NEW ORLEANS now in direct path of Hurricane Katrina

[Bluebear]

Latest forecast has New Orleans in Katrina's cross-hairs

Blanco declares state of emergency as Katrina shifts west

The latest forecast track for Hurricane Katrina - issued at 10 p.m. CDT - has the strengthening storm crossing lower Plaquemines, then north on a line across the New Orleans metro area.

The storm is now a Category 2, with sustained winds of 105 mph and higher gusts. It is expected to strengthen to Category 3 by Saturday, and some major models have it strengthening to a Category 4, or even Category 5 by landfall Monday evening.

Earlier Friday, Gov. Kathleen Blanco declared a state of emergency as an adjusted major shift west in the projected track of Hurricane Katrina threatened Southeastern Louisiana.

Katrina, the 11th named storm of a busy season, was upgraded to Category 2 as it moved deeper into the Gulf of Mexico on Friday afternoon, after crossing Florida yesterday. Homes were flooded, fallen trees blocked roads and utility crews scrambled to restore power to more than 1 million homes and businesses Friday as South Floridians coped with Hurricane Katrina's messy aftermath.

Seven deaths were blamed on the storm as it crossed Florida. Much of the seven hours Katrina spent over land Thursday was over the moist Florida Everglades, allowing for only slight weakening.

Blanco declared a state of emergency earlier Friday after the 5 p.m. forecast called for landfall in the Biloxi area, ordering the state's disaster preparedness offices to start taking precautions, saying Katrina posed an "imminent threat." Meanwhile, emergency preparedness officers in southern Louisiana were mobilizing on their own.

"We were looking at it going up the East Coast two days ago and now it's looking like it will hit the central Gulf Coast," said Larry Ingargiola, director of the St. Bernard Parish Emergency Preparedness. "Like we always say, the only one who knows where a storm will go is the man upstairs."

More worrisome was that experts with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration warned that the hurricane's track could move even further west, Ingargiola said.

"We just hope our people are prepared," he said. "It's kind of late in the year to be making disaster plans."

William Maestri, the emergency director for Jefferson Parish, said he was concerned about the movement west and how it was intensifying.

New Orleans City Hall spokeswoman Tami Frazier said officials were watching the storm, and had activated what she called the lowest alert level — monitoring storm movements

http://www.nola.com/newslogs/weather/

Sorry, breaking the 4 paragraph rule for the first time, urgent info.

[Floogeldy]

1. Hey

If I wanted a weather report, I'd turn on the fucking Weather Channel.

But, thanks for your consideration.

:)

[Name removed]

3. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Floogeldy]

8. Easy, tiger

It's all right.

;)

[Bluebear]

5. Pipe down or I'll put on my weatherman's checked blazer

:)

[Floogeldy]

6. And a damn good looking meteoroligist you would be.

I'm jealous.

:)

[darkstar]

71. Me too!!!

I'd strap on that Fool *guitar*, don that Ray Davies jacket jpgrays been showing everyone, and proceed to tell you about upper level troughs while strobing like a late 60's light show in front of the green screen.

:hi:

[merh]

2. Folks in New Orleans - leave now!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT12/refresh/AL1205W_sm2+gif/025402W_sm.gif

:scared:

[Floogeldy]

4. Do you get paid for this?

;)

[Name removed]

7. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[merh]

No - no pay required.

I live on the MS Gulf Coast and I have survived a Category 4 hurricane.
I was a kid when Camille hit, but I will never forget the storm or the devasation. I don't want folks in NO to be trapped in that bowl they live in. :scared:

[Bluebear]

10. There used to be a restaurant in Biloxi...

Jimmy O'Grady's or some such Irish name. They had pictures on the wall of Camille and I will never forget the one where a boat was beached like 5 blocks inland.

[merh]

14. Hell - Did you ever see the photos of the barges loaded with the

newspaper rolls that were beached? Those were incredible.

I can remember walking to the beach after the storm - highway 90 was in chunks and dead animals littered the beaches.

[jobycom]

18. Did one of them block 90?

I have a memory as a kid of driving alongside a barge across the highway. I swear I remember that they had cut through the barge so cars could get through, but that may be a four year old mind trying to make sense of something else.

[merh]

24. I don't remember how they moved them.

There were 3 barges and than a big ship stranded too.

It was all so odd -- the streets were torn up - you couldn't drive on 90, it was just chunks of pavement. Actually, the pavement chunks is what they used to build Moses Pier and the Pier at the Harbor.

[Bluebear]

28. And then there were the Richelieu apartments >>>>>>>>

Where people decided to have a hurricane party.


