Disaster Brewing in Boston

[redsoxliberal]

The local mets need to open their eyes. It is looking more and more like a major blizzard late sunday into late monday or early tuesday. The support for this storm has become overwhelming in the last 2 runs, and there has been progressively more snow with each run of the GFS and ECMWF (most important two models in Eastern Coast Snowstorms.)
Everyone from Philly north to Canada are under the gun.

Total Precip (GFS latest run)


Total Precip (GFS

Based on area temps, this looks to be approx. 20 INCHES!

ECMWF's latest run:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa!96!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2004121700!!/

Major snows for Boston!
The rest of New England also get hammered.
This is a pretty good bet, but the NWS Boston and the local mets on TV are downplaying BIG TIME. This is too close and too potentially huge to downplay. There may be a DISASTER!
NYC 3-5"
Philly 1-3"
Hartford (very tough, could be much, MUCH more) 5-10"
Providence 18-24"
Boston 18-24"
Portland 12-18"

(Philly-NYC-Hartford could get more, but this is my current best guess.)
I'm am not a professional meteorologist, but I do know what I'm talking about, and this is probably going to be a very big, MAJOR BLIZZARD for Eastern New England especially. Stay tuned.

(Earlier threads: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=105x2233284
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=105x2213208)

[underpants]

1. The whole eco-system is whacked because of a lack of hot air from Pedro

:bounce:

[redsoxliberal]

2. heh.

:D

[dolo amber]

3. Bwahahaha!!

:high five:

:D

[underpants]

7. AND the Jeri curl

:bounce:

[DS1]

8. Those damn spray cans he got off eBay from the 70's punched

a Rhode Island sized hole in our Ozone

[Phillycat]

10. HAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

:thumbsup:

[DS1]

4. On the one hand, I say good luck on your predictions, on the other

I say I hope you're wrong ;-)

Still, thankfully Stop & Shop like to just about give their steaks away, I've got a nice supply frozen :7

[miss_kitty]

5. Do you think this will put 'The Big Dig' behind schedule?

Or over budget? Or make it leak?

:evilgrin:

[redsoxliberal]

12. haha... put it?

[miss_kitty]

17. that's why the evilgrin!

:hi:

[NewJeffCT]

6. Hartford forecasts

This morning, they said that while they originally thought it could be 12" - 24", it has changed to now that we might get a dusting of snow to a few inches, if anything.

[redsoxliberal]

9. they're being mucho conservative.

This will be significant for Hartford I think.

[NewJeffCT]

13. Hartford forecasters tend towards "panic" forecasts

As in, "the wind tomorrow may exceed 10mph, so we advise everybody to stay indoors and not go out unless it's absolutely necessary."

If any serious snow was coming, they'd be falling all over themselves declaring the end of civilization. It's New England, people, suck it up and deal with it!

[skygazer]

16. I agree

Forecasters are forever predicting "major storms", "storm of the century", "severe weather".

It's another example of the media taking a story and running with it and panicking people unnecessarily.

I've lived in New England all my life (except for the past six years). I know how to shovel snow and how to drive in it. I know enough to give myself extra time to get to work. I know what to do if the power goes out.

It's winter. It snows. Big deal.

[jonnyblitz]

15. phew ...

i hope that forcast is the same for me, an hour south in norwich .

[StopTheMorans]

11. did Matcom get into the baked beans again?

:nuke:

[WilliamPitt]

14. And me without my muff

:)

[dolo amber]

23. I'm quite sure you could

find some muff if you tried. ;)

:o

[Minimus]

18. They are saying it will snow in my area of North Carolina this weekend

because we had a thunderstorm recently. And supposedly they say 10 days after a thunderstorm with lightning it will snow.

Old wives tale? Farmer's Almanac? I'm not sure who "they" are but tomorrow is the 10th day so we will see.

Anyone else ever heard of this 10-day theory?

[Redneck Socialist]

19. Interesting, NOAA has nothing for southern NH

They are saying 50% chance of snow. No apocalyptic warnings. :shrug:

[redsoxliberal]

20. aparently none of you can read

that is why this is a dangerous situation. It looks like a very good bet in Boston to see 12"+, probably will see close to 20".

[skygazer]

21. And this is a disaster why?

I understand it's a big storm (if it happens) but "disaster" is not the word I'd use. Okay, so the city gets socked in. Power will probably go out. Streets will be clogged. Schools will be closed.

It's winter. It snows. How does that equate to "disaster?"

These doomsday prognostications are a little extreme.

[redsoxliberal]

22. because if people get trapped in a 20" blizzard

they're in trouble.

[skygazer]

25. Oh, for Pete's sake

If people get caught in a traffic jam, they could be in trouble - that doesn't make it a disaster.

I once drove from southern Vermont to NYC in one of the worst blizzards of the year. It wasn't an easy drive and it took a lot longer than usual but it was not a really big deal.

You're panicking over an "if". That's not rational.

[WilliamPitt]

26. You were watching the History Channel on Wednesday night

Right?

[redsoxliberal]

27. nope.

