Anyone else heard the rumor - Sen. Lugar potential replacement for Powell

[salin]

as Secretary of State? Read a brief snippet locally on this speculation. Could be just Indiana wishful thinking, as Sen. Lugar is very popular as a 'moderate, intellectual' republican.

There wasn't speculation as to timing. I couldn't imagine, if this were real speculation, that this would happen before the 2004 election - and the GOP would have a chance to install... er... elect Mitch Daniel as Governor (whose chances went down tremendously after Gov. Kernan changed his plans and decided to run, he was the sitting Lt. Governor when the late Governor, Frank O'Bannon, passed away this past year.)

I also can't imagine replacing Sec. Powell with another more 'traditional' republican, one who has publically voiced real questions about admin policy (though in the end he always votes with them) - including loud worries prior to the invasion about lack of an exit plan. Don't think it would make the neocons happy. Or is it simply a rumor floating with the intention (eg coming from Rove) of trying to keep the neocons in line after their last show-down/embarassment for the WHiteHouse when Wolfowitz intentionally sabatoged James Baker's efforts at getting European countries to forgive Iraqi debt?

Anyone else heard the rumor? If true - what are the implications?

[JohnKleeb]

1. Yes I have

[BigBadDaddy-O]

2. That's news to this Hoosier.

Of any Repuke to take his spot I guess Luger would be the best evil.

[salin]

3. Who would be your guess for possible appointees for his senate seat

were the appointment to happen before the gubinatorial election?

[IndianaGreen]

6. The neocons will push for Newt Gingrich as Secretary of State

Newt wants the job real bad, so much so that he has openly criticized Powell. The GOP controls the Senate, and I don't foresee a Newt appointment being held up, particularly since the House Republicans could block anything that comes out of the Senate in retaliation.

The biggest "IF" is that it all depends on Bush's election in 2004, which is not a done deal!

It is just as likely that the next Secretary of State will be a Democrat. My choices are Bill Richardson or Carol Mosley-Braun.

[salin]

7. Why Richardson?

Had a friend in the physics field - as Sec. of Energy he came out to the lab (major one). My friend participated in a "focus group" after the Wen Ho Lee (sp?) fiasco - something about the aftermath of the incident. My friend felt there was a specific emphasis on physcists of asian descent - and that the whole thing was contrived and more about placating folks rather than trying to garner any real input. Left the taste of a very superficial public relations stunt rather than assessing the real impact within the research community.

I certainly don't judge a dignitary on a single incident of bad public policy and pr surrounding the issue, but I would need to know a great deal more about Richardson before being supportive of him in such a highly sensitive and diplomatic role.

Curious who you think might have a shot at being appointed as senator if Lugar were tapped and the dems still control the Governors mansion in Indiana?

[IndianaGreen]

9. Richardson was UN Ambassador

and has experience negotiating with North Korea.

The Wen Ho Lee fiasco is the fault of the FBI, and Ashcroft's Justice Department.

I would like to see someone like Andy Jacobs in the Senate, but he won't take the job. He is too happy and settled in his life to uproot all of that.

It would be nice if Kernan were to appoint Vi Simpson to the Senate. She was my choice for Governor, before the untimely death of O'Bannon and subsequent (and logical) decision by Kernan to run for the top spot.

[salin]

11. Vi would be a great choice.

Would also like to see (but it won't happen) Mark Kruzan (former house majority leader, newly elected Mayor of Bloomington.) Have to wonder about Bart Peterson getting the nod... but would he take it?

[Deesh]

13. Possible appointees for Senator --

-- might include Lee Hamilton, Jill Long, or former Secretary of State Joe Hoggsett (my choice).

Congresswoman Julia Carson would be an exciting choice, but I'm not sure the red voters of Indiana are ready for her. But she is wonderful.

Joe Hoggsett would be sensational.

I think the U.S. Senate is too close and too partisan right now to expect Bush to replace Powell before Mitch Daniels has a chance to win.

The posts are right on this thread -- Daniels will be tough, but Kiernan could well beat him.

[salin]

16. Agreed - very unlikely to happen before the election

the senate is too close for Rove etal. to let one seat go democratic. Unless, of course, the admin is so arrogant to prematurely assume a Daniel win. Kernan is popular - not quite to the level as Bayh and Lugar (no one could beat either)... but he was the favorite of the Indy power-elite a year ago when he bowed out (and they started swaying towards Mitch.)

In addition, while Gov. O'Bannon was losing popularity as perceived as having let several crises grow (esp dealing with the property tax revisions after the state Supreme Court ruled the current system unconstitutional - though the reality is that he and Kernan had been working out possible solutions for several years but had been blocked by the state legislature) the impression of O'Bannon - and Kernan by extension - was rehabilitated by O'Bannon's premature death. Suddenly folks were looking at his entire life of service rather than the single issue. In the process the negative tone was lifted. Now the governor's race is a real toss-up.

