Howard Dean will have NEGATIVE coattails..........

[TakebackAmerica]

This my opinion. This is not meant to be an attack on Dean.

The Facts:
7 of the 8 major Seante races are in GOP states.
14 of the top 15 House races are in GOP states
Dean can't win in Alaska, Oklahoma, The Carolinas and Georgia

My prediction:



If Dean is the nominee...........

New York Times, November 2, 2004.

Howard Dean narrowly defeated George Bush in a bruising battle.
Dean's vctory did not help other Democrats.
GOP used a Southern fear of Dean to pick up 8 House seats and 4 Senate Seats.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

If Clark is the nominee............

New York Times, November 2, 2004.


Wesley Clark defeated Geroge Bush in a stunning upset. Clark won 50.2-47.6. Clark Defeated Bush, 291-247 in the Electoral College.
Democrats across the nation reaped the benifits of Clark's win, taking back the Seante and gaining 6 seats in the House.

[TrueAmerican]

1. Americans, it starts here to take back America

Vote for Clark!
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=104&topic_id=929481&mesg_id=929481

[thebigidea]

2. and if Lieberman is the nominee, we may have already won 10 million!

[TakebackAmerica]

4. !

LOL!

[mzmolly]

3. Ms Cleo?

s'that you?



:hi:

[thebigidea]

5. LA TIMES: Democratic Nominee Decided by Lone Internet Psychic

[mzmolly]

7. he he... She was wrong about my relationship I tell you...

And I want a refund! ;)

[TakebackAmerica]

8. Well...

LOL!

[TakebackAmerica]

6. nah....

If you truly want a liberal America vote for Clark.

[mzmolly]

10. Nah, I'll take a Democrat who never voted for Dick Nixon thanks.

The recent 'liberal' conversions are not quite as impressive to me as a record of liberal accomplishments.

But if Clark should pull ahead in the primaries, he's got my vote in the end.

[Ficus]

19. nah...

if you TRULY want a liberal vote for Kucinich. But, hey, you probably want Clark because you want a Democratic President.

[w4rma]

40. FTC Charges "Miss Cleo" Promoters with Deceptive Advertising, Billing and…

FTC Charges "Miss Cleo" Promoters with Deceptive Advertising, Billing and Collection Practices
http://www.ftc.gov/opa/2002/02/accessresource.htm

:evilgrin:

[The Zanti Regent]

9. Clark will have the BIGGEST BLEEPIN COATTAILS you'll ever see!

Clark will save at least 4 of those 5 Southern Senate seats, Add PA, Alaska and Illinois and there will be several other upsets, too!

I also believe he'll hit the jackpot in the house, pulling in up to 50 House seats, I really belive Hastert and Hyde are going to go down along with a bunch of other surprises!

[TakebackAmerica]

13. Right on!

the DNC should give Clark a medal of honor for sav ing those House seats.

Dean is sadly poisen in the South

[TakebackAmerica]

11. Dean= No coatails

[mzmolly]

12. Funny, the polls indicate otherwise. Voters = coatails...

http://pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm

NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Robert Teeter (R). Dec. 14, 2003. Asked of Democrats, and non-Democrats who said they would vote in a Democratic presidential primary (from a total sample of 512 adults nationwide).

"Let me mention some people who might seek the Democratic nomination for president in 2004. If the next Democratic primary for president were being held today, for which one of the following candidates would you vote: ?" If "Not sure," ask: "Well, which way do you lean?"

Howard Dean 25
Wesley Clark 11
Richard Gephardt 11
Joe Lieberman 9
John Kerry 5
Dennis Kucinich 4
John Edwards 3
Carol Moseley Braun 2
Al Sharpton 2

[TakebackAmerica]

14. Electoral Math!

How is Dean doing in Alaska?

[mzmolly]

16. Were focused on New Hampshire right now...

crossing one bridge at a time. :*

[dsc]

18. I'll strip naked in Times Square

if any Democrat wins Alaska.

