warning for those of you in the northeast, and mid atlantic, especially

[redsoxliberal]

New England...

There is a fairly good chance that there is going to be a major snowstorm, possibly a blizzard DEC 19-20 (Sunday-Monday.)

No one is really up on this yet in the media, but if the past 4 runs of many of the forecast models continue to verify and stay similar, it looks like a big one. Those of us in eastern New England should be especially interested. The set-up for this storm is the same type that provided the blizzard of 78, and the December 30, 2000 blizzard.

Stay tuned.

[StopTheMorans]

1. damn; so why aren't we hearing anything about this yet in the 5-day

forecasts :shrug:

[redsoxliberal]

2. because it just turned up last night...

and it is 6 days away! :P

[StopTheMorans]

7. weather.com doesn't agree with you

and i hear that they are always 100% accurate in their 10 day forecasts;) :crazy:

[redsoxliberal]

11. graaaahhahaahahhaha

yep... I wouldn't be surprised to see them forecast snow in july :P

[shawmut]

65. expect 20" in Boston

Book it.

[tk2kewl]

3. STOOOOOOOORM OF THE CENTUUUUUUUUUURY!!!!

[skygazer]

4. My method of weather prediction

Look out the window. Works every time.

[cruadin]

5. What are you basing your prediction on?

I'm not disputing you...I'm just wondering what you're looking at that the main stream prognosticators are not seeing.
I live in RI, hence my interest.


P.S. I'm also a big Red Sox fan.

[redsoxliberal]

9. GFS, ECMWF

if their trends hold, by this time tomorrow the mainstream will be on it.
In fact, WHDH actually mentions it a TINY bit at the bottom: http://www.whdh.com/weather

Also, one of the best (IMO, THE BEST) in the business has it in a big way. http://www.wxrisk.com

Where in RI, by the way?


(RED SOX ROCK... WORLD CHAMPIONS BABY!)

[cruadin]

14. I'll be watching the forecasts...

so I can get a headstart. In RI it's a ritual to storm the grocery stores for bread and milk whenever snow threatens (ever since '78, at least).
I'm down south, on Aquidneck Island.

[redsoxliberal]

21. well... i guarantee all snow...

the rain snow line this time will be hundreds of miles out to sea.

[sniffa]

6. i was just thinking

i haven't shoveLed enough this winter

[Debbi801]

8. I'm in Mid-Atlantic (Maryland)...

Checked Weather Bug and Weather Channel dot com and all they're saying is 30% chance of snow showers.:-(

I hope you're right. I could go for a nice snow storm. No work, no school, light the fire place--sounds wonderful.

I'll make sure to hit the grocery store like Thursday, just in case. Gotta stock up on 100 rolls of toilet paper, 10 gallons of milk, and 6 loaves of bread. ;-)

Debbi

[redsoxliberal]

10. to be honest, I'd say at this point

you do not look to be under the gun. However, I would say keep your eyes open, because if it shifts 100 miles south, you'd be looking at a good deal of snow.

[Debbi801]

36. I'll be keeping my fingers crossed. I'd love some snow.

[demnan]

15. Ah, another Wasingtonian?

I can't wait for the snow. People act so fucking nuts around here it's amusing. ;)

[Debbi801]

34. Baltimore, but I know exactly what you mean...

Between the absurd grocery store purchases, the people who slam on their brakes every time a snow flake hits the windshield, the doom and gloom about "how will we ever dig out," etc... It is very amusing. Not to mention, the way the public schools will close before the first snow flake has fallen, in order to prepare. :eyes:

It is crazy!
Debbi

[livinginphotographs]

32. I was always wondered about the bread and milk thing.

Why is there only a run on these two things? Are people just eating plain bread and drinking milk? Why isn't there a run on peanut butter and cereal as well?

/end Jerry Seinfeld moment

[Debbi801]

35. What gets me is toilet paper...

Don't people generally keep a supply of this at home anyway? Do people use more of it when it snows? I just don't understand. :shrug:

Debbi

[barackmyworld]

12. YESS I am leaving Saturday

out of Boston just in time!

[MI Cherie]

13. It's passing through the Great Lakes

Very hit & miss. Just south of here get 6" of snow — we got occasional sleet & flurries. More on the way.

Another source:

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/adcbin/public/index.asp?partner=accuweather

[Longgrain]

16. Please let it be Sunday

I hate driving to work in those blizzards!
Hopefully I'll get snowed in and curl up in front of the fireplace with a cup of hot cocoa with marshmallows!