[Renew Deal]

33. Nope and especially not in New England.

It's not that much snow. Also the Boston Area is very populated. It's hard to get very lost.

[redsoxliberal]

41. I live here. 20 inches is a lot of snow

20.0 inches would be the fifth most in Boston history.

[NewJeffCT]

50. when was the last time...

When was the last time people were stranded in their homes in Boston for days due to a blizzard? Or, for even more than 24 hours?

Maybe some time in the 19th century?

[Shakespeare]

54. You should be a TV weatherman (weatherperson?)!

Because you have definitely got that weather panic thing down! ;-)

(I'm just funnin' with ya...thinking of old Harold Taft in Dallas who used to get breathless and sweaty with his sleeves rolled up and tie loosened every time a thunderstorm blew through)

[yellowdogintexas]

68. Down here, if the temp is predicted to drop before freezing

everybody goes to the grocery, stocks up like they are going on a 4 month expedition and assumes their employer will not be open in the morning.

Old Harold could tell us there would be a heavy frost and people would panic.

Of course there was the infamous Metroplex ice storm 2 years ago that shut this whole place down for 2 days.

I heard we might get down to 32 on Wednesday, better go stock up on supplies.

[Redneck Socialist]

45. Dude relax

I didn't say I didn't believe you, I was corroborating that major weather type folks haven't picked up on this.

If we get a bunch of snow, we get a bunch of snow. It is not the end of the world.

[midnight armadillo]

24. Awesome

I will make sure to take the Saab wagon to work on Monday and test out its new Nokian RSi snow tires! I already am confident our Subaru wagon (with its new Nokian WR's) would make it :-)

Seriously though, snow forecasters in NE are still touchy about the blizzard of '78. There is also a big competition to hype up storms, since if every other station but yours claims that there's a world-ending storm on the way then viewers will switch away to them.

The total amount of snow isn't really the problem, it's how quickly it falls and how much icing, etc. occurs in the process.

[TexasBushwhacker]

28. And what people have in their cars if they get stuck

Seriously, if you're stuck at home you're fine as long as you have heat, food and birth control (if you're fertile and have someone to generate some heat with). It's when people get stuck on the road without food, water, blankets, that things get scary.

[skygazer]

29. Once again

We're not talking about the midwest plains or some remote wilderness area - we're talking about a highly populated metropolitan area. It's not like someone is going to be trapped in their car for three days.

Is everyone on this thread from Florida or something?

[Renew Deal]

36. lol

I was wondering the same thing. Fucking amateurs.

[TexasBushwhacker]

37. So sorry

I'll remember not to express ANY concern for my neighbors to the NE ever again. We've got holidays coming up. People will be traveling on the roads next week. Some could get stuck in areas that aren't heavily populated. Geez!

[Renew Deal]

38. It's not your fault.

This thread is hysterical in more ways than one. The chicken little hysteria is just too much. I actually live in the region and have been all through the northeast. A 20" snowstorm is just not a big deal. People aren't going to freeze to death in their cars unless they are inept. The power will probably not go out. The supermarkets will probably not close. It's not a big deal.

[TexasBushwhacker]

48. Well I hope not

Although I will say, having lived on the Gulf Coast for most of my life, that I'd gotten rather ho hum about hurricanes and tropical storms, UNTIL Tropical Storm Allison in 2001. I still don't go into panic mode, but I don't wait until the last minute to drive home when there's a flood watch either. All things considered, it's better to be stuck at home than at work or by the side of the road.

[Renew Deal]

35. Yes, especially in North Dakota.

I have to wonder how many people here have actually been in a snow storm and/or in Boston. 20" is a big storm, but it's not apocalyptic. And the Boston area is very populated. It's highly unlikely that you will die freezing in your car over the course of days.

[bicentennial_baby]

30. Western Mass? Monday morning?

I have a final at 10:30 am...What are my chances?

[redsoxliberal]

31. western mass is on the bubble

of being really rough or not too bad... be prepared either way...

[Renew Deal]

32. 20+ inches of snow is not a disaster.

It's a snow storm. It's not the first big storm and it wouldn't be the last.

[redsoxliberal]

40. when it goes widely unforecasted

Many people may get fucked over on their Monday morning commute. Being trapped is not fun.

[skygazer]

43. Not fun but again, not a disaster

How long have you lived in New England? I've lived there, except for the last 6 years, for 38 years. I've seen many, many snowstorms and believe me, back years ago, they were not well forecasted. I've been caught in blizzards and ice storms and everything else Nature can throw at you. People know enough to expect snow in the winter and to prepare for it.

Certainly be prepared for any situation but this shrieking of "disaster" is just juvenile.

[redsoxliberal]

44. 10 years.

Blizzard of 78 was forecasted practically perfectly. These model runs show 20 inches, which is only 7 less than 78. I maintain, it could be dangerous for those in Boston who are not aware of this probability.

[skygazer]

46. Well, I'm sure posting it on DU

will give a heads up to those thousands who otherwise would be inundated without realizing their danger. Why don't you put on a sandwich board and walk the streets shouting, "The end is near!" It would probably be more effective.

