Jobless claims fall to 350,000

[leftyandproud]

I really don't see how this is happening considering the massive outsourcing to cheap labor countries today.

article..


http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/031218/table_u_s_jobless_claims_fell_in_latest_week_1.html

[Orrin_73]

1. How reliable is the article??

deanforamerica.com
clark04.com
kucinich.us
sharpton2004.org

[leftyandproud]

4. I dunno

it looks like a straight printout of government stats...same stuff they always use

[ET Awful]

2. Just seasonal fluctuation. . . .

Wait until mid-January when all the seasonal holiday jobs end and that number starts climbing again.

Notice that it lists continued claims as unavailable as well.

That number isn't an indicator of anything except seasonal fluctuation.

[Frodo]

6. The numbers are seasonally adjusted.

So any changes in mid January will be ON TOP of seasonal layoffs.

But the one week number is mostly irrelevant. The four-week moving average is the number to follow. The one week number is too volatile.

[boxster]

3. Thanks....

They always claim that these figures are "seasonally adjusted", but the accuracy of that adjustment depends on the person or organization doing the adjustment.

They certainly aren't indicative of job growth, but the media and BushCo will claim they are.

[madrchsod]

5. well there`s alot of

people who ran out of unemployment and they`re no longer counted. also the job market has stabilized somewhat. the next round of lay-offs will come early next year. and of course they changed the way reporting is done...so it`s wait till the revised numbers..

[Frodo]

8. Time for my weekly reply.

You don't stop being counted when you run out of unemployment. The "insured unemployment rate" is something like 2.7%. The rest of the 5.9% reported rate is made up of people who don't qualify for benefits.

Someone is bound to hop on here and yell about "U3" vs. "U6", etc. Ignore him/her. All measures of unemployment from U1 to u6 include those who have run out of benefits. Unemployment insurance is not a factor in these calculations.

[mhr]

12. Wrong Frodo, Once Off The Dole, You Are Off The Rolls

I have been off unemployment for 2 and 1/2 years!

The state of Texas has no knowledge of my employment or unemployment status.

How could they? I no longer call to report and I have not received any income for 40 months.

There are literally thousands of ex-professionals in a similar situation.

If anyone knows of a professional high-tech job, please contact me via PM.

[Frodo]

17. How many times do we have to go through this mhr?

They don't need to know about you personally. It isn't a report of every individual person who is unemployed and there are LOTS of people counted who don't qualify for benefits. It's a SURVEY of 60,000 households that are supposed to be representative of the country at large. If YOU were one of the people in their survey, you would represent 1700 people (or so) in your same situation.

The "official" number for those who are unemployed and ON benefits is about 2.7% Don't you think THAT would be the number they would be touting if it was all they were counting?

They don't get ANY information from the state of Texas, so it doesn't matter to them what Texas knows or doesn't know (Now, TX may keep their own figures in their own way, internal state numbers may be different).

And THIS number is just people filing for first time benefits, so none of THEM will be counted on this report NEXT WEEK, let alone when their benefits run out.

And please don't go on again about "shilling for the GOP" or the like. The facts are the facts. I don't need to live outside fo reality to be a Democrat.

[Name removed]

16. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Frodo]

18. WRONG mhr. A thousand times wrong.

Care to provide a link. I've given you half a dozen over the last few weeks.

Some people think that to get these figures on unemployment the Government uses the number of persons filing claims for unemployment insurance (UI) benefits under State or Federal Government programs. But some people are still jobless when their benefits run out, and many more are not eligible at all or delay or never apply for benefits. So, quite clearly, UI information cannot be used as a source for complete information on the number of unemployed.

- clip -
Other people think that the Government counts every unemployed person each month. To do this, every home in the country would have to be contacted--just as in the population census every 10 years. This procedure would cost way too much and take far too long. Besides, people would soon grow tired of having a census taker come to their homes every month, year after year, to ask about job-related activities.

Because unemployment insurance records relate only to persons who have applied for such benefits, and since it is impractical to actually count every unemployed person each month, the Government conducts a monthly sample survey called the Current Population Survey (CPS) to measure the extent of unemployment in the country. The CPS has been conducted in the United States every month since 1940 when it began as a Work Projects Administration project. It has been expanded and modified several times since then. As explained later, the CPS estimates, beginning in 1994, reflect the results of a major redesign of the survey.