[arcane1]

17. dammit, don't tell me that!!!!!

:evilfrown:

I have a loved-one flying on the 19th :(

[redsoxliberal]

22. it looks more and more like evening of 19th, then all day the 20th

slow mover.

Hope that helps.

[arcane1]

23. that helps considerably, thank-you

I can breathe now :)

[redsoxliberal]

28. now I can get back to my jubilant

NO SCHOOL MONDAY, TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY!!!

WOOOOOOOHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!




(pending confirmation...:P)

[MissMillie]

18. Perfect

I'll have an extra day to get the house ready for Christmas guests.

[giant_robot]

19. Oh, balls!

I'm not looking forward to snow this winter. I know we're going to get dumped on pretty good at least once or twice, but I'm just not mentally prepared for it yet.

[Midlodemocrat]

20. Oh please, oh please, oh please....

...snow in Richmond.


This is a public service announcement on behalf of Ukrop's supermarkets.

Ha. Ha. Ha.

Better get milk, water, batteries, film for the windows, no wait that is for a chemical attack, bread, dog food, what am I forgetting?

[Richmond27]

25. Alcohol.

[Midlodemocrat]

27. Yep. that's it!! Thanks. and welcome to DU!!!

[JohnKleeb]

24. you lucky bastards

god its just cold here.

[redsoxliberal]

26. it's gonna get WICKED cold soon.

This will be a very cold snow.

All snow, everywhere I think.

[JohnKleeb]

30. a massive snow fest? that'll be the day

Its cold out here in Virgnia, I had two appointments today and I Got a really bad cold so I stayed home, and it was freezing out.

[Midlodemocrat]

31. It IS freezing out today.

...my heat won't kick off.

[Midlodemocrat]

29. John! Congrats on your 40,000 posts!!! Did you see the thread?

[frictionlessO]

33. damn youre good! was tipped off by another weather friend

like at 2 in the morning... Could be a goodun'.

[name not needed]

37. WHOOOOOOOOOO!

:bounce:

[Deb]

38. Thanks, we thought something was on the way

both of us woke up this am with aches and pains. Smells like snow too, if you know what I mean.

Golly, seems all the weather guys should be giving out this heads up info. Thanks again.

[One_Life_To_Give]

39. Thanks for the Heads Up

Guess I had better get the Snow cover on the boat.

[DinahMoeHum]

40. Hoo boy, I'm in Virginia this weekend - hope it happens after that.

Traveling down to Charlottesville this Friday, headed back to NYC on Sunday.

Annual family Xmas get-together.

Fortunately, I'm traveling by Amtrak train. I'm not using my car AT ALL this weekend.

:smoke:

[redsoxliberal]

41. here's the latest:

Basically, there are 3 main weather forecasting models that we should be following here. The GFS (Global Forecasting System), ECMWF (European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasts), and the ETA.

The GFS has been the most 'bearish' of all the models. It drops a short wave (small disturbance that will eventually spawn this storm) south all the way to Georgia. It will then redevelop into a coastal low off of NC and move NE. The low pressure in the low would be 968 MB, the equivalent of a boarderline category 2/category 3 HURRICANE. This solution would bring:
6-10 inches to Washington DC, Baltimore
8-12 inches to Philly
12-18 inches to NYC
30-40 inches for Boston
20-30 inches for Portland
6-10 inches for Pittsburgh, Buffalo
10-15 for Syracuse
15-25 for Albany



The ECMWF is further north with everything, as the shortwave drops into PA. Redevelopment occurs north, as it bombs out (rapidly intensifies) and heads for Maine. In this scenario, NYC might, MIGHT see significant snows, but not the major snows of the previous run. Boston, Portland would still get slammed, but everywhere else would get the shaft.

The Eta shows the shortwave in a way that would support the GFS moreso that the ECMWF. However, the likelihood of the GFS solution verifying is extremely low because of how far south the wave digs. It is an extreme solution. More likely would be that it digs down to VA or NC or even MD, meaning (and this is far out...) these would be my projections:

Washington DC, Baltimore: 3-6 inches 20 MPH winds
Philly: 4-8 inches 20 MPH winds
NYC: 6-12 inches 30 MPH winds
Hartford: 10-15 inches 15 MPH winds
Boston: 24-30 inches 30-40 MPH winds
Portland: 30-40 inches 35-45 MPH winds

I am an amateur, but this is how it looks right now. Also, the only possible concerns with rain/snow are on cape cod.

