The way I see it, we are going to loose 1 Senate seat, not 5

[Hippo_Tron]

Hollings, Graham, and Breaux are all well respected long serving senators who are going to endorse a dem candidate. The key is that the dem candidates vying to replace them need to associate themselves with the senator that they are running to replace and not the dem presidential candidate. They can campaign on being moderate and not just voting for the dem administration. As far as Edwards goes, we elected a young moderate dem to the seat 6 years ago why can't we do it again? Georgia is the seat I intend for us to loose simply because Zell Miller is probably going to endorse a Republican. But loose one in the south pick up two elsewhere that's still 50/50 which is a majority when we win the white house.

[AtTheEndOfTheDay]

1. Is loosing

like losing only double o bad?

[westman]

2. I wish I were as optimistic.

However, the endorsements of Hollings, et. al., won't matter. The voters will likely go GOP.

In Illinois, there's a effort to put Fitzgerald back up as a candidate. He's suddenly looking good given his early opposition to Gov. Ryan, who's just been indicted. If Rove gets him back on the ballot, the GOP could hold.

Unfortunately, the Senate is looking dire.

[Bombtrack]

4. the whitehouse wants Jack Ryan nominated

for good reason. He's Jeri Ryans ex-husband, and like her Boston Public character he left a mega high paying job to teach in the inner city.

He's also moderate and I guess would be considered very good looking

[Padraig18]

5. Compared to Atilla the Hun, yeah, Ryan's a moderate...

Don't wish that troll on the voters of Illinois; even Fitzgerald looks good, next to Ryan.

[KharmaTrain]

16. Too Many Ryans...LOL

Letsee, there's George who will be on trial during the election campaign...then there's Jim who lost to Blago last year and now here's another Ryan. Can't they come up with something original? LOL.

I saw the Ryan commercials and did a double-take at first (they are very funny and well done), but once I read into his background, this is definitely Rove's stalking horse...doing the typcial GOOP thing...parade around as moderate and compassionate but really being a puppet for the right wing.

[tritsofme]

17. Exactly, the Ryan name is stained in IL,

I think that Jack Ryan would actually have a real good chance of winning the seat if his last name wasnt Ryan. There is just too much scandal and corruption attached to it, and he is the only moderate candidate the GOP has to offer.

McKenna, or whatever his name is, is just too conservative to even have a chance in IL, and thats who I hope they nominate.

Ive put my money in Hull, I think this guy has real potential.

[KharmaTrain]

15. Put A Fork In Fitzgerald

While Fitzgerald was on Ryan's case, he ruffled the feathers of the most important GOOPer in Illinois, Dennis Hastert. Word here is that it was he that pushed Fitzgerald out and isn't in too much of a hurry to see him hop back in. The big party money is falling being Jim Oberweis and his dairy millions (btw, I've been boycotting Oberweis for years).

The rest of the GOOP field is a shambles as is the statewide party, so even if Fitzgerald hopped back in, he'd get his head handed to him. BTW, one major reason for him to drop out was his approval/re-election ratings were under 40%.

Problem is the Dems really haven't done much of getting behind a candidate to really put this seat on ice now. The party money is behind a party hack and the other candidates (including Nancy Skinner) are virtually non-existant in the news and on the airwaves. What's wrong with the DNC?

From what I see of McAuliffe & Co., the House and Senate races next year could be brutal...couple that with a possible * election/steal and this country is really screwed...and no one, even Democrats seem to care.

[dansolo]

20. Illinois is going to elect a Democrat

Fitzgerald has been a pain in the ass to the GOP occasionally, and he did push for the selection of Patrick Fitzgerald, and he is also against the O'hare expansion, so I have a little amount of respect for him. But even if they convince him to run, he doesn't have a prayer. I think the Illinois GOP is really wishing that their favored candidate wasn't named Ryan :-)

[murielm99]

26. Yes, Ryan has the wrong name.

He will never be elected here. My son sent me an article from a DuPage County newspaper, covering a talk Ryan gave to students at Wheaton-Warrenville High School. He talked about cutting capital gains taxes for the very poor, because they could not afford them! LOL! And no one caught it!

