Overcoming the GOP Southern Strategy

[Sandpiper]

During the run up to election season, I've heard a lot of talk and seen a lot of handwringing about the GOP "Southern Strategy" and how the Dems can't win without the south. The more I thought about it, the more I realized a few things: 1) It's just not true, 2) The GOP is going to carry most of the southern states anyway, so there's no point in wasting a lot of time there, and 3) With a Midwest/West strategy of their own, the Dems could still win and lose every southern state.

Anyway, let me elaborate.

1) It's just not true - For starters, even if Bush wins every single southern state (AL, AR, FL, GA, KY, LA, MS, NC, SC, TN, TX, VA, WV), that puts his electoral vote total at 166, still 104 shy of the 270 that he needs.

Secondly, the Dems have a solid base of their own to start out with: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NM, NY, RI, VT, WA...worth 188 electoral votes. I don't understand the panic. We're in a pretty strong position to start out with just going with the Dem reliables.

Moving on though,

2) The GOP is going to carry most of the southern states anyway, so there's no point in wasting a lot of time there: There are at least 9 southern states that are going to vote Bush no matter what the Dems do. Most of the south is far to the right of most of the country, and the far right controls the GOP today. GWB is one of their own. Consequently, the Dem candidate should not expend much energy in: AL, GA, KY, MS, NC, SC, TN, TX, VA. These states are lost causes.

The energy should be focused on southern states that the Dems stand a chance of winning: AR, FL, LA, and WV. All of these states are very winnable and losing them would be a major blow to any prospect of reelection for Bush.

And finally,

3)With a Midwest/Western strategy of their own, the Dems could still win and lose every southern state. For starters, the Dem nominee can shore up the following Gore states where the vote was a little closer than the others. MI, MN, OR, PA, WI. These 5 are worth 65 electoral votes and added to the other states, it puts the Dem candidate at 253.

Finally, the Dem candidate should key on the following Midwest/Western states. In the midwest, OH & MO. Both of the states have manufacturing based economies and are heavily unionized. Hammer home how they've been hurt by Bush's economic policies, and emphasize that Southern style conservatism isn't working for them, and you have 31 electoral votes ripe for the plucking.

In the west, concentrate on NV and AZ. Both of these states are undergoing a process of realignment. Both have had massive increases in population from out of staters. Most of these out of staters are northeasterners who came there for the warm weather and cheap real estate. Win these two, and that's 15 more electoral votes.

In the end, what I'm trying to say is, friends, do not despair. The south is not the political juggernaut that it's made out to be, and Bush's hold on the White House is far more tenuous than his handlers would like you to believe. Last election he wrung out just about every vote he could possibly get, he still lost the popular vote by over half a million, and needed SCOTUS to give him Florida in order to win.

Let's all be of good cheer, and do our part to make sure there's no room for error in Bush's defeat this time around.

[wolfman23507]

1. VA a lost cause???

Gore only lost Virginia by 6 points and never competed there.

[Sandpiper]

2. VA has gone Republican

Every presidential election since 1964. So, yes, I'd call it a lost cause. Clinton lost there twice.

[wolfman23507]

5. Re:

Clinton never contested here either. I am from Virginia and it is pretty much 50/50.

[FrenchieCat]

3. Oh, I see....

Let's just give the GOP the 5 Democratic Senate Seats at play in the South.

I have a better idea......Why don't we get a candidate that will appeal to the South? How's that for a novel idea. Maybe then we can retain some of those seats! Wouldn't want to lose the presidency and the power to fillibuster, would we???????

Clark could take AR and LA....if you ask me.....possibly TN as well!

Wow, I am amazed at your analysis!

[schultzee]

8. If Clark campaigns in Louisiana, he probably could take it.

[Sandpiper]

10. If you'd read my post a little more carefully

You'd see that I listed the following as southern states that the dems could win: AR, FL, LA, and WV. TN is a possibility, but considering that Gore lost it and it was his own home state, it seems less likely than the others.

Why don't we get a candidate that will appeal to the South?

Like I said, waste of time in most southern states. I lived in the south for 11 years, how bout you? I think I know a little something about the political climate there. There are at least 8 and probably 9 southern states in which the dems stand no chance. I guess we could try to "fight the good fight" and schmooze southern states that we have no chance to win. If that's the strategy, I hope you enjoy four more years of Bush.

The surest recipe for failure in this election is to spend our energy where it will profit us nothing.

Wow, I am amazed at your analysis!

And I'm amazed that you would think a loser strategy like targeting solid Bush states is going to get us anywhere in 2004. If we waste our time in states that love Bush, we're going to get hammered in November.

Why are dems like yourself opposed to winning?

[Dr.Phool]

13. Senate seats

In Florida, we have 3 Democratic candidates, 2 of which can win Bob Grahams Senate seat. Betty Castor, and Peter Deutsch. Screw Alex Penelas after his remarks about what a wonderful job the Miami PD did during the FTAA protests.

A Democrat can take this state, like we did last time. but it's gonna take work.:toast:

:kick:

[La_Serpiente]

4. There are always going to be some southern states that the

dems will lose. However, we have to be on the offensive this election and take the battle to the midwest and south and fight on their own turf. On top of that, we have to be fighting in Minnesota because Bush has a chance to take that state.

[FrenchieCat]

6. Plus....

Rove would Looooove us giving up on the South...then they can use their Zillions on winning the blue states.....

I, for one, think it's folly to exclude the South from any strategy.

[Sandpiper]

12. Again

Perhaps you should actually read my post before going into attack mode. There are southern states that we can win, and southern states that we won't win no matter what we do.

I admire your idealism that the dems will win the south if they just try hard enough. I hope the Dem nominee doesn't share it though.

[IronLionZion]

11. He'll take PA too

unless we fight him tooth and nail.

[IronLionZion]

7. This thing is very winnable

if you think its not, then you are gullible. The GOP wants you to think we'll lose, but really we have a fantastic chance of taking our country back.

on edit: spelling...I'm not drunk I swear!

[cprise]

9. Treat Southerners like everyone else

This generation is different and knows when they're being treated with the "Let's deal with the racists" gloves.