If bin Laden were captured what would that market rally look like?

[bluestateguy]

The Sadddm "rally"

Market Summary

Dow 10,022.82 -19.34 (-0.19%)
Nasdaq 1,918.26 -30.74 (-1.58%)
S&P 500 1,068.04 -6.10 (-0.57%)
10-Yr Bond 4.275% +0.033
NYSE Volume 1,460,627,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,799,943,000


I figure the rally from finding Mullah Omar would be about -40 on the DJIA; for the anthrax killer about -100 and -200 for the "real" killer of Nicole Brown-Simpson and Ron Goldman.

A bin Laden rally could throw us back into a bear market again!

[BlueEyedSon]

1. Finding bin Laden could spark a real rally.

Everyone knows that Saddam was no real threat to US interests, either before or since the Iraq invasion; hence finding him is of no economic value.

Bin Laden, OTOH, really has had a proven impact on the economy (look at charts from Sept-Oct 2001). Capturing him may remove some of the "terra" uncertainty weighing on the market.

[maggrwaggr]

2. Yeah, they still have MARKET RALLY on their screens

and at the same time showing the NASDQ down 30 points.

This just on MSNBC, just saw it.

[Hawkeye-X]

3. Hypocrites. All of 'em.

I predicted correctly.

[TrueAmerican]

4. Cheney probably bought his stock on Friday

when he knew we had Sadaam. He probably had it sold this afternoon at a profit before the market went down.

[xray s]

5. Buy the rumor, sell the news

looks like it followed suit today

[cliss]

6. just a polite question:

Why does it matter whether we catch Mr. Hussein or Mr. Bin Laden? I'm trying to decide whether this has a historical precedent, or if this is just crystal ball gazing by the market-watchers.

Has the capture of big criminals affected the market in the past, like Hitler's demise, or The Shah of Iran, or Russia's demise, or the Phillipine president Marcos?

Just curious.