Dallas Mavericks are weak and gutless. They are done.

[Ishoutandscream]

Dallas haters take note. The Mavs continue to struggle against undermanned teams, and the 76ers manhandled them. There is no spark, and no true leader. A team with talent that lacks consistency, and still can't play a lick of defense. They'll make the playoffs, perhaps win in the first round, but won't go farther.

They're done. Plain and simple. But luckily, the Stars are peaking at the right time. Their season will probably last longer than the Mavs.

[LoneStarLiberal]

1. The Mavs Are Busting My Balls This Season

I'm not ready to stick a fork in them yet, but damn if they aren't inconsistent as all hell right now! Losing to Atlanta (who has all of two useful players) and the 76ers (minus Allen Iverson) is just downright disgraceful for a team that thinks it's going to compete successfully in the Western Conference postseason.

The Stars look like they do have their act together at just the right time.

But hey...no matter how bad the Mavs fall on their faces, we're about to be treated to another season of major league slugging and softball pitching known as the Texas Rangers...so all else will look positively championship-caliber in comparison!

[Ishoutandscream]

8. Ranger prediction? I'm thinking 63 wins

and 99 loses. Am I being a little too optimistic?

[Catholic Sensation]

19. 75 wins 87 losses

that's my prognosis

[Ishoutandscream]

20. Wow! They only won 71 last year

You are very optimistic.

[LoneStarLiberal]

25. Pitching Will Once More Be The Achilles Heel

Pitching will once more be the Achilles Heel. Having a guy who would be your #4 or #5 on a contender as your #1 says a lot about your starting rotation. The bullpen is not going to be up to the challenge of picking up duty in the 3rd or 4th which it probably will need to do so considering many games will be out of reach if most of the Rangers' starters are left in until the 5th or 6th.

Laynce Nix is going to lose about 20 lbs. running is ass off in centerfield with this staff.

On the plus side the batting lineup is looking good even without #3 in the mix and there are some particularly good free agent pitchers on the market after this season.

Now we can only hope that the Rangers' front office will learn some elementary pitching evaluation skills to go with those dollars they have to spend on pitching!

[Ishoutandscream]

30. Yeah, Chan Ho throws 5 innings and it's a celebration

Well, he allowed 4 earned runs in 5 innings. AND THAT'S CONSIDERED AN ACCCOMPLISHMENT!! Wow, how pitiful is that.

[lazarus]

2. I have my doubts on that first round

Cuban's "My Own Fantasy Team" mentality really bit him this time. Too many trades, hasn't paid attention to chemistry. The trade with Boston was a big mistake. When you're already weak in the middle, with a high scoring offense, getting rid of the only real center you have for another three point shooter is just moronic.

Looks like they'll be a 6 or 7 seed, and match up with the Spurs, Lakers, or Wolves. That'll be 5 or 5 games, and done. Nelson is likely to resign at that point. I've heard rumour of Pat Riley coming west, but I don't believe it. He needs more control than Cubes is going to give up.

I like a lot of what Cuban does, but he needs to ratchet it down a bit. An owner has no business in the huddle during games, for instance. Let the coaches coach, let the GM run the team. That's what you pay them for.

[LoneStarLiberal]

3. Nelson Bears The Blame For No Center

I think that the real problem with the Mavs lack of a true center is not Mark Cuban but Don Nelson. Looking at both his long tenures in Golden State and here in Dallas you see a pattern in his players: Up and down offensive teams that suck defensively and have no true center.

When I think of Nelson and centers, what two names pop into my head? Manute Bol and Shawn Bradley. 'Nuff said.

Cuban has given Nelson long enough to try to prove his run-and-gun style with point guards and point forwards will work in the NBA. I really like Antoine Walker but good god almighty he couldn't make shots to save his family if their lives depended on it!

I would much rather see someone like Brad Miller or Rasheed Wallace here than Antoine Walker. But Miller definitely doesn't fit Nelson's philosophy while Wallace would fit (Nelson covets the Rasheed Wallace-Chris Webber-Antoine Walker big forward who runs the floor and passes and can score type of player) but it's doubtful that Portland would have traded him to a Western Conference foe.

[lazarus]

16. Miller would have been awesome there

But fun-and-gun just isn't going to work.

It's not going to work in Sacramento, either. Lots of points, no defense, will rack up a nice, gaudy regular season record, and no Finals.

Offense wins games, Defense wins championships.

I agree with you on Nelson, but Cuban has been so interactive with the team, why hasn't he just imposed a center on Nelson?

[LoneStarLiberal]

23. More On Center Matchups

My guess is that Cuban wants to believe that Nelson's system will work. Since the core gelled about a year and a half ago, the Mavs put up gaudy offensive numbers and basically adhered to a slightly more structured version of Paul Westphal's LMU run-and-gun offense where the goal isn't to play defense, but rather outscore your opponents.