BEFORE


AFTER

[merh]

34. I knew one of the survivors.

Mary Ann Gerlache - I worked for the attorney that defended her. She killed her husband (I can't remember if it was her 7th husband or her 13th). She stood over him with her gun and unloaded it into him as he was on the ground.

Part of her defense was she was mentally disturbed after having survived Hurricane Camille, being washed away with bodies and spiders and debri and struggling to survive.

She was sentenced to life.

[Bluebear]

37. Oh that old "Hurricane defense" eh?

[merh]

43. She was a whacko.

She was not a stable human being. :freak:

[pitohui]

59. there is natural disaster post-traumatic stress order

while the woman does not need to be free to wander around shooting at other ppl, the trauma can be very real

i have been shot at

i am a natural disaster survivor

being shot at was a lot easier to get over

a lot easier

something abt water rising & the sky falling on you rilly makes you lose yr faith in the goodness of the universe

& that's prob. all i'll say on that subject

[merh]

73. She didn't just shot her husband

She stood over him and emptied the gun. She was not balanced and she believed she was the daughter of satan (why she was allowed to survive the storm when others died). Even after her conviction, during the appeal, she corresponded with another inmate accused of killing and they had a "love affair" by mail, they both professed to be the spawns of satan.

I would never second guess what happens to a person that survived the ordeals she survived that night.

[jobycom]

39. She's the one I was describing below.

[merh]

44. That's her.

She was never right after that.

[jobycom]

48. My history teacher at Perkinston Junior College wrote a book

about hurricanes on the Coast, and talked about her. He said the jury decided that though she was crazy, she wasn't legally insane.

[merh]

50. Your teacher was right.

That is why they didn't sentence her to the gas chamber. I think it was gas chamber at that time. They stopped using the electric chair years before.

[Kurovski]

51. Spiders?

[merh]

52. Yep, she claimed the spiders in the water were crawling

all over her. I am not sure if there were spiders or not. I have never been caught in a 20 foot tidal surge, I don't know what is in the water. It could have been limbs and sea weed and sea oats and she thought they were the spiders. :shrug:

[jobycom]

63. You know, I did some more research just now on her and the Apartments

It claims the hurricane party was a myth, and that Mary Ann made up a lot of the story. That's news to me, and goes against my history prof, but it could be true. Charles Sullivan loved a good story better than a fact at times.

From wikipedia:
One persistent legend about Camille states that a hurricane party was held on the third floor of the Richelieu Manor Apartments in Pass Christian, Mississippi that wound up in the path of the eyewall as it made landfall. The high storm surge flooded and destroyed the building, and there was only one survivor to tell of the story of the 21 others. Who the survivor is, how many party guests there were, and just how far the sole survivor was swept by the storm varies with the retelling.

In reality, most of the people that stayed in the Richelieu Apartments survived, and there was no party. Residents, exhausted from helping to prepare the town to weather the storm, took refuge in the building not out of recklessness, but because it was believed to be one of the sturdiest buildings in the area. Survivor Ben Duckworth is quoted in Hurricane Camille: Monster Storm of the Gulf Coast as stating that the Richelieu was a designated civil defense air-raid shelter. However, their faith in the building's sturdiness was unfounded, as it was completely demolished by the storm. Twenty-three people are known to have stayed in the Richelieu Apartments during Hurricane Camille, but only eight died.

The tale of the lone survivor and the party appears to have originated with survivor Mary Ann Gerlach. Other survivors, including Duckworth and Richard Keller have expressed irritation at the story.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Camille

[pitohui]

83. don't you think it was the fire ants not spiders

i've been in water w. fire ants

it's nasty

i just read an article abt fire ant "balls" that have occurred during major hurricanes

i don't know when fire ants arrived in the gulf south but they were already here in the early 70s

maybe she did not know what they were at time of camille and assumed spiders

[jobycom]

38. That slab was empty for decades. 60 people died, I think.

There's a story from one apartments, I think that was them, of a couple who decided to stay. They were on the second floor, and woke up when someone below started banging on the ceiling. The woman opened her curtains to yell down at the party below, and her windows were underwater. The knocking was the furniture floating into the ceiling below. The whole apartment collapsed, and she and her husband grabbed some pool toys and hung on. She watched her husband carried out to sea as the tide pushed her inland and wedged her twenty feet up in a tree several blocks inland. She never saw her husband again. She was the only survivor from that complex, I think.

Every hurricane is different. Some are strong winds and a little rain. Some spawn a lot of tornados. Some move very slow and flood a region with rain. Some come halfway ashore and just sit there, pounding and flooding everything.

