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WiseMen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-12-03 03:16 AM
Original message
DARK FORCES point to DEAN Electoral DISASTER
Edited on Fri Dec-12-03 03:37 AM by WiseMen
There is movement in the FORCE. But it is the DARK SIDE OF THE FORCE that is giving us Howard Dean. Dean cannot win the general election against George Bush.

The overarching reason is that the 2004 election will be fought over national security issues and Dean cannot pass the fundamental test of Credibility as Commander-In-Chief. Beyond this are two basic challenges of U.S. electoral politics for the democratic nominee: (1) success with the Independent Vote, and (2) an inroad (1 or 2 states) into the Southern Vote.

The Independent Vote.

What is the independent vote looking for? This is somewhat unpredictable since independents are more heavily motivated by personal factors as opposed to party or ideological loyalty. They are however a few generalities from past elections that suggest that in a nationwide Dean vs. Bush match-up Dean would loose the independent vote. Key issues:

Independents (Indys) are heavily influence by the existing dynamics in the economy. If the economy continues to rebound the Indy will be reluctant to vote for change. If the Irac War continues to go badly the Indy will be willing to consider a new Commander-In-Chief. But, if national security is the Indy issue Dean’s lack of credentials will be devastating because the Indy will seek an OBJECTIVE (not partisan) critique of Dean.

The independent vote tends to be entrepreneurial and pro-business. Every Indy thinks he/she could become a big-wig next year. Dean’s anti-corporate rhetoric will backfire among Indys in the general election.

The independent vote tends to be anti-labor union. A large majority of the Independent vote supports “right-to-work.” Dean’s recent embrace of closed-shop labor union policy will be used by the Rove machine to pry away the Indy vote.

The independent vote tends to a candidate who is perceive to be bi-partisan and able to work across party lines to develop national consensus. The very anger that Dean uses to mobilize the Democratic base can be expected to be used to paint him as totally unacceptable to independents.

The independent vote is attracted to “star quality.” The importance of "GRAVITAS", being a "LEADER," and looking "PRESIDENTIAL," all reflect factors that move the indy voter. Dean seems to score high on "star quality" but the shine may wear off under the comming Republican barage.


The Southern Vote.

A little recent history.
Clinton/Gore (2 sons of the South) won 5 Southern States against Bush Senior who was viewed as a North-Easterner
Gore/Lieberman won 0 (not counting FL) Southern States against Bush Junior who was viewed as a Texan.

John Kennedy did well in the South, in part, because he was perceived as a dashing war hero.

A little about culture.
The reality is the Southern voter likes a candidate with a “strong military” image, as Zel Miller would say they “like a guy with a little grit in his craw.”

White or Black, the Southern voter seems to like their candidates tall, tough and straight-shooting. Dukakis blew it because he didn’t “look right” in a tank. Does anyone really believe that Dr. Dean will fare better after his image has been pummeled by the Karl Rove machine (sad, but that’s the way it is).

Bill Clinton beat George Bush in 1992 with a little help from Ross Perot. I spent some time with Bill Clinton. He was a brilliant policy wonk and incredibly good on the campaign trail. His face-to-face persuasive ability was incredible. Howard Dean is no Bill Clinton.

Conclusion:

The stylized facts of U.S. electoral politics suggests that Howard Dean CANNOT WIN in 2004. Yet, the progressives are in deep, deep denial..

OBI-WAN: Where are you when we need you?




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unfrigginreal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-12-03 03:28 AM
Response to Original message
1. So, to sum it up
we need a:

Pro-Corporate
Anti-union
Southerner

Hmmm...I thought that's what we have now?
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AnnitaR Donating Member (958 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-12-03 03:45 AM
Response to Reply #1
4. Nope. We need someone who can
pull the Ind. voters

and

win in the South. (I'm from TN and I know Dean will not carry this state.)

I just don't think Dean can pull enough votes from these two groups. It's nothing personal against him, his campaign, or his supporters. We have to have those two groups to beat Bush. I wish we didn't have to depend on those two groups to win, but we have to face it, we do.
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papau Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-12-03 01:02 PM
Response to Reply #4
21. Lightman (Conn) says Dean polls against Bush same as others - and that
Ed Kilgore, policy director for the Democratic Leadership Council, notes that to win: a candidate has to make a positive, mainstream case for replacing the president, not just criticize him; show strength on national security issues, something Democrats in the 1970s and 1980s were accused of not doing, and talk to swing voters about some of those clearly moderate issues such as faith and curbing violence and sex in the entertainment industry.

After reading the Article, my take away is that while I like the electibility of Kerry and Clark better, Dean has no real problem with electibility.




http://www.ctnow.com/news/custom/topnews/hc-electable1212.artdec12,1,2141181,print.story?coll=hc-headlines-topnews

Democrats' Quandary: Is Dean Electable?
Question: Can He Beat Bush?




By DAVID LIGHTMAN
Washington Bureau Chief

December 12 2003

PORTSMOUTH, N.H. -- The buzz is so loud it sounds like a swarm of Democratic locusts hovering over the political world saying, over and over, "Howard Dean can't win."<snip>

Yet polls show that Dean is no weaker than any other major Democrat. The Quinnipiac Poll taken Dec. 4 to 8 found Bush beats Dean 51 to 40 percentage points, roughly the same showing as Bush against Joe Lieberman, Wesley Clark and John Kerry. Dick Gephardt and John Edwards do slightly worse.<snip>

Even if Dean keeps swimming toward the mainstream, he faces the inevitable stature gap, always a hurdle for a presidential challenger.

