Poll: Bush's Approval up 4 Points on Capture/Reelect Down

[HFishbine]

Here's tha big bounce everybody was in a tizzy over, Bush's job approval is now at 57%, up 4 points from the previous week. Dissaproval is down 1 point to 39%.

Other tidbits:

Planning to vote to reelect Bush: 45% (versus 48% previous week)

Worth going to war: 62% (versus 59% previous week.)

http://www.pollingreport.com/BushJob.htm

and

http://www.cnn.com/2003/US/12/14/sprj.nirq.saddam.poll/index.html

(on edit: added reelect numbers)

[LTR]

1. Remember folks

Poppy was polling 90% at one time, and look what happened.

Saddam's capture will mean squat if we are still struggling in Iraq, unemployed and struggling economically.

Plus, the classic Bush personality will expose itself come general election. Like father, like son. What really did Bush I in was the fact that he was seen as uncaring and aloof compared to the outgoing, personable Clinton.

I still say there is a chance. But lots of work needs to be done.

[vi5]

2. There's a big difference.....

This admin is far more sneaky and victory driven than his fathers was. They are more willing to pull out all the stops and do what needs to be done to win. And the country is far more polarized than it was back then. Besides the first Iraq war was not seen as personal or in response to anything that directly impacted Americans. It simply does not make sense to discount the post 9/11 effect and manipulability of the American public.

[loudnclear]

3. Most people know that if Bush is elected for another term will be at war

with another nation within weeks of his swearing in. It the entire Bush cabal that the voters will be voting against...PNAC and all. That's what the message should be from our candidates.

[snippy]

13. This is an important point. I am always surprised, and disappointed,

that there is not a bigger reaction whenever someone in the Bush administration refers to the next pre-emptive war.

[CMT]

4. unfortunately we have to give it a week to sink in

and let the pundits do all their whoring to get the real feel of where his approval is going. I think the bounce will be there, but probably not as much as he hopes.

[bearfartinthewoods]

5. i don't think the post capture numbers are as problematic

as the pre-capture numbers. i think the precapture numbers of those who support the war are pretty hard and it concerns me that the front runner is telling those people they were wrong instead of focasing on how bush fucked up/saying bush was wrong.

telling people "support me because i think you are wrong" isn't a good strategy imho.

[ProfessorGAC]

6. Some Statistical Analytics

Remember that the polls are +/- 3%. (Almost all of them.)

A four point change is only 66.666% of the confidence interval.

So, there is, at the very least, a 1 in 3 chance that the change is within the confidence interval, meaning there is no change at all. Therefore, there's only a 2 in 3 chance that this is any change whatsoever.

In addition, there would be only an 2.5% chance that the actual change was the full, statistically relevant 4%. IOW, it is possible that we consumed 2 of the 3% confidence interval, and then added only 2%. It could be 3 and 1, or 1 and 3, etc. So, there's only a 1 in 40 chance that the change was really 4%.

Of course, it won't be reported that way, but that's how the math works.
The Professor

[HFishbine]

7. Thanks for the analysis

Excellent point. Thanks for digging into the numbers.

[Bill McBlueState]

10. nice post

We need more people like you who remind us of the laws of statistics when it comes to interpreting polls.

Astronomers have a notoriously bad grasp of statistical issues, but I try to do what I can.

Thanks, Professor!

[ProfessorGAC]

16. Any Time You Need Help, Feel Free

I'm nuts about astrophysics, so i can pretend to know what you're talking about and you can pretend to know what i'm talking about. A nice synergistic relationship, indeed.
The Professor

[janx]

8. Wow. That's not much of a bounce at all!

I was expecting 10 points or so.

But FOUR?

The American people are a lot smarter than the pundits who try and predict what they're going to do.

[ozone_man]

9. He drops in re-elect 3%.

That's the more important number. This war bounce is a speed bump along our way to steam roll Bush in '04.

The Bush I Iraq war I popularity sure didn't help him escape voter's wrath over the joblessness back than.

[RBHam]

11. Now that Saddam is caught

Channelling Conventional Wisdom:

The public may associate him with his father's failure.
He cleaned up his daddy's mess, but he's making a mess out of the country with his draconian domestic policies.
He seems removed and aloof from the common man.
People are starting to get that he's a global elitist and a belligerent militarist.
So, he's done his job. Saddam's gone.
People, after 9-11, have had their violent catharsis.
Now, let's get a Democrat in there to repair international relations and get the economy working for the middle class again.

[RBHam]

12. Bush might still need DIEBOLD

If the polls continue this way an effective Dem candidate who can express a positive message may start to appeal to the swing voter tired of fear and anxiety and wanting a message of hope for the future.

And if the Diebold scam is exposed he might need LIHOP II.

Saddam's capture might propel the average American to want a speedy withdrawal from Iraq. But Bush and Cheney want a long occupation to shore up their oil business there.

Troubled times remain.

[janx]

14. Or maybe people are finally beginning to tire of WAR--

The military trip was fun for awhile, we all got to wave our flags and watch the military hardware on TV.

But the body count continues to rise. The soldiers aren't as fun to watch anymore...

[ozone_man]

15. The war weariness is setting in

and that is not good for a Democracy, unless there is a darned good reason for it. Bush has not provided one.

People want an end to this war and their attention will now refocus on the failing economy.

[Granite]

17. Who are these people who wildly flip-flop

in their opinions of Bush? Granted I'm a straight-ticket partisan, but when called on these polls I always answer the same way - disapprove, unfavorable, no reelect, etc. Who wakes up one day and says, "gee we got Saddam - i like Bush now, even though I hated him yesterday?" Pretty scary when you think about it - people who are that influenced by current events and not the overall gestalt of an administration's policy directions. Ugh.

But we've recovered from all of his other bumps - 9/11, the pulling down of the Saddam statue, the landing on the aircraft carrier, killing Uday & Quesay, and the Thanksgiving turkey - we'll recover from this one too when people begin to realize that its all PR and photo-ops and no substance.

[HFishbine]

18. Kick

for the afternoon crowd.