How many senate seats will we lose?

[ringmastery]

Holding Florida, Louisana, North Carolina, Georgia, and South Carolina will be very questionable.

Our only chances at a pickup seem to be Alaska and Illionois. If we only lose 1 or 2 seats, we should consider ourselves lucky.

[Bronco69]

1. I don't think we're going to lose any.

In fact we may even gain a few. Dem senators will ride the new president's coattails. :-)

[are_we_united_yet]

2. I think we win a few

[ringmastery]

3. Where? Which states?

I don't think those are realistic expectations considering we have to worry about holding FIVE southern democratic seats where our incumbents are retiring.

[patricia92243]

4. What kind of assinine question is that? WE WILL WIN SEATS

[Rowdyboy]

5. We'll lose two or more seats....

Minimum. I'm not going to be a cheerleader. We're in for a nightmare year in the senate.

[adamrsilva]

6. Lose 2, gain 2

we stay where we are.

[nostamj]

7. oh admins! ????

can we have a new forum for doomsayers?

i'd rather not even see the subject lines of defeatists. i'm sick to death of defeatist spew.

feh! begone, you have no power here!

[ringmastery]

8. blind optimism is not productive

You think we can gain senate seats. Show me how.

[nostamj]

12. assumption of defeat is productive?

yawn.

p.s. i am not blind or overly optimistic, but I would not post blind defeatism. who needs that?

[Catch22Dem]

15. You're not being fair

If you have a realistic scenario where we pick up seats, show him. I think that's all he's asking for. Instead you're just rolling eyes, calling names, and pointing fingers.

[nostamj]

19. i am not 'rolling eyes, calling names or pointing fingers'

i simply reject blind defeatism.

it is simply not KNOWABLE that defeat is a given and it's a damn weak foundation to work from.

i don't have a state-by-state electoral strategy/fantasy to offer.

fight bush by FIGHTING the media first.

expose the lies of the media and reveal the lies of the administration.

expose vote fraud.
expose 9/11 fraud.

but don't roll over on your back and say: kick me again. not yet.

[alcuno]

9. Illinois is a lock and Alaska seems more than possible.

I don't know who's running in Alaska and it doesn't matter in Illinois. Florida seems a likely hold. I have family down there and just got back. Jeb's destruction of the state is wearing thin with Floridians.

Don't know who is running in Louisiana, NC, SC, or Georgia. Replacing Zell with a Republican seems like an even trade to me.

[TSIAS]

13. Southern seats

Chris John can probably hold Louisiana. He appears to be Breaux's handpicked choice. His politics seem similar to that of Breaux.
Vitter or possibly Jindal will make it a close race, though.

Georgia looks like a tough race. Johnny Isaakson will have a hefty warchest. A lot of prominent Dems have decided not to run in GA.

Erskine Bowles is a solid candidate in NC to take on Burr. I think Bowles could possibly hold Edwards' seat.

Inex Tenenbaum is a good candidate in SC, but I doubt she can win the state.

[jmowreader]

33. I'll agree on Bowles

IMO the only reason we lost to Liddy Dole was that it was Liddy Dole, the golden child of Salisbury. Erskine against, say, Burr is a Democratic lock.

[Beaker]

28. Who's the "lock" in Illinois?

It's a republican that's stepping down, and the state can get very competetive at times. None of the Democratic candidates has the kind of "sure thing" name recognition to call it a "lock" at this stage of the game.

[alcuno]

34. Fitzgerald has irritated Dems and Repubs alike; it's not a Repub seat.

Our only state Republican, the Treasurer, has declared the Republican party in Illinois to be in deep water and far from shore. The lock is anyone with a (D) next to their name.

[TSIAS]

10. I can't make a formal projection

Honestly, I haven't studied the races enough to make any worthwhile predictions. But I do think we have opportunities.

We have a chance in Oklahoma. Brad Carson should be competitive with Kirk Humphreys. OK will likely go Bush, but Carson still has a shot.

With the Gov. Ryan scandal in Illinois, we should be able to pick up Fitzgerald's seat.

Florida is still winnable IMO. Betty Castor could probably defeat Bill McCollum or Johnnie Byrd. I'd be less optimistic if Martinez is the opponent.

Pennsylvania should be an intriguing race. I think Specter will defeat Toomey in the primary, but hopefully he could be weakened enough for Joe Hoeffel to win in November. It's probably a long shot, but one worth watching.

[kentuck]

11. We need to focus more on the Senate and the House instead...

of obsessing about Junior.

[KharmaTrain]

16. The DNC Doesn't Care

No defeatism here, just realism...

