Democratic Stronghold States (ranked)

[elperromagico]

I'd like some opinions on this list.

This list is based on a point system, with points being given based on the following four factors:
1. How often the state voted Democratic in the last 16 presidential elections (10-50 points),
2. The average vote received by the Democratic candidate in the last 11 elections (1-51 points),
3. The statewide Democratic margin of victory in the 2000 election (1-51 points),
4. Whether or not the state voted for the Democratic candidate in 2000 (10 points), 1996 (5 points), or 1992 (2 points).

For instance, the District of Columbia
1. Voted Democratic in every presidential election (50 points),
2. Has given the largest average margin of victory to Democratic presidential candidates (51 points),
3. Gave the largest margin of victory to Al Gore in 2000 (51 points), and
4. Voted Democratic in 2000, 1996, and 1992 (17 points). Therefore, DC’s total score is 169, or 100%.

1. District of Columbia (100%)
2. Hawaii (95.86%)
3. Rhode Island (92.9%)
4. Massachusetts (91.72%)
5. New York (89.94%)
6. Maryland (86.98%)
7. Minnesota (81.66%)
8. Connecticut (80.47%)
9. Delaware (77.51%)
10. Illinois (76.92%)
11. Michigan (73.96%)
11. Pennsylvania (73.96%)
13. New Jersey (73.37%)
14. Washington (72.78%)
15. California (72.19%)
16. Wisconsin (69.82%)
17. Oregon (69.23%)
18. West Virginia (66.86%)
19. Maine (66.27%)
20. Vermont (64.5%)
21. Arkansas (62.72%)
22. New Mexico (61.54%)
23. Iowa (58.57%)
24. Missouri (56.21%)
25. Tennessee (50.3%)
26. Louisiana (49.11%)
27. Ohio (48.52%)
28. Georgia (45.56%)
29. Kentucky (44.97%)
30. New Hampshire (43.79%)
31. Florida (42.01%)
32. Nevada (41.42%)
33. North Carolina (40.24%)
34. Texas (36.69%)
35. Arizona (33.14%)
36. South Carolina (32.54%)
37. Virginia (31.95%)
38. Colorado (29.59%)
39. Montana (28.99%)
40. Alabama (26.63%)
41. Mississippi (22.49%)
42. Indiana (21.3%)
43. Oklahoma (19.53%)
43. South Dakota (19.53%)
45. Kansas (16.57%)
46. North Dakota (15.98%)
47. Idaho (14.79%)
48. Alaska (14.2%)
49. Utah (13.02%)
50. Nebraska (10.65%)
51. Wyoming (10.06%)

[XNASA]

1. WA, CA & OR are 14, 15 & 17 respectively?

Surprising. I would have thought that all three would be in the Top 10.

And Arkansas is more Dem than Colorado? Who knew?

[elperromagico]

3. Arkansas voted Democratic in 62%

of Presidential elections since 1940, and the average Dem vote for the last 11 elections has been approximately 50.2%. Additionally, it voted for Clinton in both '92 and '96.

Some of the results are a little surprising, but in general, the list is pretty reliable. Still, I think I need to add more factors.

[mobuto]

6. Arkansas is still pretty Democratic

and is a lot more winnable for national candidates than Colorado is.

Remember also that California is the state that gave us Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan.

[NewJerseyDem]

26. Oregon was extremely close in 2000

It was very close to voting for Bush and I believe that Pat Buchanan's votes were larger than Gore's margin of victory. However, I believe Nader did very well there thought.

California has been moving to the left so I think the state was closer back in the early '90s. This is the state of Ronald Reagan.

[cavebat2000]

2. I like it

It makes you wonder how republicans are the majority in congress and run the executive branch.

[elperromagico]

4. Voters are sometimes odd when it comes to picking officials.

South Dakota, a solid Republican state in Presidential elections, has two Democratic senators. Conversely, states like Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Hawaii have Republican governors.

Voters seem to decide more based on personality in statewide elections, and tend to vote yellow dog in presidential elections.

[KamaAina]

18. In fact the top seven states on that list have Repuke govs

unless Rowland resigned last night :evilgrin:

Remember, the governor appoints all the department heads, so in these seven "Dem strongholds", every single state agency is run by a Repuke sock puppet. In fact, in Hawai'i, Repuke Lingle is running out of stalwart Repuke supporters to reward with patronage jobs!

Even DC isn't safe, because of the oversight from the (rabid Repuke) Congress. Whatever is to become of me?

[Bombtrack]

5. not the best system you could use

You really need to look at states on an individual basis and take into account who the candidates will be, new issues that affects states to varrying degrees, ideological forces within states, and most importantly population and demograpic changes and trends.