I am not as familiar with Hogsett - as I have been in and out of the state - and my years correpsond with a few of his elections but not with his actual service.

I have respect, but some reservations, for Lee Hamilton.

Being a policy wonk type, and having watched the Mayor of Indianapolis for awhile, I think that Bart Peterson would be good. But I have no idea how the city would fair with such upheaval (a unexpected transition to a different Mayor.)

Jill Long would be interesting, as would Vi Simpson.

My favorite would not happen, but would be former state house majority leader Mark Kruzan (and newly elected Mayor of Bloomington.) He is liberal - but conciliatory. He was elected to the state house at a very young age, from a very liberal community, in a very centrist state and era. But he quickly rose to be respected enough by his more centrist colleagues to be a leader in the state house of representatives. As a result he is well respected by democratic office holders across the state. In a well run campaign, in a state that sees the democratically controlled cities in the largest population centers, his status as respected official could be played well were he to be appointed and then have to run for state wide election in short order.

[T Bone]

15. Kernan could resign, have Kathy Davis appoint him to the seat and

then IN would have two Democratic Senators, assuming Bayh is still considered a Democrat. Kathy Davis would become the sitting Dem Governor to run against "George's Man Mitch" and become the first woman governor of IN both appointed and elected. Actually a good scenario in the end.

[salin]

17. Wouldn't that be something!

The buzzzz on the street, however, when she was selected as lieutenant governor - was that it was an indication that Kernan would not run for Governor. While she is very well resepected, but is not known as a strong campaigner. Her selection set the statehouse gossip in the direction that Kernan would not run again. Of course, since then he has declared for the race - so what does conventional wisdom mean anyhow...

[jbfam4]

4. Lugar to State?

http://www.suntimes.com/output/novak/cst-edt-novak21.html

Lugar to State?


Well-placed sources say Republican Sen. Richard Lugar of Indiana, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, is the leading prospect to succeed Colin Powell as secretary of state in the second term of a Bush administration.

Lugar, a 71-year-old, five-term senator, is close to Powell and shares his less hawkish views of the world. Powell is definitely leaving at the end of the first Bush term. His friend and colleague, Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage, will leave with him. The choice of Lugar would be enhanced if his former aide, Mitch Daniels, were elected governor of Indiana next year so that a Republican in Indianapolis would select Lugar's successor for the last two years of his term if he left the Senate.

A footnote: Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz, once thought to be in line for the top job at either State or Defense in the second term, is reported to have lost favor at the White House.

[IndianaGreen]

5. Lugar wants to play to role of von Ribbentropp to our Fuhrer?

Replacing Powell with Lugar will put a subservient lapdog in the State Department. Lugar's appointment will be welcome news for the Pentagon.

It will also be welcome news in Indiana, letting our Democratic Governor (assuming he wins reelection against Mitch Daniels) appoint Lugar's successor.

[pansypoo53219]

8. why?

so they can ignore him too?

[kentuck]

10. Lugar is a good soldier...he will do what he is told

He is a Party hack...not an independent thinker.

[Dagaz]

12. Interesting Post

I don't see Powell being replaced by a traditional Republican either. Bush in a second term would put his stamp on a new Sec of State with a newer mindset. I do believe that Powell will resign because recent history tells us that Sec's of state normally do after 1 term. My guess would be Paul Bremer since he's have the best knowledge of Iraq and the Mid East. Rice is more a Soviet expert which isn't really needed now and I would assume Luger is too. Also, unless a Repub gets elected Gov then Luger would surely be out.

[Deesh]

14. Powell's Out of There

Powell has already said he won't be back for a second Bush term. I hope it will be a moot point.

Richard Armitage, second in line at State now, also says he will not be back.

So there are two appointments right there, and that's only if Bush wins.

Lugar can be a party hack, that's true, but he did stand up to Reagon on the Phillipines and on South African apartheid. Once in a while he shows some grit and clarity.

If Mitch Daniels wins and Bush is re-elected, Lugar will be the logical choice for State. I don't think the Senate will confirm Gingrich because he's pissed too many people off.

If Daniels loses and Bush is re-elected, Lugar's chances go way down because Joe Kiernan will appoint Lee Hamilton, Jill Long, or Joe Hoggset -- or Vi -- someone really good like these people, and not a Republican.

But Daniels will lose 54-46 and Bush will lose 55-45 and the Democrats will prevail. Richardson would qualify for State, but he might be our VP candidate.