The Democratic party is doing a crappy job of recruiting and funding Congressional candidates and Senate hopefulls. Everyone is so fixated on the Presidential beauty pageant, meanwhile the chances to not just hold on to existing seats slips away but there could be additional GOOP pick-ups.

This is such a shame since there are so many corrupt and vulnerable GOOP Congress-hacks that a little money and a little truth about what they're doing could make a big difference next November.

To those expecting some miracle, remember the machine we're going up again...these bastards will do whatever it takes to win. Too bad we don't have a national party with a similar attitude. McAuliffe's gotta go...NOW!

[kentuck]

26. And the better we do in the Congressional races.....

chances are, the better we would do in the presidential race. This seems like the most logical way to GOTV (get out the vote).

[KharmaTrain]

36. Local Races Bring Out Local Voters

The more contested races against the GOOP the more podiums to spotlight the corruption of this regime and how it is effecting people on a local level.

By focusing everything on the national, it's destroying local candidates as issues such as education, health care, environment and other social/local issues are drummed out by the illegal wars and obscene defecits.

I'm in Illinois where not only can a Senate seat pick-up look possible, but also several congressional ones...ONLY, if there was assistance and funding to local parties from the state and national ones.

The GOOP's key to power for the past decade have been their control of the House. The enable the Clinton inquision, this illegal invasion and the devestating tax cuts.

I'll keep saying, ignoring the House races is dooming the Democratic Party. Without it, a Democrat President faces a hostile (DeLay ain't goin' away) opposition to block key legislation, and if * steals the election, Katie bar the door.

It's frustrating since this regime has done so many terrible things to so many people, yet I'm still not seeing a connection between the national party and the large discontent out there.

[kentuck]

40. I think you are correct.....

And the sad part is that we have traditionally been a Party of the people and the Congress - not a Party that focused so much on the Presidency - because the real power is in the hands of the people and the Congress, just as this present Repub Congress has so vividly shown.

[Powerlock]

27. Agreed

Some major effort should be taken with the congress. If we get the white house, but loose seats in congress (right now I see no work above what was done in 02, so I expect similar results) it will be bitter sweet victory.

[Catch22Dem]

14. Forgot one...

"Our only chances at a pickup seem to be Alaska and Illionois. If we only lose 1 or 2 seats, we should consider ourselves lucky."

Add Oklahoma to that list. With Nickles retiring and a very popular Brad Carson running for his seat, Okla. has to be in play.

[izzie]

17. I do hope we do not lose any and it will be a sick day for this country

if we can not hold up judges. Bad things happen in a one party govt.Then every one, even Republicans are lost. The rulers that control the police and army win. For a while anyhow and of course one must pass laws to keep that power.

[GOPBasher]

18. I think we may come out even.

Let's say we lose three of those southern seats, but one of them is Zell Miller's. Then in reality we only lost 2 seats, because Zell is a Republican. If we then gain Illinois and Alaska, we come out even. I'm much more concerned about the white house.

[kentuck]

20. It depends....

If the Democrats had 10% more turnout than Repubs, Democrats could actually win a couple of seats. However, if we operate on the historical status quo, we will probably lose two or three seats, mostly in the South.

[adamrsilva]

21. Daily Kos a bit more positive

1. Illinois
A near sure-thing. The Democrats have a large field vying for the nomination. Any of them will be odds-on favorites to take the seat from the GOP.

The seat was left open after GOP senator Fitzgerald saw his political demise and decided to spare himself the embarrassment of a near-certain loss. The GOP tried to draft popular former guv Jim Edgar but he declined. So the best they have been able to do is investment banker Jack Ryan, in the heels of disgraced governor George Ryan and disgraced Senate candidate Jim Ryan.


2. Alaska
Tony Knowles served as governor in heavily GOP Alaska, no small feat for the Democrat. His Republican opponent, Lisa Murkowski, holds office thanks to her father's grace. When appointed governor, Frank M. appointed his daughter to fill his vacant seat.

The nepotism has rubbed people the wrong way, and she is pro-choice in an anti-abortion party. Furthermore, Frank M. has had to raise taxes, enraging the base and potentially rubbing off on his daughter.

Knowles holds the lead in early polling.

3. Oklahoma
Oklahoma is an unlikely place to be seeking a pickup, and it leans (R). But, it's an open seat and the Dems have a powerful candidate in Rep. Brad Carson. Fresh off its 2002 victory in the state's governor's race, state Dems are optimistic about their chances.

The GOP is also running a strong candidate, Oklahoma City Mayor Kirk Humphreys, making this race one of the marquee contests of the Senate season.

1. Georgia
If the election were today, this would be the one sure call. Some might say that Zell Miller has poisoned the Democratic well in Georgia with his Republicrat ways. Right now, only Mary Squires (warning, internet poll) is running for the Democratic nomination.