There are 15 real swingstates, at least according to the Wallstreet Journals latest look at the battleground. I didn't get to read the article, I just read the intro

i would guess the states to be

red states:
AZ, NV, CO, MO, OH, WV, FL, and NH

blue states:
OR, NM, WI, MI, IO, PA, and ME

I beleive that AR, and perhaps LA become true swingstates if Clark is nominated as well

[mobuto]

8. Georgia

Georgia has a ton of Democrats. Until we were routed in 2002 by our own administrative incompetence, we controlled the Governorship and both Senate seats (although calling Zell Miller a Democrat takes a little bit of willpower).

A smart Democrat who campaigns here should win. Bill Clinton did it. So can our candidate in '04.

I agree with you that both Arkansas and Louisiana are vulnerable (Arkansas especially) and I'd have to add Tennessee.

[elperromagico]

9. Not the best system,

yet all of the Gore states are in the top 25.

I'm talking about voting trends here. How a state has voted over the last 64 years, the average vote it has given to a Dem candidate in the last 44 years, and for which party the state has voted in the last 3 elections might be as accurate a judge of how a state will vote in the future as the factors you've mentioned.

This list is still in its nebulous stages. I do want to add more factors in order to get a more complete idea of how a state will vote, but I think we can both agree that Rhode Island is more likely to vote Democratic than Republican (barring a landslide).

[Bombtrack]

15. take a look here

http://www.massinc.org/Commonwealth/new_map_exclusive/beyond_red_blue.html

http://www.massinc.org/Commonwealth/new_map_exclusive/ten_regions_index.html

[elperromagico]

17. Thank you.

I'll be going over this information and trying to cook up a new list.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

19. A much better breakdown, thanks.

It's also comforting to know (which I did anyway) that I live in one of the most lefty parts of the country - the upper coasts. Washington, that is, with a Dem gov, two Dem senators, and my own congressman, who are pretty solidly liberal/left.

[mobuto]

7. 100% Democratic

Its nice to be from a town that would still give the nation three Democratic electors if we nominated an inanimate carbon rod.

[Hoosier Democrat]

10. What you have is good, BUT

I think you went too far back in looking at Presidential Elections. Those early elections bear no real semblance to how those states are aligned today. For example, California has evolved from a Republican bastion to a Democratic (nationally) stronghold over the last 20 years. Conversely, no Democrat has a prayer of winning the South (Clark may pick up his home state, but not much else down there).

I really did like your research, though. Great work.

I also agree with Bombtrack, but with some tweaking. I agree with his toss-up list, but I think that Nevada could very well go Dem this time around (based on the population explosion in Vegas and the Yucca Mountain debacle) and AZ may also go Dem if the backlash over the new Medicare Bill heats up.

I love forecasting!

[elperromagico]

13. California has been rather unpredictable,

but still, it has gone Democratic in 7 of the last 16 Presidential elections. Using that factor alone, it would go into the Republican column. But it has given big majorities to the Dem candidates in the last three elections, and has favored Dem candidates on average in the last 11 elections, which slides it over to the Dem column.

I admit I'm being rather arbitrary in my choice of factors, which is why I want to add more. I'm a fan of accuracy.

[elperromagico]

14. I would also add that California

went Democratic in '40, '44, and '48 (even with their very popular governor, Earl Warren, on the Rep ticket in '48).

[OpelGT]

20. Unpredictable

Over 60% of California voters in the election to recall Davis voted for one of the two 'pubs on the ballot. I'm not so sure CA is not going to be in play for 04. I live in a fairly rural area of CA, about 2.5 hours from SF, and the RW crap you see and hear is everywhere in my little town. The cities are still safe for Dems come election day since the big cities still hold most of the people and tend to usually go Dem, but the growing population in the burbs and rural areas is catching up, and a lot of it don't seem to be all that friendly to the Dems.

Over 60% voted "R".

Certainly some, and maybe a lot of that was due to people just wanting Davis gone, but still, over 60% is huge, and still has me nervous.

[elperromagico]

23. I get so tired of this "the majority of CA voters voted for a Republican"

nonsense. You assume that people voted for Schwarzenegger (the movie star) because he's a Republican (not because he's a movie star), as if Schwarzenegger stood on some great ideological platform (other than the "I'm a fucking movie star" platform).

I've talked to a number of Californians who voted for Schwarzenegger. Not one of them, when asked why they voted for Schwarzenegger, tells me "I voted for him because of his strong Republican ideals." They all say something like, "I think he'd make a good governor." Whatever the fuck that means.