Bush can fly to Iraq to have Thanksgiving with the troops and it's seen as the compassionate act of the commander-in-chief. A Dean visit to Iraq would probably be painted as an effort to show he has a grasp of military policy.<snip>


Dean's most important quality, though, is that if he's the nominee, and the contest is decided in late winter, he'll be one-on-one with Bush for eight months prior to the election. That gives him plenty of time to establish himself as a credible alternative, said Amy Isaacs, national director of Americans for Democratic Action.<snip>

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WiseMen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-12-03 01:49 PM
Response to Reply #21
24. THAT'S NOT THE POINT -- see below "HOW DEAN WINS"

Note: that in comment lower in this thread I agree that all the candidates will have a challenge.

But, the fundamental of electoral dynamics are squarely against Dean

I don't belive any amount of money can overcome these fundamentals by November. I would love to see how.
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polpilot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-12-03 02:05 PM
Response to Reply #24
25. Dean CAN'T win. He has too many supporters and too many votes...
too much...too many endorsements...can't happen. He's TOO POPULAR and TOO STRONG...can't happen. He'll get too many votes and be disqualified...and he's NOT Bush-like or Bush X-tra Lite...can't happen...plus the DLC and other old, career politicos don't like him...

Dean '04...Can't Happen.
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RetroLounge Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-12-03 08:42 PM
Response to Reply #25
34. Don't forget too much money
He's a Damn Good Fund Raiser, so he can't win...
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Sensitivity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-13-03 02:17 AM
Response to Reply #34
38. I AM REALLY WORRIED THAT MONEY WONT HELP VS BUSH
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Sensitivity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-12-03 11:43 AM
Response to Reply #1
16. DEAN CAN GIVE THE PEOPLE WHAT THEY WANT. POWER!
Edited on Fri Dec-12-03 11:50 AM by Sensitivity
IF THE INDEPENDENTS WANT A ROCK STAR --- WE HAVE THE STAR:

DEAN! DEAN! DEAN!

I think our guy know how to play the game and win elections better than any of the current candidates. HAVEN'T THE WISE MEN SEEN THE POLLS.

He is now being attacked in the Boston Globe for being two conservative!!!

"But during Dean's 11 years as Vermont governor, he enacted tax breaks that attracted to the state a "Who's Who" of corporate America.."

Article At:

http://www.boston.com/news/politics/president/dean/articles/2003/12/12/for_dean_captive_insurance_a_vt_boon/
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Zomby Woof Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-12-03 11:46 PM
Response to Reply #16
37. you changed my mind
I have no choice but to go with Dean.
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Raya Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-13-03 03:02 AM
Response to Reply #1
41. PUNDITS ANALYZE DEAN'S CHANCES AGAINST BUSH
Edited on Wed Dec-17-03 11:10 AM by Skinner

THESE “PUNDITS” ARE BEING VERY GENEROUS TO DEAN.

They are not saying anything about how phony his campaign has
been. That is what bother me most. I guess that doesn't matter to "pundits."

It’s very sad




Pundits analyze Dean's chances against Bush

December 13, 2003

By Claude R. Marx

VERMONT PRESS BUREAU

MANCHESTER, N.H. - Howard Dean's extensive organization and disciplined message should help him in the early delegate-selection contests but may not be enough to help him overcome the obstacles needed to win the general election, several pollsters, scholars, and journalists said Friday.

"He has the most sophisticated means of voter identification and contact here since President Ford in 1976,'' said pollster Dick Bennett at a conference on the upcoming presidential election on the campus of St. Anselm College. He also noted "... much of Dean's strength is based on the weakness of the other eight candidates,''

ABC News Political Director Mark Halperin said Dean's own weaknesses, such as his support for liberal views on cultural issues, his promise to raise taxes and his unwillingness to discuss his religious values, could doom him in the fall and render his early advantages meaningless.

"Men and rural voters care about faith and religion. And Dean's approach puts him at a disadvantage, though most of other Democratic candidates aren't much better,'' he noted.

EDITED BY ADMIN: COPYRIGHT

http://timesargus.nybor.com/Story/75945.html


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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-12-03 03:32 AM
Response to Original message
2. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
maxr4clark Donating Member (639 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-12-03 04:03 AM
Response to Reply #2
7. I would love to agree with you

...but I just don't have that rosy a view. I am not a Repub, I vote for the best Democrat I can find, no other parties considered. I don't want to lose 4 years to B*sh by being asleep at the wheel; that's why I'm on this blog, trying to get us the best candidate to beat B*sh.

The polls show that B*sh is vulnerable, but the B*sh machine has only been stockpiling money so far. When it starts churning out its bile, B*sh will gain votes. Sick, but true. The polls show essentially a tie for any Dem but Dean against B*sh. These polls are what worry people like me, what makes it hard for people like me to be as optimistic as people like you about Dean. When I look at Dean v. Bush, I don't see a slam dunk for Dean, I see a heartbreaking narrow miss. I want those poll voters that pick any Dem but Dean against Bush on our side. If you're Anybody But Bush, you should too.

Gore had everything going for him in 2000. He lost, 5-4. Please please please don't assume 2004 will be a cakewalk.
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maxr4clark Donating Member (639 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-12-03 04:07 AM
Response to Reply #7
8. Where did he go?

Back to Roveland, I guess. Thanks, Moderator.
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adadem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-12-03 04:14 AM
Response to Reply #7
11. Agreed
"I see a heartbreaking narrow miss".
Actually, I belive it would be a giant miss.

