that he stands in direct opposition to everything Jesus stood for.) If we are going to defeat him, it will be in the moral arena. Our candidate will have to be more morally fit than Bush. We will have to expose his lies, the scandals, his arrogance for what they really are; at the same time our candidate will have to have no air of sexual immorality about him and be more compassionate and honest. It wouldn't hurt if he was a Sunday school teacher or at least attended Sunday school on a regular basis.
Now to all of you who are Jewish, Moslem, Buddhist, Agnostic, Atheist or New Age, I apologize but we can't win without crossovers from the Republicans and undecided and they think that all liberals are morally and spiritually bankrupt.

[littlejoe]

17. Correction. Bush cannot be Re-elected.

He wasn't elected in the first place.

[Design8edGrouch]

18. You are absolutely right

This is part of media spin and even the staunchest of the ABB crowd forget that from time to time

[newyawker99]

27. Hi Design8edGrouch!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[elfin]

20. the courts, the courts, the courts... eom

[NNN0LHI]

22. I don't fear Bush is not going down next year

I am concerned with coat tails. We neen to win back at least one of the houses in Congress to reverse the shit the Chimp has screwed up already. Which candidate will have the most appeal to get that done? That is the question. There you go.

Don

[cliss]

23. Nice post, Ugnmoose.

I agree with you. Half-wit Bush should be renamed "Shiva The Destroyer" after the Hindu God of destruction. You would think that after trashing our country so badly, the polls should show him with 7% support, plus or minus 2%. But he's not.

After what he did, you would expect mobs of people barging through Washington DC to the White House, carrying pitchforks and torches to oust the man.

But -- it's business as usual in Washington. People are orderly, cars drive in the correct lanes. Things are quiet. The polls show it. Why? Because he hasn't cut to the jugular. Why not? Give him more time.

We should NEVER underestimate this group. Expect anything. I learned to quit being amazed when Rove diverted a nation's attention from huge demonstrations in England to a little loser in California named Michael Jackson.

That's why I plan to be very proactive and work very hard for the Democratic party in the next few months. Complacency is death with these guys.

[DS1]

24. Because every time we get cocky we get slaughtered

.

[CWebster]

30. No

Everytime we don't stake out our ground and define our opposition, we get slaughtered.

[Blade]

25. It's not that I'm afraid...

it's just that I don't want it because of the reasons you gave. The only thing I fear about a (re)election of the Shrub is the thought of the draft coming back.

[frustrated_lefty]

26. I am terrified

He lost and he still won. Four more years of this man will destroy America.

[Iverson]

28. You are proceeding from reason, perhaps a mistake.

I would fear a Bush re(s)election because fascism is anthithetical to the kind of world I want to see.

The far right isn't terribly interested in providing justification in the sense that we might understand it. They are only interested in consolidating power, and with the present political landscape, that means having someone to hate so that the majority getting screwed by their policies can blame a neighbor who they can see.

It's a long hard road.

See you in Guantanamo.

[CWebster]

29. Bush will lose by a landslide

Believe it and work towards that end.