The evolution of the pivot in the Western Conference over the last few years is what makes this an untenable system, in my opinion. Tim Duncan in San Antonio, Shaquille O' Neal in L.A., and to a lesser extent Kevin Garnett in Minnesota, Yao Ming in Houston, and Amare Stoudemire in Phoenix all are big men who run the floor (some better than others), make a huge defensive difference, and who are offensive focal points for their teams.

Nelson's run-and-gun, point-forward/point-guard, no defense system is ill-suited for matching up against a defensively sound team with an end-to-end big man like Tim Duncan, ill-suited for matching up with an inside-outside threat with a dominant inside force like the Lakers, and ill-suited for a comparable run-and-gun team with scoring depth and inside-outside play like Sacramento. All these matchups place a premium on matchups in the middle and defense, two areas where Dallas is weak.

I still think the Mavs can make a good run and if they catch any of the Western teams with an inside-outside threat on a slump.

I just really wish we had a center here not nicknamed "The Mormon Mantis."

[lazarus]

28. Actually, they'd have been awesome in the east

until the birth of the new Pistons/Pacers axis of power. Those two play like WC teams.

What do you think of the realignment next year?

[LoneStarLiberal]

32. The New Divisions

The new-look NBA will have the following divisions:

Eastern Conference

Atlantic Division: Boston Celtics, New Jersey Nets, New York Knicks, Philadelphia 76ers, Toronto Raptors

My comment on the Atlantic Division: No matter if you stick the Raptors in this division or the Central, they're still bad. It will be interesting to see if they can make some hay from the strengthening of the Canadian dollar versus the U.S. dollar like some Canadian NHL franchises have done.

Central Division: Chicago Bulls, Cleveland Cavaliers, Detroit Pistons, Indiana Pacers, Milwaukee Bucks

My comment on the C Division: Definitely the toughest of the East thanks to Detroit and Indiana. I feel sorry for the Bulls, Cavs, and Bucks who will have four games each against Detroit and Indiana.

Southeast Division: Atlanta Hawks, Charlotte Bobcats, Miami Heat, Orlando Magic, Washington Wizards

My comment on the SE Division: Well, at least the Eastern Conference cellar will be easy to identify.

Western Conference

Southwest Division: Dallas Mavericks, Houston Rockets, Memphis Grizzlies, New Orleans Hornets, San Antonio Spurs

My comment on the Texas +2 Division: I think this one will be the toughest division in the entire NBA, even tougher than the Pacific because New Orleans will be the worst team (at least next season), and they're still serviceable on most nights unlike the hapless Warriors in the Pacific. Top to bottom this one's going to be good.

Northwest Division: Denver Nuggets, Minnesota Timberwolves, Portland Trail Blazers, Seattle SuperSonics, Utah Jazz

My comment on the NW Division: There's gonna be some long seasons for Seattle and Portland (and Utah because I think they're kind of a fluke this year in their performance).

Pacific Division: Golden State Warriors, Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Lakers, Phoenix Suns, Sacramento Kings

My comment on the Pacific Division: Lakers and Kings once more. Suns seem mired as a lower-tier team leaving the Warriors and Clippers fighting in the basement.

[lazarus]

34. Cool, someone else who knows about it

My comments:

Atlantic: Will suck again, for a long time. NJ will rack up a high 40-win season, picking off easy wins against the sad sacks in the rest of the division and conference. Will be interesting to see what Philly looks like without Iverson. Shame they couldn't fit Washington in here, because Memphis and New Orleans should, by all rights, be in the SE Division.

Central: Yup, Detroit and Indiana are the dominant forces here. Everyone else is playing catchup.

Southeast: Lord, this is sad. Miami has managed to make the playoffs (with a .471 record!), but none of the rest are playing over .319. Just pathetic. Charlotte could actually make the playoffs in the east next year, that's how bad this is.

Southwest: Terrifying. Unless Dallas collapses completely, the Texas roadtrip will remain the most feared three game roadtrip in the league, and Memphis is blessed with the presence of the Logo as GM. New Orleans, who knows? The biggest question marks here are two coaches: Tim Floyd in New Orleans, and the most overrated coach in the league, Van Gundy in Houston. He may ruin Yao before he's done.

Northwest: Poor Minnesota, they wanted in the East so bad, but instead got moved further west. Either way, they're guaranteed a playoff spot for a good long while.

Pacific: I think the Lakers are about done, and Sacramento has maybe a couple of years left. If I was the GM of the Lakers, I'd be burning up the phone lines, looking for trades for Shaq and Kobe both. Time to rebuild now, you don't want to get stuck like Kraus in Chicago.

