What does your gut tell you about 2004?

[Robb]

Poll question: What does your gut tell you about 2004?

Right here, right now. Someone puts a squirt gun to your head and asks you. Who's sitting in the White House?

[Cleita]

1. We win, but the Supreme Court overturns it because

ousting Bush would compromise homeland security. :puke:

[mdmc]

36. them

but voted us. i couldn't stand to see us lose, even in a du poll. my guess, 2004 won't be pretty unless Dennis Kucinich or Wes Clark are involved and on fire. We need all the outsiders on board or this year will be awful.

[underpants]

2. After seeing the ABC News short bio on him my gut told me....

That it should be Kerry but then my gut has always told me that.

[GreenArrow]

26. My gut says the same thing

A Kerry/Clark ticket rolls into the White House, Jan. 2005. Over the weekend, I bet a cousin 10 bucks that this would happen; he is insistent that Dean has the nomination wrapped up and that he will lose big to Dubya. If the Dean scenario comes to pass, I forsee the same thing, but I still believe that Dean is going to implode/be derailed and Kerry somehow ends up with the nomination.

[Scimmio]

78. one tank ride away from Dukakis '88

My personal preference would be Kerry/Edwards or Kerry/Clark. I think Howard Dean is a hell of a Democrat and hope for nothing but the best. I support whoever comes away with the nod next year. That all being said...
My biggest fear on a Dean nomination next year is him visiting the troops while on the campaign trail and doing a tank ride straight back to 1988. It's an irrational fear. He seems a better man. Still, I have that fear...

[Jacobin]

31. Psst. Your underpants thingy is scrolling across my screen as

a little red cross.

Did Ashcrack censor you?

:crazy:

[Name removed]

51. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[brainshrub]

3. The only reason I answered "them"

is because of BBV.

[FDRrocks]

38. thats why I answered them for the same reason.

But then again... apparently it doesn't really matter! :eyes:

[Superfly]

4. My gut says "lay off the beer and chips for a while"

ooof-da. Football season is hard work.

[everythingsxen]

5. Other-

After * suspends the Constitution and puts a nix on the National Elections... well stuff will get real messy.

[Bandit]

6. I'm wrong often but my gut says Bush* will be history

I couldn't even venture a guess at who will be our candidate but whomever it is they will squash Bush* like a bug. People I talk to don't like what is happening in America today.

[Bertha Venation]

7. Us. Otherwise, my gut tells me to move to Canada

before they come for me & all my GLBT pals.

[joeybee12]

8. Other--my gut is very fickle--we should win UNLESS we beat

ourselves, and that probabitlity is very high. The election is ours to lose.

[Indiana Democrat]

9. Squirt gun?

I'd tell them it's none of their business.

Real gun?

President Dean.

[MadHound]

10. Already making book, though I really hate it

Bush is going to win, one way or the other. Standard wager, a shot of your favorite. If you win, it will be the shot of joy, if I win, it will be the shot of dispair. Other wagers accepted on a case by case basis(and God forbid, if Bush wins, we will need lots and lots of cases).

[Dragon Turtle]

11. Unsure,

but not too optimistic because of BBV.

[UrbScotty]

12. Call me an optimist (I appreciate the compliment), but...

I predict Dean will win 291-247 in the Electoral College.

[TheUnknownPoster]

13. That's pretty specific

What states do you see who winning?

Right now my gut tells me Dean, or maybe Clark or Gephardt, or maybe even Lieberman will be the nominee.

Whoever it is I still see Bush winning in the general election, narrowly but not as close as in 2000. The economy's turning around, plus he's captured Saddam and disarmed Qaddafi.

All that makes him look pretty strong, but who knows what will happen in a year.

[napi21]

66. Remember it's almost a year away!

I still remember all the people I worked with telling me how much they disliked GHB back in 1992, and with ratings in the high 80's there's no way he could be defeated! You do remember what happened, don't you?

I look for this Bush rally to be short term. There are still a lot of people unemployed because of greedy Co.s outsourcing jobs out of the country. There are a lot of older people, and their kids, mot happy with the Medicare bill that was forced through.

Just wait. I predict Dean will win, but I'm not willing to be quite as specific as saying by how many states. I also think the Pubs will lose seats in the House and Senate.

[rasputin1952]

75. Bush didn't capture Saddam...

he was handed over by the Kurds.

The economy is not turning around, just the stock market is; and that is normally cyclical.

the bush administration has fumbled everything it has done...and as the results come forward...bush will be go down in flames.