Camille hit right at high tide, and it was a tightly-wound, fast moving affair. It hit the coast with a twenty foot storm surge and waves crashing on top of that. That's extremely high for a hurricane. That's what killed most of the 200 people who died in Mississippi. Once the wall of water receded, the two hundred MPH winds kicked in. The storm carried ships onto shore, tore out bridges and highways by the roots, cut an offshore island in two, and did things you'd have to see to believe.

People hear "hurricane" and think "big storm." Camille was a tsunami, a giant tornado, a thunderstorm and a flash flood rolled into one. Something like that hit Galveston in 1900 and killed 6000 people, and Key West in the 30s. A class four or five hurricane is truly terrifying.

[merh]

25. Here ya go.

These ships were moored out in the gulf -- they had anchored out in the gulf to ride out the storm.

[jobycom]

16. Mary Mahoney's?

It's an old restaurant, still there.

[Bluebear]

23. No, Mary Mahoney's I remember...

this one was farther down on the road to Gulfport, just a breakfast/lunch type of deal.

[SouthernDem2004]

56. Mary Mahoney's has been there forever. Its just north of the Beau Rivage.

[SouthernDem2004]

55. Yes, Mahoney's is still there and open.

[merh]

26. Gus Stevens?

????

How long ago?

[Bluebear]

29. Hmm about 15 years ago

It had an Irish name...oh well, not important but I was there when Hugo hit the Carolina's

O'CHARLEY'S! found it

[merh]

32. Oh, O'Charleys

It's still there and it does have all of those photos of what the Coast looked like after Camille.

Why didn't I think of that! :-)

[Bluebear]

33. Pretty good memory for a geezer, eh?

:)

See, it made an impression though.

here's a pretty comprehensive gallery of before/after photos of Camille
http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/about_us/meet_us//roger_pielke/camille/gallery.html

[merh]

35. I have never thought of you as an old geezer and I never will!

:hug:

Thanks for that link - I hadn't seen it before. I was getting my images from the Seafood Museum website and the New Orleans newspaper's library.

[Bluebear]

36. XOXO

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT12/refresh/AL1205W_sm2+gif/025402W_sm.gif

is this getting far enough away from you?

[merh]

42. See post 22.

The worst winds are on the east side of the storm, if I am not mistaken. It's how they spin. When Denise hit over in Pensacola, to my east, the waters of the Bay were being "sucked" out, the currents were pulling the waters out to the Gulf with the force of the storm.

If this storm hits to my west as far away as New Orleans, I will get the water and the winds. I think she has a 50 mile radius. So if she hit NO, it won't be as bad as if she hits Bay St. Louis.

[jobycom]

45. They always say it's the north-east quadrant that's the worst

But that's also the smallest quadrant. The worst thing is having the eye pass, because then the winds change directions, and things that were weakened in one direction then get the wind from the other side, and that sometimes finishes them off. There are few things as eerie as the eye of a hurricane. Most natural disasters hit and pass on, or end. A hurricane gives you two storms for the price of one.

[merh]

49. Last night the Weather channel fellow said that Katrinia

didn't really have an eye - at least there was no "quiet time" before the winds shifted.

[merh]

46. Now this is an image I haven't seen in years.

The Merry Masion before Camille -- it was a wonderful house/mansion. It was abandoned at the time Camille hit, we used to ride our bikes to it and sneak in, word was it was haunted.



After Camille :-(

[southlandshari]

66. Old geezer - LOL

That may be true, as I've never seen you, darlin', but if so - you are one heck of a cool old geezer in my book!

:hi:

[jobycom]

40. Not the one by Edgewater?

That's not that old. Was there an older location?

[Bluebear]

41. On Beach blvd past Beauvoir en route to Gulfport

[jobycom]

47. In front of Edgewater Mall, right?

That was a different restaurant when I was a teen, and I'm not sure the building was even there during Camille. In fact, I'm almost sure that land was the Edgewater Apartments back then. I remember watching them implode the apartments to make room to expand the mall.

[SouthernDem2004]

57. The restaurant is newish. Its in the mall parking lot just west of the

Sears service center.

[jobycom]

62. It used to be a Denny's or something

My girlfriend (later my wife) and I had a running joke about it when we were in high school, 23 years ago.

Maybe Bluebear meant there were pictures of Camille in the restaurant, not that the restaurant was their during Camille. Now that I reread what he said.