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Meshuga Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-12-03 11:59 AM
Response to Reply #7
18. Couldn't agree more...
I will support the best democrat and the one who can beat Bush. I fear Dean will lose against Bush for the reasons stated in this thread. We can't afford to have Bush for 4 more years.
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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-12-03 03:32 AM
Response to Original message
3. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
Old and In the Way Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-12-03 03:48 AM
Response to Original message
5. Nah, thanks for trying, though!
Anyone of our candidates will win. It matters not. Running against fascist, unelected neo-criminals has a tendency to do that.

And, more bad news for you. As the general election season starts, watch how we are energized like you have never seen. We'll take back the Senate and quite possibly the House.

Then watch the fun begin! ;-)
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maxr4clark Donating Member (639 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-12-03 04:09 AM
Response to Reply #5
9. I thought that in 2000, but

Gore lost, 5-4. Please don't misunderestimate the power of the Dark Side. We must complete our training, oh Old and In the Way!
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JackSwift Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-12-03 04:24 AM
Response to Reply #9
14. Your training is complete
Go out and register voters, get out the vote and contribute the maximum amount to whomever is the putative nominee after the big primary shake-outs.
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cigarstore Donating Member (105 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-12-03 04:00 AM
Response to Original message
6. Howard Brush Dean will not get the nomination
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maxr4clark Donating Member (639 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-12-03 04:11 AM
Response to Reply #6
10. Neither will Kucinich
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adadem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-12-03 04:15 AM
Response to Reply #6
12. see post 9
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Hope4 Donating Member (132 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-12-03 01:09 PM
Response to Reply #6
22. Why?
I am interested to know why?

My concern is clark and why he is even with us. He was on the bush team, not a dem and he would be eaten alive by the generals that american love about his being fired.

How come we do not stick with dems and have to go out side.

I think one thing all of you should think on is the clintons. They know a lot more of what is going on and Bill gets briefings. You do not see them going against the war, terrorism and the patriot act like many of us. Hillary is a hawk for the war.

Interesting.
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maxr4clark Donating Member (639 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-12-03 02:37 PM
Response to Reply #22
26. Clark is a Dem

but are you? Clinton conspiracy theories are neocon territory.

As for Dean, I don't know why he wouldn't get the nom. All of the polls show him as the front-runner; even Karl Rove wants him as the nom. I don't want him as the nom because I don't think he plays well against B*sh. If Dean gets the nom, he'll be my man; not before.
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JackSwift Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-12-03 04:23 AM
Response to Original message
13. Any one of the candidates is going to cream Bush in Nov 2004
with the electorate. The question is will there be James Baker style fixing for GWBush? I think the answer is that attempts will be made because they must retain power to travel the globe with diplomatic immunity. Without being in power and having diplomatic immunity, most of the Junta would face war crimes charges upon entering any European country.

As far as beating Bush with any of our nine, that is simple: each and every one of us must contribute the same maximum amount that the rich folks have, no matter how much it hurts. We must register likely voters from the end of January until October, and we must make sure everybody makes it to the polls. All of us must do that, and we must recruit as many others as possible. If we do that, we will win. If we do not, we will lose. It is entirely up to us.
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WiseMen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-12-03 01:41 PM
Response to Reply #13
23. PLEASE! PLEASE! A HONEST analysis of HOW DEAN WINS
Edited on Fri Dec-12-03 01:43 PM by WiseMen
My analysis portends a difficult challenge in 04 to all the major candidates, except perhaps the southern general, Wesley Clark. I am not saying beating Bush will be a cakewalk for any Democrat.

I believe a 5-year grass roots effort bring to about fundamental ideological change in the electorate could bear fruit if there is enormous commitment behind it.

The “IMAGINE AMERICA” movement which raises money for Kucinich, and before that Jerry Brown’s “WE THE PEOPLE,” shares these goals.

This is precisely what Al Gore aims at with his plan for a new “LIBERAL MEDIA NETWORK,” and this is behind his involvement with MoveOn.org and support for the Dean effort.

The danger is that a Democratic disaster next November will leave disillusionment and a lack of fighting spirit.

I would really love to see a persuasive argument on how the Dark Forces, that currently prevail in the American electorate, can be overcome between now and November.

A Luta Continua!
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mikehiggins Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-12-03 11:41 PM
Response to Reply #23
36. Not from this camper
I have no doubt that Dean will be defeated by George Bush and largely for the reasons you have posted.

Unseating an incumbent President in a time of war is unheard of and doing it with a regular Democrat talking the same talk that lost us the House and the Senate is not going to do it.

Our only shot is Clark, and that is a long shot in the real world of elections. The DU's who fantasize that Bush is going to be rolled over by a bunch of folks chanting "you have the power" should know better. Most of us were around for a whole bunch of elections and remember all the convictions and dedication that led nowhere against Nixon and Reagan and Bush and now Bush II.

If we can't appeal to a wide range of voters we can't win. This nonsense about "mobilizing the base" and the rest of that poll and focus group driven crap doesn't mean a thing. Again, we can't beat somebody with nobody and a Dean/Bush race is a replay of all those other races that left us with a GOP House and Senate.

Why is that so hard for these folks to understand? Wishes don't make things so.

