NBC poll: Dean and Clark vs. Bush

[CMT]

NBC took weekend polls on Saturday, November 14 or pre-Saddam and Sunday, November 15, post-Saddam. It shows a higher swing to Bush on Sunday but that is to be expected with all the whoring by the media.

Against a generic Democrat on Saturday Bush was winning 46-40 with 6% depends and 7% not sure.

On Sunday, Bush actually drops two-points to 44% and Generic democrat falls 8-points to 33%. While depends goes up to 9% and Not Sure is up to 12%.

Against the two leading candidates for the nomination on Saturday, Bush was ahead of Dean by 51-39 percent. On Sunday, the Bush advantage is 52-31--only a one-point hike for Bush while undecideds/not sure gained the most ground.

Against Wes Clark on Saturday Bush was ahead of the General by a 50-34 percent margin. On Sunday he is ahead 53-28.

If you combine the two days (equal numbers of people interviewed)
Bush is ahead of Dean 51-35. Bush is ahead of Clark 52-31.

It is probable that this Bush bounce will not last as already we are seeing continued violence and instability in Iraq despite the capture of Saddam--and the Democrats will begin closing the gap again.

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

[Renew Deal]

1. There is also the Gore bounce.

These numbers are tough to nail down because there are multiple major events.

[papau]

2. The polls do not seem to have moved for last 2-3 months

The polls do not seem to have moved for last 2-3 months


White House 2004: General Election

CBS News/New York Times Poll. Dec. 14-15, 2003. "If George W. Bush runs for reelection in 2004, do you think you will probably vote for George W. Bush or probably vote for the Democratic candidate?"

Bush Democrat Can'tSayUntilChosen Won'tVote Don'tKnow
% % % % %
12/14-15/03 44 40 8 1 7
12/10-13/03 42 41 11 2 4
11/10-13/03 41 43 12 1 3
10/20-21/03 46 34 16 0 4
9/28 - 10/1/03 44 44 7 1 4


NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll Dec. 14, 2003."If President Bush runs for reelection in 2004, do you think you will probably vote for President Bush or probably vote for the Democratic candidate?"

Bush Democrat AnotherParty'sCandidate Depends NotSure
% % % % %
12/14/03 44 33 1 9 12
12/13/03 46 40 1 6 7
11/03 43 40 2 8 8
9/03 42 40 2 9 7

"If the next election for president were held today, and George W. Bush were running as the Republican candidate and were the Democratic candidate, for whom would you vote?"

GeorgeWBush HowardDean Depends Neither NotSure
% % % % %
12/14/03 52 31 3 4 10
12/13/03 51 39 1 4 5
11/03 50 35 2 6 8

GeorgeWBush WesleyClark Depends Neither NotSure
% % % % %
12/14/03 53 28 2 4 13
12/13/03 50 34 2 4 10
11/03 49 37 2 5 7

Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates. Dec. 11-12, 2003."Suppose the next general election for president were being held TODAY and you had to choose between George W. Bush, the Republican, and , the Democrat -- who would you vote for?" If "Other" or "Undecided": "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Bush, the Republican, or , the Democrat?" Names rotated

GeorgeBush HowardDean Other/Undecided
% % %
12/11-12/03 49 42 9
11/6-7/03 49 45 6
10/23-24/03 49 43 8

GeorgeBush WesleyClark Other/Undecided
% % %
12/11-12/03 49 43 8
11/6-7/03 48 45 7
10/23-24/03 49 43 8
.

GeorgeBush JohnKerry Other/Undecided
% % %
12/11-12/03 51 41 8
11/6-7/03 49 45 6
10/23-24/03 50 42 8

GeorgeBush JohnEdwards Other/undecided
% % %
12/11-12/03 51 40 9
7/10-11/03 51 39 10
.

"In general, would you like to see George W. Bush reelected to another term as president, or not?"

Yes No Don'tKnow
% % %
12/11-12/03 45 50 5
11/6-7/03 44 50 6
10/30-31/03 45 46 9
10/23-24/03 46 47 7