Ex-Cattleman's Warning Was No Bum Steer

[kayell]

I caught this article too late to put it in LBN. It's a followup with Howard Lyman, the ex-rancher who was sued along with Oprah Winfrey for "disparaging" beef under one of TX more bizarre laws. The quotes below are at the end of the article.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A48469-2004Jan1.html

"So when the headlines proclaimed what the industry said was not possible, that mad cow disease had once again struck, Lyman was circumspect.

In his mind, it was hardly cause for celebration.

"That's not my style," says Lyman, who has given up not only ranching but also lobbying. He now lives in Alexandria.

If you ask him, he will suggest that we are looking at the possibility of a terrible epidemic. "Do the math," he says. "Any scientist will tell you that one mad cow tells you there are thousands more."

He says this quietly. The facts, he believes, will ultimately speak for themselves. "
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The USDA only tests around 20,000 cattle per year in the US. According to this source http://www.spectrumcommodities.com/education/commodity/statistics/cattle.html the US slaughters 37,447,000 head of cattle per year.

[panzerfaust]

1. Third WA farm in quarantine

... as cow from the same Canadian herd as the first Yakima Cow came from has been located: only dozens more remain to slowly track down.


Spam:
the other
red
meat

[kayell]

2. I think the problem is probably much bigger than 1 herd

We have been testing a miniscule percentage of the total US herd for many years - so miniscule in fact that it appears someone wanted to avoid finding mad cow. What are the chances that this herd is the only infected herd, given the percentage of cattle tested? Mad cow takes years to develop and appear in humans. What are the chances that there are many people already infected by those non-inspected, but infectious cattle? This is the huge bovine in the living room that almost no articles mention.

Any statisticians out there want to do the chances of the inspection process having found the first US mad cow?