Stay tuned.

[redsoxliberal]

42. kick

[redsoxliberal]

43. OK, more on this storm:

It's beginning to look like anywhere south of Baltimore is PROBABLY out of the woods.

However, One of the main models on this system, the GFS (so far the most consistent), shows massive amounts of snow for:
Boston (ground zero so to speak for this storm)
NYC
Philadelphia
Portland
Providence
Hartford
--------
Everyone in these cities must watch for greater than 6" of snow. Boston, Providence, Portland, Hartford, and maybe even New York are all under the gun for possibly 18-24 inches, if the GFS verifies.
Philadelphia could get 6-10".
--------
ECMWF shows more of a NYC - northeastward to Nova Scotia. NYC could get 4-6" with this solution, while Boston, and Portland would be under the gun for 18-24" again. Hartford and Providence would also get significant snows.

Those that experience heavy snow will pretty much certainly experience blizzard conditions because of the massive nature of this storm. Watch out, especially new englanders.

[frictionlessO]

44. kicked! thanks!!

[redsoxliberal]

45. no prob! Trying to keep everyone posted.

I'll be making an update at my site in the next hour:
http://www.geocities.com/bostonwinterweather

[Amaya]

46. Oh goodie

I won't be here :)

[bigwillq]

47. I've been hearing the same thing

I hope all the weather forecasts are wrong, like they are most of the time.


I hate snow!

[ElectroPrincess]

48. Not a problem ...

I have my commercial grade fancy smancy snowblower that I purchased last year. Didn't get to use it but twice and not much more than 4".

Let it Snow! <eg>

I love it when the usually snobby neighbors (without a snowblower) kiss my a**. I joke with my daughter, "so and so's" backyard pool don't mean squat today. LOL

[curse10]

49. I hope so! I'm off from school and Alex is taking the day off work!

Snow in!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[nykiera]

50. Our local tv station says that it will probably not affect us.

We are North of Syracuse.

[redsoxliberal]

51. sorry for this continually changing forecast...

latest run of the GFS shows around 20 inches for boston, 16 for providence, 10 for hartford, 4 for new york... Portland easily gets 2 feet... but it is pretty much strictly a New England event if this is to be believed...

[frictionlessO]

56. whats your take on Western New York??

and yeah youre doing a great job for an "amateur"!!

[redsoxliberal]

57. thanks... I'm only 15, so take that amateur out of quotes!

:D

Western NY probably won't see much.
Remember, it's several days out, so keep alert.

[frictionlessO]

58. Holy CoW!!!!

You know what? it just never ceases to amaze me the supercool people I get to meet here.

So you're into weather big time? or are you just studying it in school?
Do your folks know how incredibly smart you are? You might be an amateur now but I get the feeling you could make a living at it in a few more years! Well maybe after college.

but yeah thats cool!
peace!

[redsoxliberal]

59. Into weather big time... but I HATE MATH!

big problem... my parents definitely see it as a potential career for me (I've been doing it since I was 13,) but I pretty much refuse to study math in school after high school.

peace.

[frictionlessO]

61. whats a few more semester of the math in order to do something

you really love??

But I hate math with a passion as well so I have no room to talk.!:dunce:

[redsoxliberal]

62. hahaha maybe you're right... but

is it really just a few more semesters? I will categorically NOT do it if it's constant math... I really wanna do political sciences as well... and something related to negotiations.

[stranger_with_candy]

60. this forecast

will change 20 more times in the next 4 days...

[redsoxliberal]

63. yup.

I expect it will fill in to the west a bit... just keeping you posted.

[DeposeTheBoyKing]

52. LOVELY, seeing as how I have an exam Monday morning

Maybe I should stay overnight at the school Sunday?

[MrSlayer]

53. I wouldn't mind a little snow at the Eagles game.

Snow football is tons of fun and we haven't had one at The Linc yet.

[NC_Nurse]

54. Will it make it down to us in NC?

Chapel Hill area?

Tell me we won't get an ice storm instead...that would REALLY suck!

[redsoxliberal]

55. maybe snow showers... but as i have said above

the most recent run shows this as a new england only event.

[shawmut]

64. I won't be satisfied with anything less than 2 feet

[Arkana]

66. Please, please let it be Sunday-Monday...I'll be at school and I don't

want to get trapped there! Stupid finals...