Phoenix actually has a decent shot at Kobe in the off-season, pending the trial outcome. He'll be heading either to the Clippers or the Suns, if he leaves the Lake show. Whichever one wins automatically becomes the cream of the division.

The expansion draft is going to be wild. It's a week after the Finals, and teams are only able to protect 8 players. That's going to hurt really deep teams like Memphis that rely on going heavily into the bench rotation.

[smartass]

4. Why did they get rid of Van Exel? In the playoffs last year, he

was the only Mav that was worth a damn.

[LoneStarLiberal]

5. It Was Either Van Exel or Nash

I was sad to see him go, too. But there was simply no way that they were going to trade Steve Nash to Golden State which was the only way that they were going to get Jamison.

[Ishoutandscream]

6. Exactly. The slow start this year I believe was based on a lack

of chemistry. Too many moves toward the beginning of the season. The mad scientists (Nelson and Cuban) let their experiments get out of hand.

[ugarte]

7. The Mavericks have always been a finesse team

and finesse doesn't get it done in the playoffs. The only players I liked on that team last year were Van Exel, their best clutch player, and Najera, who plays like a man despite limited skills.

Now Van Exel is gone, and the two 'Antwans' together don't equal a dominant player. Come the playoffs, it's all about 'da paint', and Shawn Bradley ain't the answer.

[CrownPrinceBandar]

9. Screw that! Mavs rule.

The Mavs have owned the Western conference leaders, the Kings, 2 out of the last 3 times they squared up. They have also beaten the W. conference #2, T-Wolves, by the same record. I predict they will win 9 of their next 12 games. Then, we'll see what happens in the playoffs.



Go Steve!

[Ishoutandscream]

14. I like your optimism, but they need to ratch it up

if they're going anywhere. They need to start peaking and show consistency. That ain't happening right now.

[elfwitch]

10. Here here!! I say, the Spurs rule and the Mavs drool...

Of course I have a hometown bias.
And I hate living in Dallas.

[LoneStarLiberal]

11. Spurs Are Dreaming Of Jackson

I bet they wish they had Stephen Jackson back!

He's really turned it up in Atlanta...of course that's not too tough when there's only one other proven scorer on the roster instead of sharing the ball with Duncan, Parker, Ginobli, and others.

[GOPisEvil]

13. Uh, they offered Jackson a contract, but he and his agent

wanted to try being a free agent. They soon found out that the money that was offered by the Spurs was better than they could have gotten on the open market, but by then the Spurs had signed someone else. Ooops.

[lazarus]

17. Yeah, right

We need those turnovers and that pouting attitude. Sure.

Instead, we again have one of the leading 3 point shooters in the league (Hedo), one of the leading sixth men in the league (Manu), and the best defensive player in the league (Bowen). We need SJax for what, exactly? Our 2/3 slot is solid.

[LoneStarLiberal]

18. Duncan: Better Attitude, More Turnovers

They might need the following come playoff time:

Scoring, overall NBA rank:

7) Tim Duncan, SAS 57 37.5 22.9 8.8-17.9 .493 0.0-0.2 .182 5.2-8.7 .601 (the only Spur in the Top 50 in scoring)

37) S. Jackson, ATL 69 36.3 17.0 6.4-15.3 .421 1.7-5.1 .331 2.4-3.2 .756

66) Manu Ginobili, SAS 65 30.0 12.8 4.3-10.3 .420 1.1-3.2 .346 3.0-3.8 .794

Turnovers, overall NBA rank:

18) Elton Brand, LAC 57 38.9 160 2.8 3.5 1.19 0.35
Tim Duncan, SAS 57 37.5 160 2.8 3.6 1.09 0.33

23) S. Jackson, ATL 68 36.3 185 2.7 3.6 1.11 0.58

Hmmm...there's no doubt the Spurs are a hard core defensive team...probably one of the best in the NBA (if you take opponent turnovers as the key ingredient to such a calculation, they are ranked 11th in the NBA), but I still maintain having Jackson's scoring around, regardless of how he left, would be a very nice piece of offense to have.

[lazarus]

21. And I'm sure his stats would be exactly the same on the Spurs, right?

Or maybe, just maybe, his stats would be more in line with last year's stats?

BTW, last year, Jackson and Duncan were tied at turnovers per 48 minutes. Difference being, Jackson's always seemed to come at the worst time.

And there's a reason we let him go, you know. SJax is a decent player on a horrible team.

Duncan is the best player in the league. On the best team in the league. Pointing at stats in this sort of argument is really sort of useless.

[LoneStarLiberal]

24. Stats Are Never Useless!

Quite true that his stats would probably rest somewhere between where he is right now and where he was last year given the big difference in playing time.

I'd agree that Duncan, when healthy, is the undisputed MVP. I don't think that comparing stats is a useless exercise because they do allow us to look at something concrete in comparison versus just having one of those tautological "he sucks...no he doesn't...he sucks...no he doesn't" homer arguements.