Clark is not a sure bet, he's only our best bet.
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Greyhawk Donating Member (46 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-26-03 02:18 PM
Response to Reply #36
60. Dean's latest attempt to "triangulate"
Ok, but if Dean can woo away some progressive, albeit religious Southern votes with some expression of faith (see http://www.washtimes.com/national/20031225-110916-8169r.htm ), then he might be able to win based on economics on the ground, not the news versions of how well the economy is doing...

Dean can win if he can convince voters in Louisiana, Florida and Missouri that he will be more conservative fiscally and is not "scary"... Those two issues are some of the areas where Bush is vulnerable.
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mhr Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-12-03 04:37 AM
Response to Original message
15. So Says You WiseMen, Who Elected You God?
At DU everyone's an expert.

You have had your say now move along!
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WiseMen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-16-03 09:28 PM
Response to Reply #15
46. You Are Still not interested in Straight-Talk. Dean Need a Miracle

Unfortunately, it is black magic at work -- For Bush.
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9119495 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-17-03 11:15 AM
Response to Reply #46
49. (Un) Wise-man, your initial assertions are flawed
I understand your concern but there are a few problems with your analysis. Dean is pro-entrepenuer. He will put small businesses against corporations so that will inspire independents. Other than that, I think its too early to predict where they will go. What about America's love of an underdog?--"the little guy from Vermont"

Regarding the elecotral map, the South may not matter if the West and Ohio are picked up. Every election is different. Gore lost the last one 5-4, not due to the South. Pro-war, faith-loving southerners ain't jumpin ship from Bush to Clark anyway--unless Clark starts to talk like Dean about getting them to vote on their ed., health, and job interests--but he hasn't done that yet.

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ProfessorPlum Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-12-03 11:57 AM
Response to Original message
17. Fear is the mind-killer.
Edited on Fri Dec-12-03 12:02 PM by ProfessorPlum
Fear is the little death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path. Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain. (Frank Herbert)


Don't be such a whining ninny, dude. Have you seen the way Dean fights? He has energy. He has hustle, and guts, and focus. He is not acting the way the other Democrats, who have been paralyzed with fear and run terrible, mewling campaigns, act. He's going to mop the floor up with Shrub.

Edit: I just read this again, and it comes across like I'm talking about Dean's 8 opponents in the above paragraph. I'm not - I was thinking about Dukakis and Gore to a certain extent in 2000.
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Logansquare Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-13-03 02:33 PM
Response to Reply #17
45. I love the Herbert quote, Prof. Plum n/t
.
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killbotfactory Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-12-03 12:50 PM
Response to Original message
19. Chronic losers call Dean a loser
News at 11
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polpilot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-12-03 06:18 PM
Response to Reply #19
29. You're right. It's the 'forever doomed' who are so negative in the face
of a true statesman like Dean. They've lost hope and sabotage their own efforts...Rove fear...repub operatives fear...controversy fear...fear of conflict within the party...fear...fear...fear

Dean '04...
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Oreegone Donating Member (726 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-12-03 12:54 PM
Response to Original message
20. Republicans are right about one thing
There are some truly Whimpy Democratics....have some balls....quit with the sky is falling already...just cause Karl Rove and his buddies said so and put it in print don't make it so. Even if they made sure its on DU. You think everyone who comes here supports the liberal mindset?

Ignore the fear tactics and get to work theres a freakin election to win, quit twisting your hands and put some flyers in them and and knock on the door, put the pedal to the metal baby.:wtf:
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lastliberalintexas Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-12-03 03:54 PM
Response to Original message
27. Some "analysis" there
Funny how the polls aren't backing you up right now.

Independents give 39% of their support to Dean, with Kerry, Lieberman, and Clark in a three-way tie for 2nd at 9%.
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=763


Dean is the favorite of both Democrats (27%) and Independents (21%)who intend to vote in Iowa’s primary.
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=762


Deans leads in VA poll
Virginia will hold a Democratic presidential primary Feb. 10. Some 308 of the poll’s participants said they are likely to cast ballots in the contest.

They expressed the following preference: Howard Dean, 21 percent; Joseph Lieberman, 13 percent; Clark, 11 percent; Richard Gephardt, 8 percent; John Kerry, 7 percent; Al Sharpton, 6 percent; John Edwards, 5 percent; Dennis Kucinich, 1 percent; Carol Moseley Braun, 0 percent. Twenty-eight percent were undecided.

The survey of 308 likely voters in the Democratic primary has a margin of error of plus or minus 6 percentage points.

http://home.hamptonroads.com/stories/story.cfm?story=63387&ran=220195


New Poll: Dean in the lead in Texas.
Howard Dean- 16
Clark- 14
Lieberman- 14

Conducted by the Scripps Research Center, the poll randomly surveyed 1,000 Texans between Nov. 14 and Dec. 6; 38 percent of the respondents said they are Republicans, 25 percent said they are Democrats and 23 percent identified themselves as independents. The remainder did not give a party affiliation

The margin of error was plus or minus 3 percentage points and was slightly larger for subgroups.

The new poll placed President Bush's job approval rating at 58 percent, down from 71 percent in the spring and 65 percent in the summer.

http://www.dfw.com/mld/startelegram/news/local/7458001.htm

And I don't have the cite for it, but I've seen that he also leads in Maryland, and most polls show him in 2nd place in South Carolina.

