Asteroid dubbed "Apophis" (Stargate reference?) to buzz earth...twice in 2029/2036

[Selatius]

On Friday, 13 April, 2036, this thing is gonna be visible to the naked eye according to this video. If it were to theoretically hit the earth, the energy unleashed would be equivalent to 1,600 megatons. The largest nuclear warhead ever detonated was Russia's Czar Bomba at 57 megatons, which was a scaled down model of a 100 megaton version they were planning to build.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dqzsUTPvEN8&mode=related&search=

Prepare for the coming of the goa'uld Lord Apophis.

[FedUpWithIt All]

1. It is calculated to pass nearer than our moon if in fact it does miss us.

http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/050822_asteroid_apophis.html

[Little Wing]

2. sounds like a dusty fart

[LSK]

3. I will be sure to kick this thread in 2028

[kay1864]

4. I saw a segment on Nova on this last summer

It had a significant probability of

IMPACTING OUR PLANET

in 2029.

Fortunately, by Aug 2006 more refined observations eliminated that possibility. Up until then, there was speculation as to how we could nudge it off course.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_Apophis

[kay1864]

5. Update on that energy figure....

(from Wikipedia) A more refined later NASA estimate was 880 megatons. The impacts which created the Barringer Crater or caused the Tunguska event are estimated to be in the 10-20 megaton range. The 1883 eruption of Krakatoa was the equivalent of roughly 200 megatons.

Not that it matters whether it's 880 or 1600--we'd be toast either way.

[Xithras]

6. I disagree. We'd be fine as a species.

I wouldn't want to be within a thousand miles of the impact point (if the shockwave and IR blast didn't kill you, the ejecta would), but we're only talking 4 Krakatoa's here. Krakatoa dropped the global temperature by about a degree and gave most of the world pretty sunsets for a couple of years, but aside from a mild summer and a couple of below normal temp winters it didn't really do all that much. Four Krakatoa's would obviously be worse (sell off those Icelandic winery investments) but a single 1 gigaton explosion isn't enough to do any real long term damage worldwide.

Heck, if anything, some people might see it as a blessing outside of the impact zone. Global temp drops like that would bring rain to Africa and return us to a temperature model analogous to that seen in the Little Ice Age a few hundred years ago. Certainly not a good time to be growing citrus, but not low enough to destroy worldwide crops.

Of course, there's one massive BUT to add in here. Much of the damage inflicted depends on where it hits. It would hit the eastern hemisphere if it struck...think Asia, eastern Africa, or Australia. A land impact would kill a lot of people and throw up lots of ejecta creating the cooling situation I described. It's equally likely, of course, that it would hit water. If that happened the global climate wouldn't be as dramatically impacted, but the mile high tsunami's would do far more damage to human infrastructure and populations. This is especially important for us Americans, since a couple of the models have predicted impact points into the western Pacific. An impact off the coast of Japan or the Philippines would virtually destroy the nearby Asian nations and send a tsunami racing across the ocean that would inundate everything from the Bering Strait to the tip of South America. Imagine LA and Seattle under a 500 foot high wall of water.

The rest of the world would be better off climate wise, but the economic impact of something like that would cripple the rest of the planet.