[w4rma]

41. Are the other eight Democratic candidates riding Dean's coattails?

Are the other nine Democratic presidential candidates riding Dean's coattails in polls against Bush?

Dean has been the most consistant and outspoken critic of the Bush administration of the Democratic candidates. Bush's polling numbers have been dropping ever since Dean begin being taken seriously by the media as a candidate. Unlike the other candidates (not including Clark who has only been in the race for a few days) most or all of Dean's attacks have been either direct or indirect attacks on the Bush administration.

...
When asked which Democratic candidate was doing the best job presenting his or her plans for the country and explaining how those plans differ from President Bush’s, voters say Dean is the candidate doing the best at making his case (13 percent), but a plurality says “none” (19 percent) of the candidates are explaining their positions and 35 percent are unsure.
...
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,98328,00.html
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=417033

[slinkerwink]

15. your opinions aren't based on the recent three polls that has Dean in the

lead among voters-------(voters create coattials)

[TakebackAmerica]

17. There are no close races in Dean states!

Is Oklahoma a Dean state?

[slinkerwink]

23. it's just one state where Clark has a huge lead over the dozens of states

that Dean is leading in.

20. this is all too hypothetical for me

House and Senate races have many factors involved in them, Coattails is just one of them.



Later in the game, closer to the convention, think about these things ok?

[oasis]

31. "convention time" may be too late to think about it. Many voters seek

a balance of power between the executive and legislative branches of government. I can't imagine folks in the "fly over" states voting for both a liberal president and liberal or left leaning legislators.

33. sure I agree

I do agree.
I didn't say convention time, though, I said closer to the convention.

[oasis]

35. Right. Sorry about the misquote.(n/t)

[ibegurpard]

21. As you said

It's simply your opinion, nothing more. No quantifiable way to measure how Dean or Clark might do. I certainly am not going to flame you for having the opinion that Dean will not do well and that Clark would but I don't agree.

[Hep]

22. I have to question your premises

Can't win the Carolinas? I think he can.

And Dean is working hard for other democrats. In fact, he's willing to help ALL democrats. Anyone running is welcome to visit the headquarters in Vermont where they offer workshops on Dean's internet organization and fundraising models.

If Dean doesn't help other democrats, it isn't because he didn't try.

[CMT]

24. my prediction

November 3, 2002

DEAN DEFEATS BUSH
Dems regain control of Congress

Democrats Howard Dean of Vermont and Bob Graham of Florida defeated President George W. Bush and Vice President Richard Cheney in a close election which brought out the highest turnout of voters percentage wise since the 1960 Kennedy-Nixon election.

The Dean/Graham ticket won the election by winning every state that Vice President Al Gore had won in 2000 and adding Florida, West Virginia, Ohio, New Hampshire, Arizona, and Nevada to win the electoral college by a dicisive 326-212 margin and the popular vote by a tighter 51%-46% over the GOP ticket.

The Democrats seemed to be aided by strong turnouts among key constituencies including: Unions, Senior citizens, African-Americans, and Latinos. A coordinated campaign between the Democratic Congressional Committees and the Dean Grassroots which numbered over two million spent the last two weeks mounting one of the most organized get out the vote efforts in recent memory.

This GOTV effort helps explain how the Democrats managed to win back the House narrowly by picking up 14 seats. For instance, Dean/Graham carried Iowa with 55% of the vote and the Dems picked up 2 house seats. The Democrats were also very successful in picking up some open seats in the west specifically in California, Oregon, Washington, Colorado, and Arizona.

The Senate was expected to be a huge challenge for the Democrats with retirements in several Southern states, but strong Democratic candidates in South Carolina (Inez Tennenbaum), North Carolina (Erskine Bowles) beat back GOP challengers--despite Mr. Bush's winning these states. Mr. Graham who spent most of the last two weeks of his campaign in Florida also helped the Democrats carry his senate seat.

Democrats did lose Senate seat in Georgia but were successful in winning Lousiana which has bucked the GOP trend in the last three elections in Senate and Governor races.

