Here's My Post-Saddam Take for Dean Supporters

[slinkerwink]

Even though I have a twelve page paper that's due at noon today, I've been thinking about Saddam's capture and how it reflects on the Dean campaign. This is all speculation at this point anyway since we need to see how it really affects the Democratic presidential race by the primary season.

This morning, Dean is going to give a major foreign policy speech. Since the media seems to focus on him because he's the front-runner, they'll carry his speech at 10:30am. From what I've heard, this speech got Gore's endorsement so it's probably going to be one of the best speeches that Dean will ever give in this campaign race.

I posted an earlier article that suggested how Dean could reframe the foreign policy situation with Saddam Hussein. Here's the link to the article:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=909659

We have to remember that the capture of Saddam doesn't change the fact that this war was based on lies about weapons of mass destruction. Tomorrow, as long as Dean manages to get his opposing multilaterist view on foreign policy out into the news cycle, we'll have an opposing point for viewers to listen to (assuming the media doesn't start belittling Dean's foreign policy speech).

I'd expect for more focus to be given on this by the Dean campaign in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. Also, Dean has other issues such as the economy and healthcare which voters also care about. The short-term boost of a Saddam capture won't outweigh the war deficit and the attacks on American troops----the voters will soon feel the brunt of that within the next few weeks.

Right now, I'm telling you not to give up and keep on working to get the word out. Here's talking points for tomorrow morning to spread among people that you're looking to reach:

1)Saddam Hussein was never involved with 9-11. He was not an imminent threat.

2)This war cost us billion of dollars that our children will have to pay, and cost us 500 American lives so far.

3)The capture of Saddam will not stop the attacks and it will not bring our troops home right away.

Spread those talking points---you'll see how effective they can be.

[wtmusic]

1. All true-but too soon

The wingnuts will gloat on this one until another helicopter comes down, the same way they did after the carrier landing.

This will wear off in a week or two.

[slinkerwink]

9. look at the poll above---bush got a boost of four points

that's really not enough. We'll see what the other polls say.

[jumptheshadow]

2. They are effective, concise points

Who feels safer from Saddam now?

I don't, and I spend most of my waking hours housed just yards from car bomb barriers.

We are not safer, Bush has diverted billions of dollars into an "optional" war while doing a miserable job of managing our own security.

[slinkerwink]

8. oh, I forgot the domestic security issue as a talking point---use that!

[Zomby Woof]

3. For a week, maybe 3, everyone will shift their emphasis...

...to this issue, without compromising their basic platforms or their stance on the wrongness of the war/occupation. In the short-term, all of the candidates will be overshadowed by this news, and I have already seen some terrible spin underway against ALL of the Dems. But this is an endurance matter, to be ridden out like a bad wave.

If the coverage will be even remotely fair, it will allow unedited time for each of them to address their take on what course post-Saddam Iraq should take, and cut through all the bunting and balloons. But we all know it isn't fair, and it is wise to anticipate it, as you are doing.

I have seen some worry (not from you, just in general) that we will be overwhelmed by the media/RW spin. Maybe in the very short-term. But the buzz will wear off a bit, as the same old reality over there sets in again. Certainly, it has major legs, and will surface again and again, as the campaign hits the road.

Lieberman was already about as low as he could go in my estimation, but today he went even lower. An idiot wind is blowing from his mouth, as his campaign is heading south. Retire Joe, you haven't earned it, but retire, please.

Edit: omitted words

[slinkerwink]

6. yes, it's a short term buzz as evidenced by the new wash-post/abc poll

bush got a boost of four points.

[Zomby Woof]

10. And!

The MOE is +/- 5 points, which means statistically, NO bump! I admit I was expecting a bit more too.

Still, there will be more polls, so we better stay even-keeled and prepare for the inevitable onslaught of bad propaganda. Going to be some ooze coming out of your TV set to cover these poll numbers up.


So... how many pages have you written for that paper tomorrow? :-)

[slinkerwink]

11. one.......eleven to go----it's due at noon. I can still pull it off

;-)

[drfemoe]

4. Also prepare for Gov Dean's speech tomorrow am

Major speech on national security .. in LA
Roundtable @ National Press Club in dc where reporters can listen and then discuss with campaign's foreign policy and national security advisors who will be announced Monday.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

5. Hey Slink

That was very well-said, and I appreciate it.

Today was strange -- seems like some of the media and much of DU went a bit wacky with the doom and gloom. The capture of Hussein is a positive step for Iraq -- there's no reason we can't appreciate that and still stay focused on removing Bush, who may gloat about this victory for awhile but still must answer for the lost lives (more to come, no doubt), lost jobs, and lost hopes of countless Americans.

The message I heard from the campaign tonight is to keep fighting, don't be complacent. Lots of work ahead, and I have no doubt that we can do it.

[slinkerwink]

7. same here too---in a way I'm glad this happened

because I felt like the campaign was going too far, too fast on its way to success----humility is required in situations like these, and so far we're good at rallying the Dean troops, and hopefully Dean will hit a homeslam tomorrow with his foreign policy speech.

[burning bush]

12. I would like to compare Monday's speach

with Friday's draft... :)

[slinkerwink]

13. there was a friday draft?

[Adjoran]

14. Not the right approach, IMO

We should not be confrontational on the war issues in reaction to the capture of Saddam. He's a bad guy; we can celebrate his demise from power even if we disagree with the means by which it came about.

AS far as polls go, the overnighters aren't very accurate. You need a 3-4 day rolling poll to get an accurate picture, and history shows that what is important ten months before the election is seldom the defining issue.

Don't panic. It's okay to shut up every now and then, for just a little while. It is much better to just let the big buzz pass on over, instead of making it bigger by arguing about it.

IF Iraq calms down, that means the election will be on domestic pocketbook issues, our traditional strong point. If it doesn't, then no one will care about Saddam being captured before Christmas. Either way, this news is no big deal. Don't make it one.

[burning bush]

15. Thanks Slinkerwink!

I have a feeling Dean will be the least affected by this (Shock! Awe!) because his point was NEVER that the war was unwinable, or that Saddam should remain in power. So, Saddam is captured and the war has been won - just as Dean said it would.

Fact remains that we diverted attention from our real objective - terrorism - and that we spent billions on a war we did not have to fight.

Terrorists still plot against the US, and our soldiers are still fighting in Iraq. Bush is doubly accountable for every life lost in Iraq from this moment forward.

This is why Dean opposed the Iraq conflict, and why he will not suffer from this victory, which does not belong to Bush, but to the American troops.

[slinkerwink]

16. no problem!