The real battle is for the GOP nomination, between two representatives, Johnny Isakson and Mac Collins. Isakson is ahead in the latest Zogby poll by a margin of 37 to 11 percent over Collins. The legit difference between the two is that Isakson is as an opponent to NAFTA/GATT while Collins is a free trader; nevertheless much of their debate will be about trying to outflank eachother on the right. As Bill Shipp said about that:
Hey, guys, can't we forgo, for just one election cycle, a long joust over dumb labels? Can't we simply stipulate that both of you are certified conservatives (or even right-wing nuts, if that will make you feel better) and let it go at that?
2. North Carolina
John Edwards quit the seat to run for president. And while he was never a sure-thing for a seat that has switched hands in six consecutive election, he would've been the favorite. As it is, this will be a tough seat to keep.

The GOP will probably offer up five-term representative Richard Burr, who had already raised $4 million at the end of the Q3 fundraising period. We'll have a reprise candidacy by Erskine Bowles, who lost to Liddy Dole in 2002. He had $0 at the end of Q3.

The last poll of the race, a Raleigh News-Observer effort in mid-November, gave Bowles a narrow 43-40-17 lead. Given Bowles' advantages in name ID, the numbers aren't reassuring.

3. South Carolina
At first blush, SC seems like a lost cause -- a solid Red state that is trending even more Republican, if that's possible.

But Democrat Inez Tenenbaum has catapulted to the lead in all early polling, handily defeating all of her potential Republican opponents (Charlie Condon, Rep. Jim DeMint, or Thomas Ravenel).

4. Florida
Another casualty of the Dem presidential primary, Graham's retirement makes this a toss-up race.

Support on the Dem side appears to be coalescing around Betty Castor, though there will still likely be a competitive Democratic primary with Miami-Dade Mayor Alex Panelas and Rep. Peter Deutsch. On the GOP side, Rove is trying to clear the decks for HUD Secretary Mel Martinez, but Kathleen Harris is making noise about running as well. Rove is terrified of a Harris candidacy, fearing it could galvanize Democratic turnout.

In a early December poll by the Miami Herald, Harris led the GOP field 29 percent to Bill McCollum's 15 percent. Mel Martinez trailed at 11 percent.

In a November Mason-Dixon poll, Castor beat Harris 42-37-21; beat McCollum 36-35-29; and beat Martinez 35-32-33. In other words, a toss-up all the way around.

5. Louisiana
Breaux's retirement throw this from a safe seat to a tossup. The Democrats will run Chris Johns (Breaux's heir apparent), and perhaps losing guv-candidate Richard Ieyoub. The GOP will run David Vitter, and perhaps Bobby Jindal can attempt a political comeback after losing the governor's race to Democrat Kathleen Blanco.

While generally a conservative state, Louisiana Democrats have run the table on their Republican opponents the last two election cycles. While it may be too much to hope for a presidential pickup, state Dems have shown their ability to consistently beat the best the GOP can throw at them.

[Yupster]

23. Good analysis Adam

Very reasonable.

Of the three senate cycles, this is certainly the toughest for the Democrats.

I believe it will depend greatly on the presidential run.

In some of the states like Alaska, S Carolina, and Oklahoma, there is the potential for a Bush win by so much that even strong Democratic candidates get lost in the tide. If Bush wins Oklahoma by 20 %, no Democratic candidate can win there, but if Bush wins by 10 %, it can be a good race.

Wild guess right now, Dems - 2, not so bad.

Upset - Spector loses in Pennsylvania.

But then again, what do I know.

[Powerlock]

31. I think you are wrong with Alaska

The appointment might have upset people, but I strongly doubt many repubs will decide to go with a democrat because of it. You are forgetting it is the lockstep party. And one of the things they LOVE is getting in to office through non-legit means.

Also I feel your analysis on abortion is wrong. Maybe she is a pro-choice republican. Ok, so now anti-choice repubs are going to vote for a pro-choice democrat for some reason? It would seem to me that anti-choice people would rather vote for a pro-choice republican than a pro-choice democrat.

This is especially true considering more democrats in office may shift the majority to the democrats, giving a pro-choice party much greater ability to stop anti-choice legislation and insure abortion rights.

[Woodstock]

22. We didn't lose 2002 by that much

Here's an angle on Latino voters:

http://www.emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/archives/000200.html

Hispanic Population Continues to Grow and So Do Democratic Chances

...According to the survey, registered Latino voters are 49 percent Democratic, just 20 percent Republican and 19 percent independent. And if independents who "lean" to one party or another are classified with that party, the figures become 56 percent Democratic, 25 percent Republican and 7 percent independent. Thus, either way, the Democrats have a huge lead on party identification (and the only subgroup of Hispanics where that is not true are Cuban-Americans, who are declining as a proportion of the Hispanic population). Moreover, according to these data, Hispanics are less likely, not more likely, to be independents than either whites or blacks.