But you go on thinking that Dean (or any of our candidates) would have trouble against Shrub if that makes you happy. Personally, I can't wait for our Dem president to be sworn in on 1/20/05. While I prefer it to be Dean, I'll be happy with any of them.
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Padraig18 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-12-03 05:58 PM
Response to Reply #27
28. Don't use facts to refute his argument.
It's like teaching a pig to sing: it wastes your time and it annoys the pig.
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Le Taz Hot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-13-03 09:16 AM
Response to Reply #28
43. LOL!
I had to laugh. Do you know how long I've been using that line about arguing with dittotrolls and now, the sky-is-falling "Democrats?"

Good timing, Padraig.
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maxr4clark Donating Member (639 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-12-03 06:29 PM
Response to Reply #27
30. Zogby polls

Dean is okay with me, and I agree he is leading in most of the polls. The buzz on the Clark blog, though, is that Zogby polls are uncharacteristically favorable to Dean.
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RUMMYisFROSTED Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-12-03 06:51 PM
Response to Original message
31. Last I heard, Dean couldn't win New Hampshire in Kerry's backyard.
Looks like he might.

Before that it was "Geppy will own Iowa."
He might not even be renting it.



And the fact of the matter is that Dean can win without a single state in the South. AZ, IN, OH, NH or FL* flipping does the trick.

http://www.multied.com/elections/2000map.html


*Doesn't need to be flipped, just watched very closely!
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polpilot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-12-03 07:01 PM
Response to Reply #31
32. Kerry's pacing & can take out Dean anytime he wants to. He's god in NH.
BCCI, NDWFFRT, Viet Vamps, Koo Foo Maw, Baa Waa!! Kerry rules!!

Dean '04...
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deutsey Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-12-03 08:24 PM
Response to Original message
33. I think Obi-Wan would've said
you must stop wringing your hands so much, take your stand against the Dark Side and trust in the Force.

Man, if all the pilots in the X-wings or Y-wings were all like you, the Rebellion would be doomed. Here's hoping you stay grounded.
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Raya Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-12-03 11:29 PM
Response to Reply #33
35. DEAN is with the DARK SIDE. We have been DUPED!

I, for one, have had it with Dean since revelations of his recored have come out.

I would do anything to topple the *6%$&!! in the Whitehouse, if we could rally around a leader we could respect.

DEAN IS A TOTAL PHONY. EVEN MORE THAT BUSH.

It sickens me to see my friend pretend otherwise.
This politics-as-usual sh*%%%3 is not what I signed up for.

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deutsey Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-13-03 10:32 AM
Response to Reply #35
44. ???
I have no idea what you're talking about, either about the "revelations" or when you say it sickens you see your friend pretend Dean is not a phony.

Is this post meant for me? I have no idea who you are.

Welcome to DU, though.

:shrug:

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mchaudry Donating Member (15 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-13-03 02:43 AM
Response to Original message
39. It will take Republicans and Independants to save the Dems from themselves
I find it quit interesting that many of my independant and republican friends feel democrats are too stupid to win this election. Many are now saying they will have to cross party lines and vote for Clark in the primaries. He is the only Dem candidate they feel can win. I thought it a shame that they felt we were to angry and stupid to win and that they will have to get involved so that they will have a democrat they can vote for to get GW out of office.
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mchaudry Donating Member (15 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-13-03 02:46 AM
Response to Reply #39
40. www.ex-deaniacsforclark.com
i guess some folks are starting to see through logic as opposed to rage.
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MercutioATC Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-13-03 05:51 AM
Response to Original message
42. My thoughts on usernames and validity of posts...
If somebody intends to be a part of a community, they choose a screenname that both describes them and will be accepted in the group.

Screennames like "Wisemen" (compounded with low post counts) run counter to this theory.

...just an observation.


If you want substance from this post, I'll counter that:

1) Independants (who, I believe, tend to be middle-income earners for the most part) will gladly trade their pittance in Federal tax benefits (and the resulting increase in state and local tax increases) for national health care and better schools.

2) Your analysis of the "southern vote" seems to reduce the southern vote to anybody who's tall and has a war record (and, you quote Zell Miller...spelling his name incorrectly).

Is this the extent of your arsenal? Do you have an alternative strategy? If you're truly interested in the process, I'm sure you'd be hapy to enlighten me....
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Aloha_Texan Donating Member (22 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-16-03 10:19 PM
Response to Reply #42
47. Rumors of Deans demise are greatly egagerated.
If people have a different opinion on who the best Beat-Bush candidate is, that perfectly cool but I gotsta clear up the "Karl rove wants to run against Dean" rumors. Originally back in the day, (3 months ago give or take), RNC strategists when asked which candidate they feared the most would say things "we'd love to run against Dean" and "I'm not worried about anyone but Gephardt could give us a head-ache". So imagine my surprise when Bush and the repubs started SPENDING money early to launch anti-dean ads in Iowa. Then Ed gilespie goes to vermont and gives a speech condemning all dems but only mentions Dean by name. So if you beleive the old karl rove line, that republicans want to run against Dean and fear the gephardt machine, you have to admit the repubs are going about this in the most counter-intuitive way.
I tend not to beleive RNC strategists and instead beleive in an alternative theory- Dean isnt Mcgovern, he's Muskie. You see when nixon was sizing up his re-election possibilities, he came to the conclusion that he could beat Mcgovern but couldnt beat Muskie. So what did he do ? He set up a whole dirty tricks campaign against Muskie during the Dem primaries, includeing among other this Anti-Muskie television spots in important primary states. This pattern seems to be repeating itself again. First Karl rove is claiming Dean would be his favorate opponent and when that didnt scare Dean's supporters off he opens up the war chest and starts attacking Dean in primarry states where the race is neck and neck. Rove's manipulative mouth may say "bring on Dean" but his actions paint a very different picture.