[regnaD kciN]

69. Remember January - February of '69?

Three storms within two weeks (the first two on consecutive Sundays and Mondays), with the first two dumping more than two feet each, and the last adding another foot.

That was in the days before modern weather tracking, and the only way to detect a storm coming from just off the coast, as at least the first two of these did, was from the Coast Guard lightship off Cape Hatteras. Unfortunately, said lightship was drydocked for repairs at that time, and so the Boston area had virtually no warning of the first storm, and little more than precautionary worries about the second. The most that was predicted for the first Sunday was maybe a couple of inches in some areas. As a result, everyone was out on the roads when the brunt of the storm hit, and they didn't realize how bad it was until the conditions had already become too poor to get home. And to add to the problem, it was very wet snow, and thus heavy enough to bring down lots of branches and tree limbs (on power lines, naturally), and even collapse part of the Sears at Natick Mall!

[Phillycat]

53. Memo from Philadelphia: 20" of snow. You shovel out.

You go to work. End of story. :shrug:

Memo from DC and South: Enough snow to make a FOOTPRINT. City paralyzed for weeks. All schools closed. People running to stores, hoarding food, stealing gas. Mass hysteria ensues.

:)

[regnaD kciN]

67. Memo from Seattle...

Three snowflakes spotted. City officially declared a Disaster Area. Local television stations run nonstop news coverage of "Winter Rampage 2004" (with a special "commemorative" rebroadcast a week later).

[stranger_with_candy]

34. I'll believe this is a monster storm

when i see it. I'm hoping it will be... but usually when these things get hyped up 4-5 days before hand they turn out to be flurries.

[Throckmorton]

39. Searchlight, Searchlight, do not answer

The sky is dalling, and Im apalling

45GH67A

[Tracer]

42. I'm a Bostonian who WAS trapped in a car during a blizzard!

And it was no disaster. It was just plain boring.

No, it wasn't the '78 blizzard, but a 30-incher that came out of nowhere. We were coming back from Vermont and it started snowing heavily. We (and a zillion other cars) made it as far as Nashua before everything ground to a halt.

Were there all night.

[myopinion]

47. It took me 3 hours driving today with only one half inch

Christ you would think people up here know how to drive in the snow, idiots everywhere on 495 to the left and right.

[enigmatic]

52. You think YOU'VE got problems!

I'm out of clean socks. Heh.

[Mike Niendorff]

49. ahhh , that brings back memories

Best day I ever had in Boston: April Fools Day, 1997, after 3 feet of snow fell overnight. Was living north of Harvard just off Mass Ave, and we still had to make it in for morning class. So there I am lugging my backpack full of law books down the avenue, trying to get to crim law on time so as not to piss off professor Parker, and it's like the whole area suddenly had turned into a ghost town. The only other soul I saw the whole way in was one lone guy silently making his way down the center of the thoroughfare on cross-country skis. I swear, it was absolutely surreal. Ever since then, every time I hear about snow in Boston, that's the image that comes to mind :)

</memories>


MDN

[midnight armadillo]

55. That WAS a freaky storm

The storm was made even more surreal when it just melted away in the April weather in like 3 days.

[Kathy in Cambridge]

60. And it was like 80 degrees the weekend before that storm

it was my birthday and we were having margaritas on the patio. New England has whacky weather!

[Amaya]

51. Oh darn! I'll miss the big snow storm!

Going on vacation tomorrow :) Have fun and good luck :hi:

[graywarrior]

56. In '78, I was on a bus from Boston to Lynn at 7pm on the first night

Got off up the street from my house, walked 1/4 mile in 3 feet of snow and incredible winds. Took me 20 minutes to get home.

Got snowed in for a week and unbelievably had power so we could watch Dukakis in his sweaters tell us about all the cars trapped on route 128. We survived. Although some people in Revere and Nahant got killed and many houses were destroyed by water.

THAT was a freak storm which was reported to only occur every 100 years...like they know.

[Jack_Dawson]

57. Perfect Storm II?

[redsoxliberal]

58. negative.

Lots of snow, very windy too!

[DeposeTheBoyKing]

59. Will Pittsburgh dodge it?

They're saying just "snow showers" here on Sunday.

[bigwillq]

61. Stop trying to spread the bad news!

Snow, snow go away!:hi:


But at least you're trying to warn us!

[Renew Deal]

62. It's snowing like crazy on LI.

Maybe you were right. ;)

[Arkana]

63. Oh, please don't say that...I want to go home

if it is a blizzard, I won't be able to go home till Tuesday. :(

[curse10]

64. Well, I have nowhere to be- so I'll be under the covers with

Alex and my kitties and a good book.

[shawmut]

65. We're going to get about 3"

*yawn*

[Kathy in Cambridge]

66. And maybe not even 3"-it was DRIZZLING earlier

and it's still in the 40s-too warm to snow. :boring:

[Zenlitened]

71. Midnight, and it's turned over to snow here out west of 495...

It was drizzling earlier here, too.

Very very light snow right now, just beginning to coat the pavement.

We'll see.

[Forkboy]

70. Or not