Dean, Clark and the South

[bluestateguy]

People here and apparently within the Democratic Party are divided as to whether or not the South should simply be ceded to Republicans. I am on the record here as being very opposed to such a scheme, as it would free up tens of millions of dollars and possible additional campaign visits by Bush to other battleground states (or even Democratic leaning states). It would depress turnout and doom Democratic prospects in the 5 open Senate seats in the South.

Still, any southern strategy would be different with Dean as the nominee verses Clark as the nominee. For the record I think Clark can compete in more of the South than Dean can, but for Dean to write off the South would be a grave error. Both possible nominees should vigorously contest Florida. If Dean is the nominee he should sit down with Joe Trippi, assess his prospects in the other 10 southern states, and pick one to play hard. Possible states would be Ark., Tenn. or Virginia. I would have him campaign in some of the other southern states, but taper off as we get closer to Labor Day if the numbers aren't moving. If Clark is the nominee I would pick 3 southern states in addition to Florida to contest vigorously and make a halfway effort in most of the rest of the South until Labor Day. If the numbers move in a positive direction then he should expand his southern strategy.

[Jack_Dawson]

1. Clark would win big

Tennessee, Arkansas, Florida, S. Carolina for starters

[Stuckinthebush]

11. No, not Tennessee

Remember, Gore couldn't even get Tennessee and it was his home state.

Florida and maybe Arkansas. Forget SC. Virginia, perhaps - but that is really not "South".

[RandomUser]

14. I'm not so sure about that

I think you're probably right. But Clark got a huge grassroots turnout when he visited Knoxville, Tennessee, a place generally thought to be very conservative.

http://lara.forclark.com/story/2003/12/12/223322/99

[dobak]

2. I think Dean could do okay in the South

But I do think that Clark could really pull off something, along with helping those Senate seats.

[Myra]

3. Kick

eom

[w4rma]

4. Remember that Dean has governed a rural state for over a decade.

His moderate stance on guns will help him in the South.
His moderate stances on just about everything will help him in the South, actually.

I assure you that Dean isn't "writing off" the South.

[billbuckhead]

13. Actually Vermont has no guns laws, hardly moderate..........

especially to people killed by guns from Vermont that were brought into other states with stronger gun laws.

[LoneStarLiberal]

5. Senate Seats

Some of the political science literature specifically indicates that there are considerations that Senators take in retirement decisions when they have war chests they can take with them.

I do not think this is the case for Edwards (campaigning, though I have to wonder where he got this idea). I also do not think this is the case for Graham (I believe him when he says he's just worn out...and his campaign has some substantial debt to repay). I think this is precisely the case for Miller, Hollings, and Breaux. They all have nice war chests with which to retire and reap a percentage of it.

Fundamentally though it will be very, very unlikely that we can retain all five unless our nominee really lights a fire under the American people. Even though it means we lose the Senate, ceteris paribus, I would consider holding on to three of the five to be a victory in this current environment.

[jmaier]

6. More important than the

Democratic presidential nominee with respect to these Senate races will be the reputation, network and quality of the Dem. senate candidates themselves. It's going to take first string, moderate (but NO ZELL's) with very strong political affiliations to win most, or any, of these seats.

A Bush landslide in the South, though, will make Dem. victories very difficult. It's a shame Edwards is giving up his seat -- do you think he's going for the governship if/when his Presidential foray ends? Isn't that seat up in 2006?

[DeanIsAPitbull]

7. I think Dean's only chance in the South is FL and LA

and this is only if he has Graham as his running-mate.

[TexasSissy]

8. Dean has no chance to speak of in Louisiana.

I'm from Louisiana. Born and raised there. Some will vote for Dean there, but for the most part, it's very conservative, it's an oil and gas state, and if they vote for a Dem. at all, it would be a centrist Dem. No one that they perceive to be liberal, whether or not the candidate is actually liberal.

John Breaux and Bill Clinton are two examples of Louisiana voting for Democrats.

Sure, they voted for some corrupt Dem., supposedly liberal governors. But they were FROM Louisiana, and that was a few years ago.

[Jacobin]

9. We just elected a Dem Governor running against a repuke

handpicked by Smirky.

I think Dean has a good shot here. His populist streak can appeal to those who know the legacy of Huey Long, et al.

I think Clark could also do well here.

The IraqNam thing is not going over too well here anymore. Smirk's sugar import policies are about to hammer the sugar cane industry here, which is really pissing people off and could create an economic meltdown in the southern part of the state.

[TexasSissy]

10. The new Louisiana gov is FROM Louisiana....

that's different. If you ask a Louisianian to vote for a non-Louisianian....well, they look a lot more closely, IMO.

I don't know much about the new La. gov. Liberal? Conservative? Centrist?

[jhmay]

12. Kathleen Blanco

A conservative populist.