- Aloha Texan
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WiseMen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-17-03 09:48 AM
Response to Reply #47
48. Could you name the reputable political anaysts who give Dean Good Odds
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RUMMYisFROSTED Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-17-03 11:55 AM
Response to Reply #48
50. Well, I can give you a shitload who thought he was going nowhere
last year.

Perhaps that answers your question?
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Aloha_Texan Donating Member (22 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-17-03 12:25 PM
Response to Reply #48
51. That depends on what the definition of "political analyst" is.
Well Donna Brazille has been talking Dean up. I've seen Peter Fenn on CNN giving him bad odds, but you gotta keep in mind that he's Leiberman's pollster. Thats not really uncommon though. Show me a "political analyst" that doesnt have a stake in some campaign and I'll show you a person who isnt being forthcoming. Hell Joe Trippi obviously thinks Dean's odds are good and he would definately fall under the definition of "political analyst".

Then you got the network analysts. CNN is off and on Dean, the network is less then consistant. FOX analysts are presenting a grim outcome of a Bush-Dean race. The thing is FOX and the Daily show are very simular- they are both the fake news.

Get back to me when you can explain why Rove and his boys are taking aim at Dean more so then anyone else.

- Aloha Texan
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Raya Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-17-03 01:58 PM
Response to Reply #51
52. Repubs Already assume Dean is IN. They will start softerning him up Now.

Repubs will soften up Dean during the primaries when Dems and Indys are paying attention.
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polpilot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-21-03 11:42 AM
Response to Reply #52
59. Shrub can consult Kerry/Gep/Lib camps on most effective strategies.
Hee! hee!

Dean '04...
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Nicholas_J Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-17-03 02:01 PM
Response to Original message
53. The problem with Dean
Is that he is doing to the democratic party, what Bush is doing to
the nations he has attracted a bunch of new young people to the party, who listen to everything he says as if it is gospel truth, because of "fire in the belly" he appeals to their "anger about the system" or other such excuses, out of utter naivity, for the mmost part about the nature of politics.

And rule 1 in this is that politicians, especially those who are not Washington Insiders, will lie to you whenever they want to get elected. Since Dean is telling them what they want to hear about the corruption in the existing system, they beleive that somehow Dean is going to correct that, when Deans record as governor is fairly good proof of the fact that Dean is no differnt from any of the politics as usual crowd that he is attacking. Dean has taken money from large corporations and done their bidding as other politicians have, and this sort of politics is far more prevelent at smaller government levels than it is at the national level, where the media is a bit more cautious at scrutinizing the activities of Congress.

One Key fact is that as Governor, more money came to his campign fund from corporate sources outside of Vermont, than it did from private individuals inside Vermont and Corporate interests that were wholly own Vermont Corporations. Dean got 65 percent of all of his campaighn finance from outside of his state, and many of his decisions about brining corporations into Vermont or allowing those that were in Vermont to greatly expand their activities.

To point, when it is even proven that Dean allowed corporations as like Enron, to use his state as a tax haven, his supporters tend to jump to the defense of Enron. That is a serious problem.

A WSJ/NBC poll showed that the day before the capture of Saddam Hussein, the democratic Frontrunner, Dean, if asked the question "if the election was held today, who would you vote for, Dean recieved 39 percent to Bush's 50 percent. They decided to do the poll against as soon as the news that Saddam had been captured, and initially, while while thew polls showed little increase in support of Bush, only increasing from 50 to 52 percent, the capture of Saddam was seen to have had a more drastic effect on support for Dean who droppoed from 39 percent to 31 percent in a matter of hours between these polls. Later in the day, Dean remanined stagnant at 31 percent, while Bush's support rose to 58 percent only a few hours later.

One of the key indications of the fact that no matter what, Dean will not beat Bush is that in earlier polls, when other candidates were either frontrunners or closer to being frontrunners, these Democrats showed in polls to be far closer to beating Bush in polls than Dean has ever reached. In September October, Kerry was seen to come within anc eight point margin of Bush, in a poll that had a nine point margin of error. Other Polls placed Kerry or Clark withing close striking range of beating Bush.

AS Dean has become the front runner, Dean has become the candidates said to be most able to beat Bush, but the margin is drastic, with Dean always staying below the 40 percent mark when compared to Bush who has except for a few occasions always remained in the 50 percent area or above. Clear sign that the Democrats frontrunner is someone who has a smaller chance of beating Bush.

Dean has diovided the party as much as Bush has divided the country, and most of Dean support comes from new people who may be fired up, but have little or no awareness of the political proccess and have based their love of Dean on the issue of his personality, and that he says thiungs they like to hear. The very worse and mosty dangerous way to select a candidate. Deans record as Governor contains little to recommend him as a democratic, progressive, liberal, or even moderate candidate. Most of his fiscal policy and decisions come striaght out of the Republican/Conservative parties economic policy handbbooks, which is why the Libertarian/Conservative Cato Institute gave him the highest marks any Democrat ever recieved from this Neo-Con think tank. Until 1998, when the Vermont Supreme Court forced Dean to pass a progressive, two tiered property tax that Dean himself did not support. The traidional flat propoerty tax was the one Dean supported, but the Vermont Supreme Court declared that unconstitutional under the Vermont Constitution.