If you think people voted for Schwarzenegger because he's a "Republican," I've got some oceanfront property in Kansas I'd like to sell you.

[OpelGT]

28. I assume nothing

I know it was not become of some great vision that Arnold has put before anyone. It's not neccesarily because he is a Repub. It is largely because of name recognition, and probably more because of the fact the he's not Gray Davis. But the fact still remains that the people out here voted for a pub. 62.1% between two of them to be exact. That shows that CA can possibly be in play. If folks were so opposed to having a pub in gov's office here, more would have voted for Bustamante, not Arnie, or McClintock. Unfortunately, not enough did.

For whatever reasons, the majority of voters voted for someone with that damned "R" attached to them. The ones who voted for Bustamonte or McClintock likely did vote for them based on ideals, and those who voted for Scwharzenegger voted mostly on name recognition, and the car tax and drivers license promises. The fact still remains that most folks voted "R", and if anyone thinks * and Rove are not cooking up something to make that fluke turn into a trend, they are fooling themselves.

The only point I was making is that CA is definitely not totally out of reach of the pubs in 2004.

[eissa]

24. I think we live in the same area

I'm from CA's central valley, which is like the Mississippi of CA. It is amazing some of the rw crap that comes out of the mouth of the locals. I hope the repukes blow off CA as a blue state, but quite frankly it could be really close.

[OpelGT]

29. My bet..

is that with Arnie in the Govs office, we will get the full on W blitz out here. It was closer in 2000 than anyone thought it would be, without any real campaigning done out here, and the * crew surely noticed it. That prick is sure to campaign his ass off out here. The only good thing that can come out of it will be that he's going to have to throw a bunch of money around the state, and that's definitely something that we can use right now.

[ProfessorGAC]

11. One Observation

I noticed that the bottom 9 states on this list are all very large states in area in which hardly anyone lives. Hmmm! Interesting.
The Professor

[spindoctor]

12. A word of thanks to Wyoming

If it wasn't for you guys, my state would trail this list.

Thank you Wyoming, on behalve of myself and the other Nebraskan democrat.

[XNASA]

16. You Hoosiers need to kick it up a notch......

The next least DEM state in the Midwest is Ohio, and Ohio's rating is more than double Indiana's.

What's up with that??

[Hoosier Democrat]

21. Indiana is VERY conservative

While all of the other Rust Belt states have large urban centers, Indiana is still pretty much-small town. With the exception of urban areas like South bend and Gary, most of Indiana is bedrock Republican. Democrats CAN win state wide in Indiana, but these are pretty conservative Democrats: Senator Evan bayh and the late Governor Frank O'Bannon.

Southern Indiana is also much more like the South than the Midwest. There you have a VERY conservative, fundamentalist culture. For example, our state does not allow alcohol to be sold on Sunday and many parts of Indiana observed Jim Crow segregation until the 1960's.

[IrateCitizen]

22. It wasn't always that way...

Eugene Debs was a Hoosier. Kurt Vonnegut was a Hoosier. In fact, Indiana used to be one of the hotbeds of socialism and populism about 90-100 years ago.

I don't think that spirit has necessarily died. It just needs someone to awaken it.

[Granite]

30. Indiana, the most southern northern state

I lived in Indiana for a fairly long time - went to grad school and taught at Indiana University. Outside of a few areas, you can't swing a dead cat without hitting a Republican. It is a conservative state, and not likely to go Dem on a national level anytime soon.

One of my biggest frustrations about living in Indiana (and I loved the Hoosier state) was rarely (if ever) getting a chance to see Presidential candidates. Repubs have the state locked up and make few if any visits, and Dem candidates have no chance - so they don't show up either. That and the fact that, nationally, my votes for Clinton (92) and Gore (00) had no meaning (neither did my vote for Clinton in 96, incidentally, when I was living in Mississippi).

Good characterization of the southern part of the state. While my friends in southern Indiana hate the comparison, they are more politically alligned with Kentucky than they are with northern Illinois.

[Padraig18]

25. I'm proud to be an Illinoisan!

#10-- woo hoo! :bounce:

[NewJerseyDem]

27. New Jersey

I saw that in today's Gallup poll on party identification that New Jersey was one of 4 states that was considered a tossup along with Maine, Washington and New Mexico. New Mexico makes sense and I thik that Main and Washington lean to the Democrats but aren't overwhelmingly democratic. But, New Jersey makes no sense. I guess that a lot of people in the state still consider themselves republicans from when the state leaned republican about a decade ago but I think that many no longer vote for national republicans.