O8)

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

14. It's a long, long, way to November.

And, as the Chines proverb says, we "...live in interesting times." There are so many possible scenarios that could affect the election either way that it's truly mindboggling.

My gut feeling says "wait and see."

[ThomWV]

15. My Optimism is Not Great

I have to be honest about it, I am certain that unless something drastic happens we will not win. I think that we've only got one chance at the best, that being Clark, and that no other candidate will stand a chance. Even if the economy only goes flat rather than improving - which is inevidble - and american interests are attacked over seas I still see Bush winning. You put a big bang inside the US, another attack, and the vote can go either way because there are an awful lot of folks who will still rally behind the President against attack, probably more of them than there are of us. The rest, us, who would find such a breach of the public trust, the President's duty to defend the USA, that he would have to stand for impeachment would be in the minority I fear. More polorization.

Thom

[Drew the Independent]

32. Impeachment?

Are you suggesting that should another attack occur on U.S. soil, that the President should be impeached?

[FDRrocks]

39. Why not?

He has had 2 years to make us safer. Instead of attacking terrorist networks he attacked Iraq, while the situation in Afghanistan got worse. The White House even censored the report on 9/11, after refusing to cooperate with the investigation comittee.

If we get attacked again by foreigners on our home soil... (twice in 3 years, last time, 1812) then George Bush and his administration should be impeached.

He should've been at least investigated b/c of the Val Plame leak, didn't happen. He should be impeaced for lying to the Congress during the build up to the war in Iraq.

He is a piece of crap..

Oh, and welcome to DU! :) :) :) :) :)

[Catherine Vincent]

No, not the President. The poster is talking about Bush.

n/t

[FDRrocks]

46. Good point.

A president has to be elected. How easy it is to forget.

[rasputin1952]

76. Makes sense to me....

after all, bush is the one that is insistant that we fight around the globe so that we don't have to fight the terrorists in our own streets. If Clinton can be impeached over a lie about a sexual liason; I see no reason why bush shouldn't be impeached if Americans die from an attack on our soil after we were told how safe we are because he's in charge.

O8)

[okieinpain]

16. bush, will be kicked out. but it will be another 2000 election.

so hold on to those undies ma!!

[plm135]

18. I doubt it will be a blowout

but the EC numbers just dont work very well for us.

We are a 50/50 country still, but our 50 is in fewer states then their 50 right now.

Florida will be the key, if we can pull that one off, all bets are off, but odds are, we wont be able to, and I dont see how we win all the states we won last time with Minn, Wisconsin, Iowa all trending Republican.

PA may not swing to us, Florida could stay, no guarantee that Ariz, NM or Nev will go democrat, WV is still up in the air...

Sorry, but I think it will take a major negative event for Bush, maybe even two, before I think we have a decent chance of winning.

[maxsolomon]

28. florida or arizona

if all else holds according to form (and it has recently), & either one goes the way it went in 1996, the white house is ours. its that close. certainly washington is not in play.

but i ain't holding my breath - the dems can scream from the mountaintops all they want - the 'angry left' meme is out there & will define the campaign. its going to be the dumbest, most thunderingly trivial campaign ever, and bush won't have to answer one unscripted question. the wuss.

[PassingFair]

45. Jeez!

What would qualify as a major negative event that HASN'T occurred under this fool's watch?

[TahitiNut]

17. 2004? Them. Now, 2005 might be a different question.

:silly:

[chaska]

19. Eating beans too often ... that's what my gut is telling me.

[Ani Yun Wiya]

20. Well...

On 12/12/00, upon the SC decision, I had three thoughts pop immediately into my head:

1. The "money" would get funny in a hurry. (Where did that surplus go?)
2. We would have war in short order. (Remember Afghanistan?)
3. The small chance of free and fair elections in '04.

And so far, * and crew have gone overboard on points one and two.

As to point three, * will "run on his record" of meeting the goals he set out
in that speech were he talked about the "first war of the 21 century".

The media will spew positive images of * and crew making progress on their stated goals.

The corporate structure and other schemes will hand * tons of cash, and the resulting
smear and dirty tricks assault on whatever candidate emerges from the primary season,
will be geared towards winning by "landslide proportions". * and crew will do anything to
keep the power they now hold.

Which of course brings us to BBV.

Or even a host of other possibilities including no elections at all.

BTW that is some quality tinfoil you have there!

[Robb]

23. Thanks

I take pride in my tinfoil. ;)

I'm also pretty impressed (as always here) with the quality and thoughtfulness of the responses so far.

[Piperay]

21. Them

they will lie, cheat, steal and kill (literally) to keep it.