While Dean passed both Civil Unions and this Progressive Property Tax, Dean did so under co-ersion, and there is no history of this Governor ever actively supporting any liberal, or progressive platform, whetther fiscal or social. Ever. He has always stuck to the typical democratic party stump speeches about civil rights for all citizens, and womens rights, and right to choose, but as governor, he was rather inactive about putting talk into action, His support wasalways from the sidelines and he never took an active role in leading other elected officials by demanding legisltion that would correct inequities. rather Dean was usually quite active in opposing legislation of a progressive nature , socially, when he had the opportunity to support it.


Dean oppposed legislation that would allow the use of methadone treatment in the state. For years he refused, until the protests outside of his office grew to such great proportion that Dean eventually relented and allowed clinics to exist in the state.

same thing with Medical Marijuana, which had more popularity than the methadone laws. but this occured late in Dean tenure, so pressure never resulted in his relenting.

Again protests against his cuts to programs to assist the elderly were called small by Dean, but 300 people in a state with 600,000 people is just as large in that state, as the million or so protestors who protested against war with Iraq last march were as a comparative part of the American Population of 280 million.


Deans statement that there far larger interest groups that two hundre people protesting:


Seniors and advocates for the poor rallied to oppose the cuts, and
Vermont Legal Aid filed suit against the Dean administration. Dean
relented on $963,000 of the cuts in November.

Headline: "Hundreds Turn Out to Protest State Cuts In Medicaid
Program"

"A grassroots coalition of elderly and disabled Vermonters is
turning up the volume in its battle with Gov. Howard Dean over his
plan to cut $1.2 million in Medicaid benefits... nearly 300 people
packed a gymnasium at the State Office Complex to oppose the cuts."

"Michael Sirotkin, a lobbyist who has represented the interests of
the Coalition of Vermont Elders for 12 years... 'I have never
seen, in the history of the Vermont Legislature for as long as I
have been there, a more horrific cut than the one that is being
proposed today."


Howard Dean on those protesting his cuts: "There are interest groups
that are far larger than 200 people. These people were put on a bus
by the advocates."

Are exactly of the same nature as Bush's calling the million American protesters in the U.S. against the Iraq War "A FOCUS GROUP"

The millions who did protest represented a far larger group in both cases than merely those who showed up to protest.



Dean himself divided the Democratic Party as Governor of Vermont:

"Certainly the Democratic caucus was never 100 percent behind him and where there were differences, it was around how progressive or how moderate he was," Chard said.

Rivers blames Dean for helping a third political party to flourish in Vermont that many say siphons votes from Democrats. "The Progressive Party gained some momentum during his years as governor because he was so conservative," Rivers said, although she said she still may support Dean for president

http://premium1.fosters.com/2003/news/may_03/may_19/news/reg_vt0519a.asp

In fact Dean so divided the Democratic Party so much in Vermont that the Vermont Progressive Party is the single most powerful third party in the state, and half of the elected third party state legislators in the United States are in Vermont, representing the Progressive Party.

This is happening again at the national level. Dean is dividing those who have been involved in politic for years, and have a carefully studied opinion of the disconnect between Dean's record as Governor, and Dean statements about what he will do as president.

Those of us who have ben around politics for a long time know full well that candidates will say many things they have no intention of following though on if elected. Dena has a very, very, long record of doing exactly that, but is is less visible than the records of other the other candidates who are regularly goven percentage ratings by conservative and liberal thhink tanks.

Those of us who cherish liberal and progressive politics are ever more taking the point that5 it may be better to lose a battle in 2004, to keep the contagion of fiscal conservatism out of our party, use the years between 2004 and 2008 to purge the party of all conservative elements, and come back with a real progressive plan in the war against conservatism and republicans in 2008, and be able to win the war, at the cost of losing this battle.



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Aloha_Texan Donating Member (22 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-17-03 04:47 PM
Response to Reply #53
54. Rebutting for Dean
First off I dont buy the assumption that republicans have already concluded that Dean is in and have just started to pre-emptively attack the inevitable nominate. The Democrats havent even started voting yet, and this race is a coin-flip. Karl rove is too good to have already crowned Dean king, so his money adds attacking Dean in Iowa are there to produce a result favorable to Bush.

Second, It's always better to be a govenor running for prez then a "washington insider" running for prez. Kerry's insider status is a huge liability going into the race against Bush. Bob Dole can attest to that. I also dont understand why bringing new people to the party should be considered a divisive action. New people=more dem votes. Seriously if you want to talk about who's dividing the democratic party we can talk about the most recent of Kerry's attacks, that wasn't quite kept anomiously enough.

As to the whole "Dean is in bed with corporate america" thing, I'm not too worried about that either. His record fundraising is small donations from random people throughout the country. Bush wont be able to portray Dean as the Enron candidate, only Kerry has such a luxory. I havent read of the tax loop hole you speak of but I'll take your word for it. However Kerry's IWR vote trumps this, in my opinion. It is interesting that one as anti-corporate as you would embrace the DLC's candidate.

On the topic of the war, I'm less then shocked that Dean's numbers dipped during the great "we got him" media frenzy. So at this exact moment Kerry would be stronger to beat Bush, if the race was tomorrow. However we as democrats need to make a guess about how things are going to play out. If you guess that we will find legitimate WMD's and that the insurgency will will calm down now that saddams been captured, then you are right: Kerry is a stronger candidate to beat Bush. If you guess that the bodies are going to keep coming home, and no WMD's will be found then you must admit Kerry IWR vote is a serious liability. In Kerry v Bush, the war effectively is a lost issue bc everytime kerry critiques, Karl Rove buys TV ad's saying "then why did you vote for it?".