[watrwefitinfor]

69. I heard they rebuilt Gus Stevens after Camille?

They had the best pancakes in the world. Was there in winter of '63. Roosevelt Sykes played the back room at Gus Stevens. Old New Orleans piano man, supposed to have been Fats Domino's inspiration and perhaps teacher? He was amazing.

Have home movie footage of snow falling past the palm trees in front of the beautiful old Biloxi Hotel with the gulf in the background - snow was a once in a lifetime occurrence, the natives said. Heard the Biloxi Hotel was wiped out by Camille, too.

Haven't thought of those places in forever. Never been back. Cried after Camille for the Gulf Coast I knew so briefly and the wonderful people I met there.

Wat

[merh]

77. They tried to revive it after Camille, but it was never the same.

My dad used to take us to Gus Stevens on our birthdays, just Dad and the birthday kid. He'd have his cocktail and we would get a shirley temple or roy rogers with a cherry.

Elvis used to perform at Gus Stevens and that is the last place Jayne Mansfield performed before she was killed. She actually left the club headed to the airport in NO when she was killed in the auto accident.

Gus Stevens was a special place.

[HeeBGBz]

80. Ooh, Gus Stevens Hot Groceries

That place was cool, but is no longer there.

[Floogeldy]

11. I guess that's why you are beloved.

:)

[merh]

17. I don't know about that -

:blush: :shrug:

A hurricane like this isn't one to mess with. :hi:

[jobycom]

13. I was four years old in Bay St. Louis when Camille hit

My parents live in Saucier, and I was planning on heading out there for Labor Day. Might have to wait, now.

[merh]

15. We will have to see if it keeps going west - I pray it goes west of

NO, to the swamps.

Your parents would love you to come home for Labor Day!!

We are planning a DU meet up in November down here (if there is a down here - Katrina needs to go on to to swamps) :hi:

[jobycom]

22. You know they always turn back east before they hit.

Usually they hit just east of where they are projected to hit. I hope this one goes somewhere other than NO, though. That dreaded shot up the mouth of the Mississippi would be worse than taking out a few casinos.

[merh]

30. If it goes east, before it hits, that means Pass Christian will take

the hit, just like with Camille - that means Long Beach, Gulfport, Biloxi & Ocean Springs will get the "bad winds" and the water from the Gulf will fill the rivers and the Biloxi Back Bay.

Hurricane Camille changed the course of the Biloxi River. Shrimp boats that had taken harbor on the river were trapped and never able to be moved. Same with the Tchoutacabouffa River.

[HeeBGBz]

81. Let me know about the Meetup, Merh

I'm new down here and don't know anyone.

[HeeBGBz]

79. Hey Merh, good luck to ya

Are you leaving or hunkering down.

I'm staying, but I'm in the C evac zone. Not that that will make a big difference.

[merh]

82. I'm leaving my A for a C - so I'll be fine.

Might leave tomorrow night, not sure when this thing will hit. They were reporting land fall to happen Monday night, now some folks saying Monday morning? :shrug:

You be save HeeBGBz! :hi: Just prepare for the worst and hope for the best! :hug:

[yankeeinlouisiana]

12. Oh, shit! That really moved west!!

The last time I checked it was still over by Mississippi/Alabama. Well, I guess the kids won't be going to school on Monday.

[merh]

20. No, Monday the schools will probably be closed.

I know it really moved to the west, this a.m., they had it hitting Panama City and now look at it. Maybe it will keep going to the west.

[southlandshari]

67. Oh dear, mehr

Perhap we should move drinks on the deck to my place next weekend?

:-(

Stay safe - and please check in here whenever possible if it gets bad for you - or better yet, get the heck outta there and come to Alabama for a visit! Next weekend is opening weekend for college football - yay!!

[merh]

75. I don't think we need to worry about meeting next weekend.

Maddy said she can't, she has chapters to write, research to do -- she was on line yesterday because of the storm. She will take a break this weekend to prepare for the storm.

We need to plan a meet up for November. :hi:

I'll be safe. I don't intend to take any chances. Thanks :hug:

[Swede]

9. This could be a bad bad thing.

NOLA is below sea-level,there have been documentaries about the consequences. I hope they get everybody out.

[MnFats]

19. NOLA has never taken a direct hit, has it?

I thought one of those documentaries stated that. Hope NOLA's luck has not run out...

[jobycom]

27. Betsy was a direct hit, as I recall

I was just born. My parents' house in Mississippi flooded. The way my parents tell it, Betsy went straight up the mouth of the Mississippi, pushing the river ahead of it and flooding the underground waterworks and overworking the pumps, so that New Orleans flooded. But none has hit NO since then, not as directly.

