What is the likelihood of another big blackout this summer

[Lavender Brown]

like the one that occurred the summer before last? I never really understood what happened with the power grid to make that happen. :shrug:

[halobeam]

1. I hope last night was no indication for us here.... NY... our town was out

for about 45 mins. They said, "demand is too high" ...:shrug:

[Lavender Brown]

3. Yikes

I hadn't heard of any outtages. Well hopefully it won't happen in the city. I had to walk home last time it happened ... it took hours.

[halobeam]

5. I remember that night very well...

that was our tenth anniversary and had plans to have dinner out (first time in two years actually). Next time we finally made plans to go out to dinner, it was the next massive blizzard we had, a complete "white out".. LMAO... needless to say, haven't made plans yet to go out again, but when we do, we promise to forewarn EVERYONE.

[Hokie]

2. I would say it is possible

The utilities have all cut maintenance to the bone. The don't do as much tree trimming, transmission line, and substation maintenance as they used to.

In August 2003 the system was in a weakened condition in the upper Midwest because several generation stations and transmission lines were out for various reasons. During a heat wave a couple of lines overloaded and tripped in Ohio and this put the load on other lines that could not handle it so they began tripping. This happened over a matter of minutes. It spread across Ohio and into Canada and Michigan. I talked to a guy with one of the utilities that was involved and he said that they were close to shutting down the entire east coast of the US had not a system operator isolated the failing part of the system from the rest of it.

The transmission system is like a bunch of rubber bands holding up a bunch of weights. If a few rubber bands break the others can hold up the weights. However, if enough break the rest will break quickly if you do not remove the weights. Of course, the real system is much more complex than that.

[Lavender Brown]

4. That's a good way of explaining it

It seems like common sense that a heat wave overextends the system, but that last time it was so unexpected.