"Are we on the right track or the wrong track?"

[kentuck]

This is a powerful political question because it removes partisanship and name-calling from the question. And this will be the determinant factor in who wins the presidency next November. After the capture of Saddam, one national poll showed that Bush went up from 43% to 56% in response to the above question. That was a temporary bump because of a temporary event. Other events will happen between now and November - some negative and some positive.

However, the above question has a deep psychological significance. There is no automatic response of yes or no. Each voter must search his soul, at least a little, to reach a response where he is honest with himself. Recent events notwithstanding, their responses will relate to their lives at the time the question is asked. I do not get the feeling that the majority of Americans are whistling, "Happy Days Are Here Again"

[jfxgillis]

1. Besides me, I know there's another genius in the world.

That would you, kentuck.

Before the structure of an election is set by the naming of candidates and the emergence of salient issues, questions like that are the only way to get a read.

Asking a Bush/Dean" or "Bush/Kerry" question is ridiculous.

I just checked out the polling from exactly 12 years ago. The Elder Bush had a MINIMUM twenty-point lead--up to thirty or more in some cases--on every single Democratic challenger. It was 50-29 for Bush over Clinton, FYI.

On the other hand, it's getting close enough to start taking Bush's "hard re-elect" number seriously, and that doesn't look good for Bush either (barring the temporary bump you noted in right track/wrong track).

[kentuck]

3. Thanks jfxgillis !

I think most Americans feel that our country is on the "wrong" track. Most Americans are concerned about the direction we are going. They will not vote for someone they think is going in the wrong direction. I feel confident for the election in 2004.

[jfxgillis]

5. Well, I at least feel confident that

Bush is eminently beatable. I'n not confident that he WILL be beaten yet, only that he COULD.

It's amazing how many Bushie correspondents I have who absolutely refuse to believe that I'm anything but CRUSHED. I show 'em the numbers and they still don't buy it. I tell them, "Look, George the Elder was beating ALL the Democrats worse than George the Younger is now" and they still don't buy it.

I'm convinced the GOP is subconsciously scared to death.

[wanderingbear]

2. This country has been on the wrong track

for quite some time now.

[sweetheart]

4. yes, agreed n/t