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Edited on Thu Dec-18-03 03:17 AM by Enjolras
With all of the focus on the Democratic presidential candidates, has anyone given thought to how a Democratic president, assuming one can actually get elected, would govern? The new president, whomever it is, will have to deal with a very hostile legislature.
The House of Representatives is firmly in GOP hands, and that won't change soon. The Senate leans, ever so slightly (by a mere 1 1/2 votes), to the right. But with 4 of 5 southern senators retiring or leaving office at the end of current terms and another (W. Va.'s Robert Byrd, 86) a stroke or coronary waiting to happen being Democrats, the Republicans stand an excellent chance to solidify their hold on the upper house. I don't see them acheiving the magic (fillibuster-proof) number of seats next fall, but 56 seats instead of the current 51 would make things a heck of a lot less complicated for them. And you can bet that factors heavily in Karl Rove's daily search for ways to turn America into a one party state.
So what do we do about it? Has anyone (besides, presumably, Tom Daschle) been able to tear their thoughts away from the compelling, yet narrowly focused, race for the Democratic presidential nomination long enough to give serious thought to a Senate strategy?
Here are a few of my thoughts. Of the southern Democratic Senators who will be leaving, Edwards, Hollings, Graham, and Miller, only Graham stands a serious chance of being replaced by a fellow Democrat, and even that race will be a dogfight. Winning the other 3 would require Zell Miller-type, blue-dog centrists who would be of little benefit to the Democrats once in office.
So where can Dems pick up seats? Taking a long-term approach, over the next 5 years, every senate seat will be up for grabs at some point, and I don't think it's too soo to start looking for weaknesses on the GOP team. One state whose opportunities intrigue me is Pennsylvania. It has a Repug governor and 2 Repug senators, including the vitriolic extremist Rick Santorum, yet it's not an overly conservative commonwealth. Gore won it fairly solidly in 2000, and it has a lot of union members who have lost, or are about to lose, their jobs.
Wisconsin, once a bastion of liberalism, is now a moderate state. But that's better than a solidly red state. At least it's in play. So when is Herb Kohl up for re-election? What's true of Wisconsin is true of Minnesota, but Norm Coleman has a good 5 years to go. Still, good organization and planning takes time.
Arizona, typical of the southwest, leans toward a libertarian brand of conservatism. It has 2 GOP Senators, one of whom (McCain) knowingly irritates Bush & co., and does so with political impunity. It seems that Arizonans value independence. Is it not possible to find libertarian-leaning Democrats to compete in the Grand Canyon state?
I've also heard that Missouri is politically mixed, though that's a little hard to believe in the state that elected John Ashcroft several times. But if true, when is Kit Bond up for re-election?
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