I'm sure you are a hardcore progessive liberal, and god love you for it. I too consider myself a hardcore progressive liberal but I want a candidate who's more liberal on the war then on govt spending. I think the fact that Dean balanced vermonts budget will look beautiful going into a campaign where most states are running in the red and Bush is close to literally spending us to the moon. However your quote <"Those of us who cherish liberal and progressive politics are ever more taking the point that5 it may be better to lose a battle in 2004, to keep the contagion of fiscal conservatism out of our party".> shows that we may have hit a philosphical sticking point. I dont think we can afford to lose in 2004. I think the world we become a very grim place once the international community realises that they have to deal with Bush for another 4 years. Please heed my words, there is absolutly no greater good served by Bush wining.

- Aloha Texan
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maxr4clark Donating Member (639 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-21-03 03:41 AM
Response to Reply #54
58. If Dean = anti-bush, Clark > Bush

I like a lot about Kerry, but unless he wins New Hampshire outright, I seriously doubt he will become the nominee. The third candidate in the polls in New Hampshire is Clark, who is currently running second nationally. Dean's numbers may be hurt by an upturn in the Iraq War, but Clark's won't; and Clark didn't vote for the IWR either. Clark's objection to Bush's foreign policy is fundamentally different from Dean's in two ways.

1. Dean's credibility on the Iraq war is historical; it is based on Dean being the first of the candidates to oppose the war, and on anger about the 2000 election, and on anger about the costs of the war. These are largely important to committed Democrats, and will fade or have no effect on uncommitted voters in the general election. Clark has a career in foreign policy and successes there that give him credibility on foreign policy with everyone in the United States. In the general election, Clark's kind of credibility will be much more of an asset than Dean's kind of credibility. Clark's objections have to be taken seriously by Bush, but Dean's can be overturned by playing Bush's favorite card: fear. Will Dean protect you as well as Bush will? That is what they will ask. The same argument won't work with Clark; he's a General, Bush only plays dress-up.

2. Amazingly, Dean has been able to attack Bush without presenting ideas of his own on foreign policy for over a year. Clark has been presenting credible alternatives to Bush's foreign policy since he entered the race. Uncommitted voters will be swayed more effectively by strong criticism accompanied by credible alternatives than by strong criticism alone.

If the election will be won or lost on foreign policy, Clark is a much stronger candidate than Dean is.

On domestic issues, here are my two cents.

On the economy, Dean has a history of balanced budgets...in Vermont. However Dean has taken issue with Bush on the economy for a long time, and will be judged on whether the economy looks good or bad at the time--which is not under his control. Clark has a degree in Economics, and is very good at discussing economic issues when he gets more than forty seconds in which to do so. Clark can claim to have a better personal understanding of Economics than Bush does, and that cannot be taken away by fluctuations in the economy. So I see Dean and Clark as both having strengths on the economy, although of different types.

On healthcare, Dean probably has the advantage...but then again, Bush has the sweeping reform of Medicare to point to, and I don't see healthcare as a winning issue this election.

That leaves social issues. I see more strength for Clark there than Dean; Clark has been very good in the debates on questions like gays in the military and affirmative action. Dean has been more outspoken against religious beliefs, though, so he may be easier for Bush to attack. I also think Dean would be easier for Bush to attack on character than a four-star general.

Overall, then, I think Dean and Clark are actually comparable on domestic issues, with the exception of healthcare (Dean wins) and social issues (Clark wins). Remember that I'm talking about against Bush, not among the democrats.

Ultimately, though, I think the general election will be decided on who will do better in the next four years on the things that have been most important in the past four years. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is various parts of foreign policy.

Before anyone starts talking about Dean/Clark or Clark/Dean tickets, I don't think that will happen; Clark isn't interested in being VP, and Clark wouldn't ask Dean to serve as his. If nominated, Clark might ask Kerry; Kerry after all has experience in the Senate, which is where the VP usually spends his time (Cheney being a notable exception), and a Clark/Kerry ticket would also be stronger on defense and represent both the middle south and the northeast. So unless Clark has a non-candidate in mind, I see him choosing Kerry rather than Dean as a running mate.

So please join me in supporting a Clark nomination, and hopefully a Clark/Kerry ticket!
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Jack_Dawson Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-17-03 05:01 PM
Response to Original message
55. Nail on the head
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drfemoe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-20-03 10:14 PM
Response to Original message
56. Editorial Release #1
n/t
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maxr4clark Donating Member (639 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-21-03 02:37 AM
Response to Reply #56
57. What is that?
What does n/t mean?
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dfgrbac Donating Member (378 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-26-03 05:38 PM
Response to Original message
61. Any Democrat who honestly tells it like it is - will win!
I don't see too many doing that, however!

To run an honest campaign against Bush and the Republicans requires the Democrats to talk openly and honestly about what our country has been doing. The people who have been protesting in the streets against the Iraq war already know, and they have been trying to let the rest of us know.

We are living in a corporate-controlled military Empire. They also control what we think by their PR news in the mass media. No, the news is not news anymore, it is PR designed by PR professionals.

An honest campaign about how our national wealth is being used to try to control the world's economy while our needs here at home are ignored would win overwhelming support! You would see a landslide like you never saw before. Remember, there are a whole lot more workers in America (or anywhere else) than there are CEOs or corporate managers. Choosing a candidate who would make corporations happy would be a terrible mistake for us. We need to make the people happy!

Dennis Kucinich would run such a campaign!
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