Mine that Bird. 50-to-1 For Tin foil hatters only.

[The Backlash Cometh]

Okay, so I saw the video of the Kentucky Derby. At first I got all caught up in that rags to riches story. Loved the idea of a 9000 dollar horse beating out million dollar thoroughbreds. This seems to be the year of the underdog, what with Susan Boyle, Stephenie Meyer and now Mine that Bird.

But then, I looked at the video again. What a colossal mistake by at least three jockeys. The Jockey that rode Mine that Bird, is known for taking leads inside the rail. During the race, as they were turning into the last turn, three horses seemed to push off the rail and run the course near the middle. In what was just seconds, Mine that Bird cut across behind them in three horse steps and took the rail. So, here we're looking at the race, jittery excited as the horse is coming from behind and winning by a landslide. I looked at it several times and noticed something. The rail, on the inside was dry. Good traction for any horse. The area where the three other horses were running was sloppy wet. I couldn't help wondering how professional jockeys could fall for such a thing. The terrain alone would slow down the fastest of horses.

So what do you think, Tinfoilers? A brilliantly run race? Incredibly lucky horse? Or, should we look at the put options?

Personally, I don't care if it was. I just wonder how strategy is worked out by the jockeys beforehand. Seems like a colossal mistake.

[TZ]

1. That jockey consistently rides the rails like that.

His nickname is Calvin Bo-"Rail" (Borel). Its the other jockeys fault for not paying attention to him and his horse.
The jockeys and trainers work out strategy together. The other jocks don't. Since jocks only get paid if their horse comes in the money they won't "conspire" together if thats what you are thinking.
Simple logic..no conspiracy theory needed. Especially since being trapped on the rail by tiring horses can be a losing strategy. The rail isn't always the best option..and on a sloppy track, it can be the worst footing despite "appearances" (dirt tracks are notorious for not being what they appear to be)
I suggest you watch the Derby of a few years ago when Street Sense won the Derby in the exact same fashion.

[The Backlash Cometh]

2. So, colossal mistake by the other jockeys, then?

If you look at the video, check the condition of the track. the inside looks good.

However, I think it would be impossible to control all the variables. Too many jockeys involved to swing it.

[TZ]

3. Lots of mistakes by the other jocks yeah.

Nobody and I mean nobody was watching Mine that Bird..even the announcer...I would say most of those other horses were stuck not on the rail and couldn't get over to it. But yeah, races like that are usually because one jock has a perfect trip and the other jockeys louse up somehow. Also, I'm sure the outside horses tired quicker in the slog on the outside...
Frankly, I'll be surprised if Mine that Bird wins again. Seems like a flukely race which happens now and then. Reminds me of when Giacamo (whom I think was about 30-1) won a few years ago

[MrCoffee]

4. What I can't believe is that Borel was available to ride that horse

He was supposed to ride Beethoven, who was out with an injury. He's the king of the rail at Churchill. He had a brilliant ride, but don't take anything away from the horse.

[The Backlash Cometh]

5. I'm sure the horse will be given a chance to prove itself.

But, at 50 to 1, dang. How much time do you suppose betters had to review jockey and horse combos?