And who do they think has more concern for Latinos in the US? Among the 55 percent of Latinos who see a difference between the parties on this, there is a more than 4:1 (45 to 10 percent) break in favor of the Democrats as the more concerned party....

Political scientist James Gimpel confirms that Hispanic voting patterns didn’t shift in the 2002 election. He finds that Hispanics in ten states polled by Fox News (Texas, Florida, New Jersey, New Hampshire, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Minnesota, Missouri, and South Dakota) supported Democrats over Republicans for the Senate by more than two-to-one (67 percent to 33 percent). Democrats did less well in governors’ elections in these ten states, where Hispanics supported them by 54 percent to 46 percent, but that result probably had a great deal to do with the inclusion of Florida and the noncompetitive Colorado election in the sample. Gimpel concludes that there is little evidence that Latinos, in general, are moving away from the Democratic party, despite all the talk about Hispanics as swing voters. Indeed, Gimpel argues that Republicans' best bet is to hope that Hispanics stay home and don't show up election day. With these latest Census data, that seems to be more true than ever.

[adamrsilva]

24. I say

we lose NC and one of either Georgia, LA, and SC, but we gain IL and Alask, staying where we are at.

[Powerlock]

25. I suspect enough to loose a filibuster

and the people who say otherwise are the same people who said we would make a major come back in 02, the elections last year, and 2000.

I've listened to them for the past 3 sets of major elections saying how great we would do, and they have been wrong everytime.

I think we have a decent shot at the white house, but I believe we will loose more seats in the congress.

[Yupster]

30. Nine seats?

I just can't see that. We'd have to win none and lose nine?

Georgia
N Car
S Car
Louis
Florida
?
?
?
?
S Dakota (Dascle)
California (Boxer)
Wisconsin (Feingold)
?
?
?
?
Washington (Murray)

This would take such a landslide that I wouldn't even be able to eat crow because I'd be too shocked to type.

[Powerlock]

32. You are making the mistake

of assuming that all the "democrats" will support a filibuster. There are a few that likely will not.

We don't need to lose 9 seats to lose our ability to filibuster. Factor in Miller, Lieberman, and others. Then you will see the seats we can afford to lose are much less.

[ButterflyBlood]

37. Miller's retiring and Lieberman has supported all filibusters

n/t

[Powerlock]

38. Nice

I didn't realize miller was going. Lieberan is still up in the air though. He's supported the administation enough to be questionable, and it's not exactly like we've had a ton of filibusters. I suspect on certain legislation he could be convinced to turn. Judges are not the only thing that may require a filibuster.

I suppose we'll have to wait and see how things end up to evaluate things.

[Hippo_Tron]

41. Look at who's headed out, though...

Two of the most conservative dems Breaux and Miller. Miller absolutely would vote against dem fillibusters and Breaux might do so if in his opinion they were counterproductive. Sure there's still Lieberman so I guess that we need to get 42 seats in the senate to be safe. We will have more than 42 seats.

[the_real_38]

29. Don't give up on SC yet...

... we've got a pretty good democratic candidate - Inez Tenenbaum, superintendent of education. She's popular statewide, and I don't think the GOP has a really strong candidate this time.

[saltpoint]

35. Upset in Ohio.

No one expects George Voinovich to lose, but I think a strong showing by the national ticket lifts Fingerhut's boat in Ohio. Voinovich isn't the worst possible Republican, but there is a huge percentage of disenfranchised (but registered-to-vote) people in Ohio right now.

Ohio has a history of upsetting people in state-wide races. The Gilligan "win" that turned into a Rhodes win overnight, and Howard Metzenbaum's upset of John Glenn in the Senate primary race, for examples. Ohio pushed Carter over the top vs. Ford in '76, too.

If the DNC forcefully contests Ohio, Fingerhut becomes a U.S. Senator and Bush loses some serious electoral votes.

Just a prediction, but wouldn't it be great?

[Hippo_Tron]

39. Georgia and one of the carolinas are probably gone.

Florida and LA will be competative. Illinois, Alaska, Oaklahoma, and from what a GOP friend of mine tells me Arizona, could be dem gains.

[TrogL]

42. Good. Somebody's finally thinking about the Senate

about time.

[farmboxer]

43. Republican Manufactured And Programmed Voting Machines

What can be done? The machines will pick as many wins as they want.