Elsewhere, Senator Arlen Specter was defeated in Pennsylvania by Rep. Joe Hoeffel. Democrats also elected a Democratic senator in Illinois, helped by a strong Dean victory in the state. GOP Senator Muskowski was defeated by former Gov. Tony Knowles in Alaska. In Colorado, Senator Ben Night-horse Campbell was defeated by Rep. Mark (?) Udall. In all, the Democrats gained a surprising four senate seats as all of their incumbents were re-elected. They now control the Senate with 52 Seats to 47 for the GOP and 1 Indpendent who organizes with the Democrats.

[Padraig18]

25. No crystal ball.

11 months is an eternity, and I don't think anyone can do more than make a SWAG about whether or not a given candidate will ahve 'coattails', IMO.

[prolesunited]

26. What do you base this grand prediction on?

Historical trends? Favorable positions in those states? Demographic trends?

I would be open to listening to an actual analysis, but just cause you put words down on the screen doesn't make them true nor does it give them any legitimacy.

Remember, we're smarter than the freepers. These tactics don't work on us. :-)

[Scott Lee]

27. Pure speculation

The facts are that Dean is making gains in the South - much to the shock and awe of the antiDean gang who desperately wanted his Southern strategy to backfire on him (sorry guys, life aint fair).

[quaker bill]

36. Pure speculation

is about the nicest terms I could put to this drivel. Thanks for being polite when in this instance it is clearly uncalled for.

[MGKrebs]

28. The following Georgia politicians disagree:

All endorse Dean:

Councilman H Lamara Willis Atlanta/Fulton County
CEO Vernon Jones Dekalb County
Fulton Comm Bill Edwards Fulton County
Dekalb Comm Burrell Ellis Dekalb County
Dekalb Comm Lou Walker Dekalb County
Dekalb Comm Henry "Hank" Johnson Dekalb County
Dekalb Comm Larry Johnson Dekalb County
Lithonia Mayor Darrell Honoree Dekalb County
State Sen Sam Zamarippa Fulton County
State Sen Gloria Butler Dekalb County
State Sen Valencia Seay Fulton County
State Rep Nan Orrock Fulton County
State Rep Stan Watson Dekalb County
State Rep Hugh Floyd Gwinnett County
State Rep Billy Mitchell Dekalb & Gwinnett
State Rep John Noel Fulton & Cobb
State Rep Roger Bruce Fulton
State Rep George Maddox Dekalb
State Rep Pedro Marin Gwinnett
State Rep Curt Thompson Gwinnett
State Rep Howard Mosby Fulton
State Rep Ron Sailor Dekalb
State Rep Pam Stevenson Dekalb

[BenZodiac]

29. Well...

I'm sure the right-wingers will be very happy if the election is Clark vs. Bush.

That way, no matter which one wins, a Republican will take office!

[MGKrebs]

30. Ooooh, probably need to edit that.

I believe that is against the rules.
Quick!

Besides, we don' need to go that route to get the job done.
Welcome!

[oasis]

32. I have no objection to citizens or candidates who were former Republicans.

Those who focus on getting Bush out of the White House cannot be distracted by side issues like party purity.

[Orangepeel]

34. Republicans always turnout. Democrats don't.

We only get high turnout when Democratic voters are nagged into voting by people walking neighborhoods and making phone calls. Howard Dean will have the volunteers necessary to make that happen. High Democratic turnout = coattails.

[_Jumper_]

37. You're right

:scared:

[zulchzulu]

38. If Dean gets nom, say bye-bye to 5 senate seats (and more)

First of all, I sincerely think we would give the White House to Bush, lose all the Senator seats from the South and God knows what else.

Just my opinion, but it would be a bloodbath for the Democrats.

[HuckleB]

39. Stop criticizing Dean's wardrobe, please.

[maxanne]

42. according to your theory

no Democrat can win, so why bother?

:eyes:

[Cronus Protagonist]

43. If you can predict politics that far ahead

Maybe you could get into meteorology - I hear they can't tell if it's going to rain tomorrow and could use some of your skills.

FUCK BUSH Buttons, Stickers & Magnets