how much will Chimpy's approval ratings go up now?

[pstokely]

and for how long?

[mhr]

1. Afraid The Democrats Just Lost The Election

Rove will spin this so far and wide that no amount of common sense will overcome the propaganda!

[jpgray]

3. If he gets out of Iraq now and gets the UN in, maybe

But if he remains and the steady bodycount continues, this doesn't help him much--the main problems are still there.

[aquart]

8. Time will.

Also what do we do with him now that won't offend one important group or another?

This is a very hot potato.

I saw a cartoon of Iraqi mass graves that implied that Saddam himself was a WMD. Think that spin will work when we have this old, defeated man before us? His sons are dead. Many people want to kill him for good and sufficient personal reasons. But what we have is a powerless old man. Not as good an image as a phantom boogeyman.

George triumphant over a man who hid in a hole? A man who didn't fire a shot. He burrowed instead. One coward beats up another?

Spin, Karl, spin. Like a dervish. Like a top.

The pictures will defeat you.

[La_Serpiente]

2. Don't worry

it will only last a month.

[jpgray]

4. Longer than that, I think--the trial won't be for probably a month or so

With Uday and Qusay it was over pretty quick--you can only parade those grim photos for so long. Saddam will get plenty of commentary, both leading up to and after his trial--likely he won't have much of anything to say himself, and if he is lucid (unlike NOriega), he won't have a chance.

[YellowDawgDemocrat]

14. I'm afraid the effects will linger as long as Rove and Co. want them to

I've got mixed emotions over this. On the one hand I'm thrilled to have captured this pond scum. On the other hand, I'm afraid the propaganda will be turned on and off at will.

I can just see the amount of intelligence that Saddam will provide for whataver "breaking news" the Administration wants to use to distract the voters and take the media whores attention away from any momentum we should generate. If things start looking good for us, they'll march some sort of new intelligence out on the American public.

I fully expect Saddam to cut a deal that will save his skin and provide shrub with whatever confirmation he wants to justify his war.
WMD's? Sure, here you go shrub, i'll be glad to go on television and say I was in the process of aquiring them. Nuke? Oh yeah, I had a few suitcase bombs and funneled them to Syria, is there anything else I can do for you? By the way, I'll have that steak medium rare with a nice glass of Cabernet.

[PDittie]

5. He'll get a convention-style bump

that will last a couple of weeks.

But there will more American GIs who will be picked off, and the media will slowly begin saying what the grieving parents are wailing, which is, "why are our kids still dying over there"?

By that times the polls will be heading south, I'm guessing about a month or so, just before the first primaries.

[VermontDem2004]

6. They will surge

I was trying to play Texas Hold 'em @ Yahoo! Games and the freeps invaded that board praising Bush for capturing Saddam.

[snippy]

16. But those dipshits already worship Bush and savor the flavor of

republican feces. No bump in the polls from them. There will be a bump from the people whose opinions of the invasion of Iraq have been changing, but it won't last long.

More Iraqis are going to want their country back now. Bush won't like that. Democrats should seize this opportunity to argue for turning the reconstruction over to the UN. They need to emphasize the number of countries who have offered troops and money but only if the UN is in charge. Democrats should stress that this is a wonderful opportunity to save American lives and money. Make Bush defend the continued occupation and exploitation of Iraq and the costs in lives and money.

[JailBush]

7. It's pretty depressing, but a lot can happen between now and the election.

I really think it's up to us. I see too many people playing it safe, launching websites without any mention of the issues, etc. I think we should just continue speaking the truth and educating the public, then hope for the best.

[MarkTwain]

9. Just enough...

...to get to 271 in November.

Unless the Democratic party finds its spine and provides an effective and electorally substantial alternative to the evil which is this administration.

Doesn't look like they're about to do that, however. Pity.

[dbt]

10. He will get what his daddy got in Gulf War 1

A boost that he cannot sustain when attention turns to the mess the economy is in (regardless of cooked numbers coming out of Washingtoon).

Moreover, if this invasion WAS about "removing an evil dictator from power," the sheeple will be restless about their sons and daughters remaining in Iraq for extended periods.

Fuck bu$h now. More than ever.
:evilgrin:
dbt

[Kamika]

11. I honestly doubt it means that much

With americans attention span I dont think alot of ppl actually cares now.. would have meant alot more if it had been during the summer or something

[TomNickell]

12. Until the next big attack....

No doubt this changes the political dynamic within Iraq, but the insurrection doesn't disappear.

Capturing S. H. alive creates an interesting situation....

Will he givean interview to Dan Rather?

[ozymandius]

13. Let's postulate on this for a moment.

What if:
Osama bin Laden is still free a year from now?
400+ more soldiers are dead by this time next year?

As I recall, George I declared victory in Gulf War I a year from re-election, pulld the troops out, had a victory parade and still lost. Am I missing something about the line of logic that says Bush will win the election because Hussein is captured?

As far as the insurgency MO has been reported, Hussein has not been directing these attacks.

[murielm99]

15. This is it.

They will be throwing this in our faces every day until the election. I think we just let ourselves in for another four years of chimpy.

The candidates will need to keep pounding him on the other issues: the ecomony, the questions about why we invaded in the first place, Afghanistan, Osama, etc.

I am already sick of pictures of them probing Saddam's mouth. And I wonder about the "undisclosed location" where they are keeping him. Maybe they should throw him in with Cheney, in HIS undisclosed location.

People are so stupid. They will think this solves everything, and vote for chimpy.

[snippy]

18. I think you are overly pessimistic.

Most people probably thought that Saddam would be killed or captured sooner or later. Rather than think "this solves everything" they will be asking what happens now. Bush won't have an answer to that question.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. From A Purely Strategic Point Of View

it's good he wasn't captured in October 04....

[tedoll78]

19. Yep.

I'm kinda relieved. Bush's numbers will sink by the end of winter - bank on it. It happened with the beginning of the war, and it'll happen once again. March will come around, we'll have our nominee plugging-away with questions about various issues, and Bush will back-down from 70 to 55, ending-up stagnant in the low 50's.. kinda how he's doing right now.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. I Have My Analyst's Hat On Not My Partisan's Hat...

As long as Bush's approval numbers stay greater than 50% it's hard for me to envision a scenario where he will be defeated....

No incumbent president with an approval rating over 50% has ever been defeated...


Also, I hope they aren't saving OBL for October 2004....

[FrenchieCat]

20. It may be harder the beat

the chimp now....Which means we'll have to get our best man out there against him. The man who has the most experience at what Bush will call "his" success. Putting a weak candidate in the area of war on terror/Iraq and foreign policy would be suicide!