My parents are from New Orleans, and had just moved to Mississippi shortly before Betsy hit. Betsy put about four foot of water in their house (our house, I was five months old, or around that).

[MnFats]

31. Google says you are correct...1965

from the first site you come to googling Hurricane Betsy:

Vital statistics as follows:

Nassau,Bahamas 126mph
North tip of Andros Island 126mph
Key Largo,Florida hit with 126mph
Tavernier,Florida gusts to 120mph
Plantation key,Florida gusts to 100mph
Key West,Florida gusts to 81mph
Miami bch,Florida gusts to 91mph
At 28.3N x 89.2W 50miles s.e of Louisiana coast 155mph
Port Sulfur,Louisiana gusts to 136mph
New Orleans 105mph
S.Florida 6 ft storm surge
East Louisiana 8 to 10 ft storm surge
Lowest Pressure 941mb or 27.76inch
Born as Cape Verde storm August 27th & died sept 11th over the southeast U.S
Betsy was attempted to be cloud seeded but the eye was not well enough formed. Scienentist were blamed for erratic movement as they were flying research missions into Betsy.

[long_green]

76. Betsy was NOT a direct hit

The eye passed to the west of the city. The tremendous flooding was caused by the "Northeast Quadrant Effect."

[jobycom]

78. Thanks.

I was five months old, I guess my memory was faulty. :-)

That's just how I remember my parents talking about it, but I guess I remember wrong. I thought they said it moved over the the Industrial Canal.

[pitohui]

61. what's a direct hit mean then?

i never understand this claim

we've had plenty of hits

most are trop storm force winds but some hurricanes have hit

hell andrew brought down a tree on the house behind me, power out for days, it hit florida and somehow came back & hit louisiana

don't kid yrself

my house was taken out in a tropical storm & plenty of others have been as well, hurricanes have hit as well

media seems to think if it isn't cat 4 it isn't a hit

[jobycom]

65. The mythical "direct hit"on New Orleans

has always referred to a strong hurricane that travels up the river or through the swamp and hits New Orleans with the storm surge--the most deadly part of a strong hurricane. I think some media people don't realize what the locals are talking about, and take it to mean New Orleans hasn't been hit at all. Andrew was a Class 3 when it hit Louisiana, so obviously New Orleans has had hurricanes come through.

Check out pictures of Camille, and imagine that in New Orleans. Camille would have broken the levies, and might have washed a ship or two into the French Quarters. It could have taken out the Pontchartrain bridges and might have brought down a couple of the river bridges. It could have even changed the course of the river through the Atchafalia, as the river is continually trying to do.

The "direct hit" fear is a fear of catastophic destruction, in other words. It's the equivalent of "the big one" earthquake fear in California.

[pitohui]

68. yeah that usage just grates on me

it's like, if it isn't worst case & everybody dies, it's no big deal

tell it to somebody who didn't have a roof cave in on her, mr. media dude

[MnFats]

70. Hey, I'm from Minnesota. What do I know from hurricanes?

Ask me about blizzards. That I can tell you about.
Or -35 degrees.

[pitohui]

60. no one's getting out

there is no evac order

[Catherine Vincent]

21. Recommended.

This is important.

[Nothing Without Hope]

53. Oh no - the flood danger to New Orleans has been a potential disaster

for a long time. I hope they have good plans in place for evacuaton of the most threatened areas.

There is no GOOD place for this storm to hit, but I hope it misses New Orleans.

[Nothing Without Hope]

54. Here's the current 5 day tracking map from Weather Underground

Here's the page: http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200512_5day.html



Much info also at the National Hurricane Center. Here's the home page:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml

The storm is still far away from landfall. It's too soon to know where it will come to land. Here's the current satellite image (updated hourly, it says) of the water vapor distribution in the Gulf - one of the dozens of satellight image options at the National Hurricane Center site.

[jus_the_facts]

58. another link....

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT12/refresh/AL1205_PROB34_F120_sm2+gif/085817F120_

[Tsiyu]

64. Somebody tell Swamp Rat to put on his rubbers!

And that goes for the rest of you N'Aleans DUers, too!

:hi: Be careful, All!!!!

[Coventina]

72. C'mon Marie, protect your city! Get that mojo working!

That voodoo that you do so well!

But seriously, sending good vibes and wishes to all in harm's way.

:scared:

[misanthrope]

74. The worst case scenario...

...for NOLA is bad indeed. On a personal level, it's really heartbreaking since New Orleans is one of the few places in the South I actually like and the majority of Dixie's redemption, in my eyes. The Crescent City is one of the most unique places on the globe and a cultural treasure we all take for granted.