I like Hull, too. But Dan Hynes has name recognition, and experience. I think he has a good shot. Also, Hull may be spending alot of his own money on commercials, but Hynes is actually going out and visiting Democrats, at picnics, committee meetings, etc.

Either one of them would be fine with me. But I really do not think we will see any republican elected. People here in Illinois are just tired of the trials and scandals.

[Bombtrack]

3. With a Clark-Graham ticket, we incure the least damage

Obama could possibly pull out a squeaker against Jack Ryan, or a solid win against Oberweis. (IL)

Knowles could beat Murkowski (AK)

If they win at least one it will be Georgia. If Caine is the nominee, which the GOP brass probably want, he will crush the democrat. And he will beat Harold Ford out to be the first black southern democratic senator since reconstruction.

We should nominate Alex Penelas, a moderate bridge-builder with what looks to be a bright future and could carry the Cuban vote(and bleed more of the Cuban vote into the presidential election), particularly since Mel Martinez is the whitehouses prefurred candidate, and therefor the likely one

[Hippo_Tron]

6. Katherine Harris is looking pretty good

As the GOP candidate for the Florida senate seat of course.

[Bombtrack]

7. Rove is reportadly against Harris running

I read he discouraged her because of the backlash it might cause

I don't believe she's announced a campaign

Right now the major candidates are:

Dems:
Peneles
Betty Castor
Peter Deutche

Repubs:
former NH senator Bob Smith
Johnny Byrd
Bill McCollum jr.
Mel Martinez
Larry Clayman
(probably forgetting one or 2, but Harris hasn't announced to my knowledge)

[tritsofme]

18. Martinez is Rove's boy, right?

nt

[Orangepeel]

22. Yep. n/t

[WildClarySage]

8. Now that subject is a phrase I never thought I'd hear,

esp at DU. :)

[kerry-is-my-prez]

9. Alex Penellas who sold out the Dem Party in Miami Fla in 2000?

Because he was in a snit about Elian Gonzalez. He's the main reason that the Florida recount went down the tubes. We were all gagging when we saw him at the Florida convention. Not one person I talked to said they'd back him or vote for him. He screwed up big time...

Most people I talked to there were going for Castor or Deutsch.

[Bombtrack]

11. well there are plenty of miami county dems at least that will vote for him

in the primary.

And I was one of the democrats who agreed with him that the US government sending a toddler back to an authoritarian dictatorship didn't sit well.

He's done alot for Miami, like leading the state in job growth among all counties, while the entire state had big job growth. As well as his after school and perscription drug initiatives

[Orangepeel]

23. It's not Elian that makes Penelas a sorry excuse for a Dem

it's his backing of republicans over Democrats. In the 2002 race, he even hosted a fundraiser for Mario Diaz Balart in his run against Annie Betancourt (who is also Cuban, so that's not even an excuse).

[Deesh]

10. Senate Races 04

I think the above call on Murkowski is right -- Lisa loses to Knowles.

I'm hoping Gary Hart will jump into the Colorado race, now that Udall has declined to run. Nighthorse Campbell can be defeated and Hart has the skills to do it. I know it's Colorado, but I think Hart would win. Allard's percentage in the last election was nothing great.

Erkine Bowles holds Edwards' seat. Evan Bayh re-elected in red-state Indiana. Fingerhut gives Voinovich the fight of his life -- and maybe upsets him if the national party people invest in Ohio this time. Gore simply gave Ohio to Bush in 2000.

The Chicago Tribune keeps saying that the GOP in Illinois is a hopeless mess, and that the Senate race will go Democratic, whether Fitzgerald or Ryan is the nominee. I hope so.

A friend in Philadelphia believes Arlen Specter will be bloodied a bit in the GOP primary and that he'll lose the general election in a state that's trending strongly Democratic. Go, Hoeffler!