[Beaker]

22. Ask me again once we have a nominee...

if it's the current "front-runner", my gut says Them.

and in 23 years worth of elections, my gut has never been wrong about the big chair.

[Speed8098]

57. I sadly agree

I don't want a flame war, but Dean has no chance.

I voted us because I think Clark has a good shot at the nomination. Otherwise, I'd vote them.

Clark/Clinton What a dream team.

But.....I believe her when she say's she will finish her term in the Senate.

[Beaker]

61. I sadly DIS-agree...

on the "Clinton" part of the ticket.
Hillary, at this point(and possibly for her entire life), would be poison to any Democratic ticket. Not since Ted Kennedy has there been a potential candidate that drives so much hate in the repuglican party.

[Name removed]

24. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[LTR]

25. The right wing will implode

No way these creeps can keep this shit up forever. People will wake up and wise up to their nonsense.

If a terror attack happens, they could have their asses handed to them. Especially after assuring people of their safety after 'capturing' Saddam.

There is a 50-50 chance of this happening. But this is a highly delicate balancing act for the Bush Misadministration.

[PissedOffPollyana]

30. Y'know, I felt that way about Iran-Contra.

"No way these creeps can keep this shit up forever. People will wake up and wise up to their nonsense."

I felt exactly this way as I sat with all my GOP broker pals and watched the hearings during lunch. The Young Republicans were crapping themselves until it became clear that the public just tuned out. The news told them they couldn't handle another Watergate-like body-slam to our trust of government and they listened and obeyed. It was like "the nation of ADD", just appalling.

... and I think we all know who was elected in 1988.

When the Democratic party counts on the ever-elusive and oft-ill-informed "swing voter" and ignores their most solid base, they do not turn out solid numbers. With a luke-warm turn-out, it's just too close to NOT consider BBV and future "voter roll corrections" a serious threat.

FWIW, I am plannning on voting absentee and being outside US borders for the next coup. Whether it's fought or taken as passively as 2000, it's bad news either way for me. Time to check into that ex-pat status I've had my eye on.

Best to hope for the best but keep low & avoid the radar anyway.

[OneTwentyoNine]

27. My gut says dead people before Nov and rigged voting machines....eom

[YNGW]

29. We're in trouble.

I'm seeing anger. It may be righteousness anger, but it's anger nonetheless. Anger doesn't win elections.

[Kolesar]

33. the Democrats have never been so fired up

That, and we have the truth on our side. There is reason to hope. I didn't vote in this poll though.

[rbnyc]

34. For those who said them...

...Change your gut and change the future!

[revcarol]

35. I see one helluva fight

and to do that needs lota green.

If we don't put our money where our mouths are AND work door-to-door and person-to-person, we are in deep doo-doo. It's really up to us. Are we SERIOUS enough to go all out? We are going to have to TROUNCE GWB to make up for BBV. Are we up to it?

That's the question.

[drdigi420]

68. Well, since BushCo have sent all our jobs

to India, I have nothing left to fight with.

I just hope I can escape before martial law is declared and bush appointed king.

[cally]

37. Us

I just met Wes Clark and I believe he will win. I thought of that scene in the first episode of the West Wing where they ask if the then candidate is the real deal. Wes Clark is the real deal.

He talked about the environment, focusing on new technologies to create jobs, creating a new "Manhattan Project" but much bigger to help wean the country from foreign oil. I think this man is running out of a commitment to our country and I think he will win.

[snyttri]

40. you said squirt gun

[AlFrankenFan]

41. Honestly, I smell...

...deja vu.

[Clark Can WIN]

42. Depends on who we nominate

If it's Dean, we're fucked.

Clark
Kerry
Gep

I think that's about all we have that could win against *, even though I like Edwards very much also.

[Name removed]

43. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Catherine Vincent]

44. My gut also tells me that Wes Clark will be our next President!

n/t

[JohnKleeb]

47. Groan I dont know

I am ever the scared honest. I am wondering what will become of me should they win, will I be at gitmo or will I be Recruit Kleeb, :shrug: oy I groan, you guys may not know how pacifist I have became in these years. Sigh, I am sick of war honest to god. Sick of it all. My peers will start being drafted, oh how I fear a draft. Sigh, I think we will pull this thing out. I really do hope so guys. Anyhow heres to victory :toast:

[Skittles]

48. THEY WON'T WIN NEXT YEAR

PROBLEM IS, THEY DIDN'T WIN IN 2000 EITHER.

[Cat Atomic]

49. I think we'll win! Just like last time!

And I mean that.

