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Kucinich not only has the best core, liberal Democratic positions on issues I care about: ending the death penalty, universal single-payer health care, making the Pentagon accountable to the taxpayers, demilitarizing space - he also has the best chance to beat Bush by greater than the Black Box margin of theft.
Kucinich will bring with him most if not all of the Greens who voted Nader in 2000 (and the Greens likely won't run a candidate if Kucinich is the nominee). That means 3 million extra votes for Kucinich, and if nothing else changed, that would mean a 4 million vote lead over Bush in November 2004.
But the 40/40/20 rule gives us an idea of how many voters will stick with Kucinich. Forty million of Gore's votes in 2000 were "core" Democrats, according to this rule - they're not going anywhere.
Of the 10 million who voted Gore but who considered themselves "independent" voters, applying a bell curve, we see that half, or 5 million of them, voted for Gore but wished he were more liberal, or put off voting for Nader to avoid hurting Gore. So those 5 million will belong to Kucinich as well.
That puts Kucinich up against Bush with 48 million pretty sure votes, and Bush only got 50 million TOTAL in 2000 - he won't get that many again.
But it gets better - there are still 5 million votes left over THAT ALL WENT TO GORE IN 2000.
That means that to cover a 2 million vote gap, Kucinich has 5 MILLION PREVIOUS DEMOCRATIC VOTERS to do it.
Compare the other frontrunners - Dean and Clark are banking on remaking the Democrats over into blustering, militaristic "fighters" in order to appeal to the former Bush voters they will need in order to beat Bush in 2004.
Kucinich nearly matches the Bush take in 2000 at the starting gate. He could lose 1.5 million previous Gore voters and still beat Bush.
Every other candidate needs ALL Gore's votes, PLUS previous Bush voters to win.
And a tie is a loss.
Republicans have gotten better at stealing elections - 8 million or more votes will be tabulated by Black Boxes with no paper trail in 2004. And electoral votes have shifted to Bush states.
Nominating Dean or Clark is asking for a repeat of 2000 - a tie, caused by forcing the candidates to compete for the SAME VOTERS - previous Bush voters and the 5% of the electorate that voted for Gore but wished he were more conservative.
I think this is a losing proposition.
I think the most Democratic candidate will beat Bush most soundly.
I think Dennis Kucinich is our best bet for taking back the White House, and actually having a plan for what to do with it once we get it back.
Dan Brown Saint Paul, Minnesota
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