We might need the intervention of the Olympian gods and goddesses for South Carolina and Lousiana.

[jmowreader]

12. A "Blue Dog Democrat" could win SC or LA

"Blue Dog Democrat" is the kinder, gentler term for DINO.

How to take a Southern state:

a. Pick a candidate who is close to being a DINO. Needs to be slightly right-leaning; a liberal can't win in either state but a moderate to slightly-right candidate can. Think "non-horny Bill Clinton" and you're on the money.

b. Said DINO needs to be a small-business owner.

c. Said DINO needs to be a Christian. These are states filled with Bible-believing men and women. He shouldn't be a fundie, but active church participation in a Protestant church is required. In NC, there is a Jewish state senator named David Weinstein and he's good; if he ran for national office he'd get stomped. Because he isn't a Christian--no other reason.

d. Said DINO should be a coalition builder. He needs to be able to pull together the Democrats, DINOs, RINOs and Repugs into working groups.

If we can get someone like this, we'll keep SC and LA; if we can find someone like this in GA we'll keep Zell's seat. As long as we can keep them voting for our message most of the time, we'll be well off; if they turn into Zell clones, at least they'll help us maintain a majority if we can get one.

[SayitAintSo]

21. In SC for Hollings seat - Inez Tennebaum is strong

Well respected school super. One of the few dems to prevail in our painful spanking we got in 2002. She's Jewish, atty. former head of strong non profit she started, big coaltion builder - well respected. I think we have a winner. Keeping my fingers crossed.

[Hippo_Tron]

25. DINO isn't the word I would use to describe it, more like conservative

John Breaux will vote with Republicans without thinking twice sometimes but you can't count on him returning home to help the dems win big elections. As far as Zell goes, we have a problem because he will probably endorse a Republican or another Zell Miller. Sure I'd rather another Zell Miller over a Republican because if we get a majority we can control the committees and still get Snowe/Chaffee/McCain to vote with us when needed. Sure, a decent dem can win Georgia but it will be much harder than the other states.

[okieinpain]

13. well we might loose zell seat, but I think there is a good chance

of picking up nickles seat in oklahoma. brad carson has a good shot at winning over mayor of oklahoma city. you guy's didn't think we could do it with gov, well we might just shock the world again.

[TrogL]

14. I don't believe it (sarcastic)

Someone is actually thinking about the Senate for a change instead of concentrating on the White House.

[Brian_Expat]

19. Why does it matter?

The Democrats didn't even insist on a formal vote over the PATRIOT II bill passed in the Senate. With "leaders" like that, why does a majority matter?

[Hippo_Tron]

24. There was no point unless somebody intended to fillibuster it...

Plus it might take a majority to outst Daschle, since him not winng a single election since he was elected minority leader hasn't seemed to get rid of him.

[K-W]

27. Minority parties dont gain anything by pretending they are the majority

Right now the republicans control all branches of government. The democrats are in no position to stop things the republicans really want. And by supporting them, they can get republicans to soften or stop smaller things or give the democrats various things they want.

It is a shitty situation, but you cant blame the democrats for being in the minority. It is the american people who, in the end, chose to put a majority of republicans in both houses.

If the democrats had a majority, they would certainly act very differently.

Though with things like the patriot act you run into trouble, betting against nationalism is risky and not many democrats feel they can afford to risk being the guy who voted against measures to protect america.

[Adjoran]

28. Nope, it looks pretty glum

Florida and LA will be close if we have strong candidates, but we will be the underdog in both races, have no doubt.

Illinois is an almost certain pickup, but we are highly unlikely to take the seats in Colorado, Alaska, and Ohio mentioned above. The incumbents aren't much, but their incumbency will probably be enough.

NC, SC, and GA seats are gone, kiss them goodbye.

Fortunately we are probably holding easily three seats that were considered vulnerable a year ago: Reid (NV), Baucus {MT}, and Daschle (SD).

Best case scenario is that we lose a net three seats in the Senate. The House doesn't look very good, either - which is why it is so important to pick a Presidential candidate who can win.