[Frodo]

19. A few more paragraphs from the BLS

"Statistics on insured unemployment in the United States are collected as a byproduct of unemployment insurance (UI) programs. Workers who lose their jobs and are covered by these programs typically file claims which serve as notice that they are beginning a period of unemployment. Claimants who qualify for benefits are counted in the insured unemployment figures. "

"Some countries base their estimates of total unemployment on the number of persons filing claims for or receiving UI payments or the number of persons registered with government employment offices as available for work. These data are also available in the United States, but they are not used to measure total unemployment because they exclude several important groups. In terms of employed workers, the principal groups not covered are self-employed workers, unpaid family workers, workers in certain not-for-profit organizations, and several other, primarily seasonal, worker categories. "

[Frodo]

20. A quick education on the various "official" unemplyment numbers

U1 - counts only persons unemployed more than 13 weeks
U3 - The "official" number
U4 - Adds "discouraged" workers. Those who have ceased looking for jobs even though they WANT to work and are ABLE to work.
U5 - Adds "marginally attached" workers. They are usually interested in working, but are not ACTIVELY seeking a job but would be able to work in the next four weeks (day care issues etc.)
U6 - This number is actually broken into two sub-categories
U6a - Adds "Underemployed" workers. Those who have a part-time job but want more hours and can't get them. But they have not actually looked for more hours in the survey period.
U6b - Just like U6a except the HAVE looked for full-time work during the survey period.

Just for fun, there are also the following:

CU4 is the total unemployment plus hidden unemployment as a percentage of labour force plus hidden unemployment
CU7 is the hours-adjusted unemployment rate
CU8 is the hours-adjusted measure of CU4


I'll repeat. NONE of these numbers are affected by unemployment insurance rolls.

[Snellius]

7. This figure seems about the average

.

[Renew Deal]

9. The jobless rolls

haven't caught up with the news yet.

[KharmaTrain]

10. Wake Me Up In February

Let's see how many claims are filed in January...that'll set the tone of things to come.

A lot of seasonal hiring going on, and lots falling off the roles. But the rich are doing just fine...the market cracked 10,000 and big money is being made...the RNC coffers are flowing big time...all is well in the world. :barf:

[JanMichael]

11. Holiday temp hiring?

No time to study the issue but I think that even bad economic times have an uptick in November/December.

[Frodo]

14. New hiring does not affect this number.

At least not directly. And the seasonal adjustments is supposed to balance out Christmas hiring anyway.

This is supposed to only be those individuals who are filing for first time unemployment benefits. It doesn't count those who quit or leave without benefits and it doesn't count new jobs (except to the extent that you don't file for unemployment if you go straight to a new job and most(?) companies don't hire people at the same time they are laying them off.

[prolesunited]

13. The jobless rate is not a true measure of the health

of people's pocketbooks. How many union and manufacturing jobs have been eliminated — you know, the kind that might actually a wage one might be able to live on?

You can't replace a $20 an hour with benefits job with a $7 an hour with no benefits one and call it even.

Does anybody have any reliable statistics on the exodus of quality jobs in favor of low-paying service sector jobs?

[sandnsea]

15. 2000, claims 308,000, a tight job market

According to this article.
http://money.cnn.com/2000/11/02/economy/jobless/

Also,
"Continued claims were reported at 2,178,000 for the Oct. 21 week, the latest period for which data are available, down from a revised 2,196,000 in the prior period."

Continued claims in the yahoo article 3,300,000+

We aren't anywhere near good news on the job market.

[dansolo]

21. Unemployment benefit extension expires 12/31

Be prepared for the numbers to drop in January. But will it be reported that the extra 13 weeks of unemployment benefits will expire on 12/31?

[creativelcro]

22. Easy: people give up looking for jobs and wait a little longer...

[Maeve]

23. Number in subject is wrong--353K--nt

[CMT]

24. amazing how everything seems to be falling into place for Bush

just before the election year begins?

[Frodo]

25. Not necessarily.

Not if we start spinning "it's not NEARLY good enough considering what we SPENT for it" instead of "LA LA LA I CAN'T HEAR YOU! Things are actually getting WORSE!"

[JCMach1]

26. Law of diminishing numbers

Most organizations are already 'lean'...

Statistically there is VERY little difference between 350 and 370k new jobless claims.

This will go up in Jan/Feb after and average to bad XMAS season. Higher inventories will force further cutbacks. First quarter 2004 growth will drop quite a bit... I predict 2.5-4%... I suspect at the lower end of that is where we will be by the end of the year.


Fear not, the Bush Stagnation continues.