[guitar man]

50. A dream

I have been having the same dream(or slight variations) off and on for awhile now.


In my dream,it is after the election. Buttmunch is still in the White House,but they lost their ass in the House and Senate.



Would this scenario be so bad? Maybe not what we hoped for,but better than it is now.


My dreams have never been terribly prophetic,so maybe that is a good thing?

[rman]

52. them. likely with a different face

-

[Hippo_Tron]

53. My gut tells me we are dead even at the moment.

This 63% to 37% is total bullshit. The questions, does Bush make any major fuck ups in the next year. Do we run a good campaign showing the mistakes that Bush has already made. To we unite the democratic party and America around a strong candidate and against the failures of Bush. Do we get our voter turnout. The answer to all of these is that it can happen, the big question is do we make them happen (minus the one about Bush). If we do, then America will wake up and vote Democratic in 2004. Not to mention that if Bush makes some serious fuck ups then congress might be headed our way as well.

[joncofey1]

54. I think they will try to steal another one

[K-W]

55. 48% each as I go to bed

These are scary times indeed.

[regnaD kciN]

56. Them, because...

...the poll asks about 2004. Even if we run Chimpy out of town next November, our victorious candidate wouldn't take office until January, 2005.

[Robb]

58. Oh, you.

You know what I mean. ;)

[NicRic]

59. I hope Iam wrong on this ?

Actually I hope Iam wrong on 2 things ,frist my gut says that because the voters have been so ill informed about the truth of the corruption in this white house, that bush will probably win ,unless ! We are attacked again in a big way something simular to 9/11 .I feel it is very possible something like this happening ,because of the intense hatered of this white house by extremeist in the mis east ,that they will do anything to make bush look bad and insure that he is not re-elected. Both of my possibilities are not happy ones .Sure I would love to see bush lose in 04 ,however I do not want it to happen at the expense of many inocent people !
Take Care NicRic

[SammyWinstonJack]

60. Them

They can not afford not too be. Far too much at stake and way too much dirt on them. Whatever it takes to stay in power, is the game they're playing. :cry:

[rucky]

62. Them....Ask me again in April

That's when the Dems must get our shit together.

[Habibi]

63. "Us"

We will win, whoever "we" is by then. We will unite behind the nominee, whoever s/he is, and rout the Bush mofos.

Goddammit, we have to win.

[DemBones DemBones]

64. In 2004, they're in the White House, even if we win in November.

If we win, they're in power until January 20, 2005.

[AngryAmish]

65. Depends

On who Mini-Ditka endorses.

[beyurslf]

67. I have to say US but I think it will be a long hard battle and close NT

[JE748]

69. We will lose badly...

I fear we have underestimated public desire to feel safe. Dean running on an anti-war platform and winning the nomination is ultimately bad for Democrats. He doesn't stand a chance unless some circumstances change. Lieberman is the best hope. Not even Clark will help this- he has gotten zero traction and was basically fired by Clinton. Hillary, I think, likes this situation. She does not want a Dem in the WH come '08.

[Habibi]

70. If we "lose badly"

it will be due to self-fulfilling defeatism on our side. Enough, already.

[Kolesar]

71. these Hillary in 08 stories make me want to puke

they are so frightfully convoluted

[Jheka_]

73. Actually, they're fairly straightforward

The theory is that Hillary didn't think, for a variety of reasons, that it was prudent to run in '04 but would like to be President after the '08 election. In order for that to happen, Bush has to win in '04. Hillary would like to see that happen without the appearance of wanting to see that happen. Speculation about her backing of Clark, her and Bill's endorsements, etc. flow from this basic theory. I don't know if it's true or not, but there's nothing particularly convoluted about it.

[RBHam]

72. other...martial law

see ya in the re-education camps!

[rasputin1952]

74. We win, and it will NOT be a sqeaker....

The RWnuts are very quiet, they know that there are issues that are being addressed, and the admin has no answers.

I Live in Nebraska, this is no kidding, two years ago, bush was 'god'...today, I know of 3 people that even discuss him with any respect, and they are looked down upon. If this is the trend in NEBRASKA...he doesn't have a chance.

Even the 'non-event' of the Saddam capture barely raised eyebrows. Osama might be different, but the GOP in NE is feeling the blues!

O8)

[Touchdown]

77. Same here in Colorado

In 2002, Bush was untouchable. Now I talk to very few that see him as our "Great leader" anymore, and more as "that asshole?". There are cracks in the earth all over Colorado here...and this is a Repug stronghold!

We will win!