Or it could just be that I don't think it's useless because I'm a research statistician!

[lazarus]

27. btw

I loves me some good stats, but in this case, they really don't measure the players' value properly, I think.

Speaking of stats, try this out for a stat I've come up with to measure team defense:

Instead of just measuring opponent's points, how about measuring the differential between the opponent's points scored and the opponent's average ppg?

For example, if the Spurs play the Kings, who are averaging 103.8 ppg, and hold them to 90, that would be a -13.8.

Although Sacramento scored 90 points it's much more impressive than Detroit holding a team averaging 84 points to 78, even though the 78 looks better on the box score, right?

We could do the same thing with opponent's field goal percentage, as well.

[LoneStarLiberal]

33. That's A Good Measurement Idea

I agree totally; team and individual comparisons need to have some sort of standardization to them in order to be more valid. Your example is a perfect point on that matter; holding Sacramento to 90 would be a more impressive defensive feat than holding a team that scores fewer points per game to a lower score that would be a smaller interval.

Outside of my research and my work I've got a pretty big interest in sports statistics and particularly in translating some of the better statistical relationships identified by sabermetrics in baseball to other sports, much like what you talk about in your example. The raw stats don't really tell us anything interesting, but putting those stats into standardized measures makes them quite illuminating.

[lazarus]

35. That's why I like

the */48 stat, like turnovers per 48 minutes. Although that can be misleading, as someone who plays very few minutes can come in with a quick burst of energy, really tear it up, and then sit.

Here's a neat site that does some wild breakdowns statistically that I'll bet you'll love:

http://www.82games.com/articles.htm

[smartass]

12. Steve Nash is not a prime time player. He usually gets manhandled

in the playoffs by bigger and stronger guards. The rest of the team is soft.

[Ishoutandscream]

15. Yes, I know about your hatred of Dallas

But just to let you know (if you didn't already), the Spurs were once based in, you guessed it, DALLAS!

San Antonio is a great city. If you hate Dallas so much, then get back down there!

[elfwitch]

22. I am trying to get out of Dallas as fast as I can...

And besides, the Spurs were a San Antonio team as long as I lived in San Antonio. They became the San Antonio Spurs in 1973. They belong to San Antonio.

I would love to live back in San Antonio, but my husband's chosen vocation will not allow that. As soon as we can we are heading to San Francisco.

Dallas is hyped way too much for what it is. Dallas thinks that it is as hip and cosmo as New York or LA and it isn't any better than San Antonio or Houston. It is all hype and no payoff. It is full of rich oil barons and energy thieves. It is full of Republicans.

The sooner I can knock the mud of Dallas off my shoes the better.

I know people think it is a great city, but I say to them.. First, have you lived anywhere else? and Second, what is so great about it (as compared to anyplace else)?

[Ishoutandscream]

31. Yes, I have. And no, I'm not a Republican

And you are probably aware of all of the transients that live in Dallas. Not too many locals like it was when I was growing up. My next door neighbor is from Arkansas, neighbor directly across the street from Illinois, and his next door neighbor from Wisconsin (flies his Packers flag on Sundays during the season). They love it here, and don't want to go back.

Solution - make the best of what you have and focus on the positives. If you don't, it will make you more miserable. All of my friends are die-hard republicans but for maybe one or two, but I just try to respect them as individuals and go from there.

[Champ]

26. Bold Prediction

BOLD PREDICTION
The two teams that make the NBA finals will be the Indiana Pacers and Denver Nuggets. Any Denver fans that know their team's history will be hoping for an 8th seed.

[catzies]

29. That is very funny, and welcome to DU!

:hi:

It's going to be Pacers/Lakers in the Finals, if David Stern can get Dick Bavetta to ref the 6th game in the WCF which will be Spurs/Lakers.

[Awsi Dooger]

36. I love the Mavs: weak, gutless but easy to handicap

They can blow to anyone on the road with that ole defense. I can take +6 or +9 at home against Dallas, plus the money line, and never surrender the lead.

This season I'm struggling in the NBA, barely at the break-even level, and the Mavs have been one of the few reliables. They can bust you by 15 at home yet lose to the same clowns on the road.

This year the offshore sportsbooks have finally caught up to my most treasured trend, betting the Utah Jazz "under" in the first half on the road. It was a 6 year joy, especially in the playoffs. I'm not sure even the most loyal Jazz fans were aware of the trend, scoring more than 10 fewer points in the first half on average than second half, while on the road, completely unlike any other NBA team.

This year I'm finally paying the price. A Jazz road game with a 184 total, for example, is put up at about 86 1/2 for the first half total, not 92 like any other team. Then they correctly adjust the second half total to about 97. Party over, but many thanks Stockton, Sloan and Co.