Nader is
not on the 2004 Idaho ballot. Libertarian Michael Badnarik and Constitution Part Michael Peroutka
are.
The
only state level poll in Idaho so far this cycle - a head to head - has Bush at 55% and Kerry at 25%. That shows a 12% drop from
the popular vote for Bush 2000, which isn't a lot different than the approximately 10% drop
found in two SD polls.
Third party candidates do relatively well in Idaho - In
1992, Ross Perot got 27.05% of the vote - the two states he did better than that in were AK and ME.
At at
79% turnout in 2000, the state level poll referenced above put Bush at 275,000 votes and Kerry at 125,000.
If Badnarik and Peroutka comboined don't do as well as Perot did in 1992, but still syphon off 20% of the Bush vote, it becomes:
175,000 Bush/125,000 Kerry.
I think it's reasonable to assume most people that don't bother voting either aren't interested in politics or hold animosity towards politics. On both counts, Kerry has the advantage - disliking Bush plays a role in popular culture and if you already have an animosity towards politics and government, Bush is not going to be your favorite guy - a big spending Patriot Act loving two faced Texan with a fake ranch.
There's about 140,000 votes to work with (that didn't turn out in 2000). Say 2/3rds vote for Kerry and 1/3 vote for Bush.
221,000 Bush, 219 Kerry.
Is Kerry within striking distance in Idaho? What would happen if he took a couple trips to Idaho and told them he loves Idaho even when they don't have snow for him to ski on?
I'm kidding of course, but stranger things have happened! Such as not impeaching president who can't speak or keep the WTC standing, but invaded and colonized a country to show off to his father and came up with legal justifications for torture while driving the nation into untold depths of debt.
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