Bush Bounce

[Barbara917]

Bush has received a bounce in the latest polls most likely a result of the recent capture of Sadam Hussein. Alhough when asked which issues are more important to them Americans answer more frequently that domestic issues such as jobs, health care and education are most important I think this latest poll is evidence that despite what people might THINK is more important to them they are in reality most influenced by Bush's perceived/or lack thereof success in the war on terror and national security. Never mind that Sadam Hussein has no connection to Al-Qaeda, capturing Sadam becomes a feather in Bush's cap. In spite of what we might think influences us most the reality is national security is the major issue of the 2004 election whether Americans are conscious of it or not. I have no doubt it will be the Republican strategy to force the debate into a referendum on national security.

CNN reported new polls this morning showing head to head matchups of Bush vs. Dean and Bush vs. Clark. The numbers are not good but are a strong indicator of which candidate has a better shot at sending Bush back to Crawford. For those democrats who are truly ABB (anybody but Bush) supporters, if your priorities are to see that Bush loses his job in 2005 it is time to look at the candidates pragmatically and support the one who has the best chance of unseating Bush.

Bush 60% Dean 37%
Bush 56% Clark 40%

[jonoboy]

1. Wesley Clark=American Hero & Patriot

[LiberalBushFan]

2. Clark sits on BOARDS

BOARDS

Edit to say something actually relevant:
If you say he's more electable, they'll say that's not the way to choose a candidate and that Clark is too right wing.
If you say he's more liberal than Dean, they'll say "of course! we know that obviously! but Dean's a fighter!"

[maddezmom]

5. Clark SAT on boards n/t

[maddezmom]

3. bush* just needs to be bounced out of office n/t

[0007]

4. CNN? who can take those whores seriously?

junior and his proped up numbers will soon be falling again! Wanna bet?

[LiberalBushFan]

6. they're whores because of this little poll

But when they give Dean 99.999% of the coverage, it's "That's what happens when you have frontrunner status!" Either the media wants Dean, of they have no agenda whatsoever. Which do you think is more likely?

[Barbara917]

9. Gallup is the poll they were citing

Here is the link to the Gallup poll analysis

http://www.gallup.com/poll/releases/pr031218.asp

But this is not just a one time phenomennon. Clark has consistently polled higher in head to head matchups against Bush than the other candidates. However, if Gallup is not a reputable enough polling service for you I would be happy to look at any reputable poll that shows differently.

[dusty64]

11. I believe NOTHING

the corporate Pravda tells me. It seems like a desperate attempt to make their "glorious leader" inevitable in 2004. Hopefully ("voting" machines willing) they are in for a rude awakening next year. Those head to head numbers are WAY out of whack with every other "poll" I've seen.

[NicoleM]

7. What's the MOE?

[Barbara917]

13. Quoted from the Gallup article link

"These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,000 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Dec. 15-16, 2003. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls."

[Coldgothicwoman]

8. Well IMHO

ABB means that no matter who wins the primaries, we will support them. As for 'pragmatism' in selecting our primaries' candidate, though, I'm not buying that.

I don't understand the obsession with the Dean/Clark supporters constantly going head to head calling on all of us to support their candidate. If one of them wins, fine, and I'll be behind them 100%. But this is only the primary season! Let's see who wins, them give them our support. Until then, I'm not going to consider 'pragmatic' as 'whoever comes the closest to *'.

Kucinich in '04. :)

[LiberalBushFan]

10. this is EXACTLY what i was talking about in post #2

n/m

[Barbara917]

12. Hmmm.....

If all we needed were the DU democratic diehards to loyally get behind the democratic nominee I don't believe we would have any fears that Bush would be defeated in 2004. Unfortuantely, I don't believe we can afford to be quite that idealistic.

We will be needing a few more votes than the democratic faithful to turn this election. We might need a few independents, disaffected Republicans, southern voters, and various other swing voters to turn this election. We can bury our heads in the sand and nominate anyone we idealistically please. In an ideal world my first choice would probably be Kucinich (Dennis rocks) but I think we should be keeping our eye on the prize - The White House - and how to win it.

Although I highlighted Dean and Clark, Clark polls better than any of the other candidates. That is my point.

[KharmaTrain]

14. I'm Noticing A Good Trend...

Every time WhittleAss does some PR stunt, the polls are rushed out trumpeting his "leadership" and how "we love him" et al...in the wake of 9/11 it was 80 plus and for weeks on end...by the time of the invasion it was 70s and bounces ran about a week...then the war and that silly aircraft landing stunt...that was the last real bounce and it's been downhill since.

The Thanksgiving "surprise" visit bounce barely lasted a week and didn't even take the doofus to 60%. Capturing Saddam is big (and would have been a far bigger bounce in June than today)...and is short-lived once the media focus goes back to the shootings and deaths in Iraq and Saddam becomes a liability, not an asset.

We're still 8 solid months before this war will start really have a bearing on *'s selection chances...we're gonna see a lot more PR stunts, but as long as the war drags and there's no real big, good news coming out (and other than capturing Osama, there ain't much else), the bad war news will drone on and people will start wondering why we got in and how we get out...Saddam will mean nothing.

[HFishbine]

15. Exactly -- a downward staircase

[KharmaTrain]

17. An Investory Friend Calls That "A Dead Cat Bounce" eom

[MIMStigator]

16. Dean can't win.

All that press and Gore endorsement and Dean still isn't the front runner against *

Democrats will be doomed if Dean is nominated