New Ipsos-Reid Poll on nationwide race for Dem nomination

[CMT]

The new Ipsos-Reid political poll has been released. Its press release focuses on Howard Dean's momentum rising from 7% in May to 12% nationally today. Still John Kerry, Joe Lieberman, and Dick Gephardt are still narrowly ahead of Dean in nationwide preference--in fact it could be described as a four way battle for the white house at this point according to this and other recent polls.

Nationally:
Kerry 16% (up from 15% in May)
Lieberman 16% (down from 18% in May)
Gephardt 14% (no change from May)
Dean 12% (up from 7% in May)
Edwards 7% (down from 9% in May)
Mosley Braun 4%
Graham 4%
Sharpton 3%
other/none of them/undecided 24%

The press release highlights the subgroups which Dean is doing best with (and they are interesting):

Individuals 75 years and older 22% favor Dean
Men 45 years of age or older 17% favor Dean
People with a college degree 18% favor Dean
Residents of the Mountain States 25% favor Dean
Residents of New England States 17% favor Dean
Individuals who disapprove of Bush economics 13% favor Dean
Individuals who think the country is on the "wrong track" 13% favor Dean.

What is interesting is three points:
1) many people have assumed that Dean does best with the very young, but in fact this poll indicates that Dean has his best showing with the very oldest among us.

2) The male vote is going to be important and Dean has been demonstrating that he is appealing to men.

3) The mountain states (Wyoming, Idaho, Montana, Colorado, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, and New Mexico) gives Dean a solid 25% support level (more than twice his national support level of 12%) and this is a region of the country which Democrats will need to do pick up some states in: Nevada, Arizona, Montana, and Colorado especially--NM narrowly went Democratic in 2000--and Dean is doing quite well here in this early stage.

http://www.ipsosreid.com/media/dsp_displaypr_us.cfm?id_to_view=1875

[TheBigGuy]

1. these ARE fascinating results.

Esp Deans strenght with the elderly and in the Moutain West....outside the box for sure!.

Also, this is still name recognition, but you are seeing some movement as folks, I guess, get a bit more serious about this and start paying attention...note Liebermans dropping....and Dean is moving up.

[CMT]

2. yes, the undecideds are growing too

and so it is still fluid. We can't really count anyone out. Even Edwards who declined two-points from the previous survey nationally has 7% which is where Dean was in March. Who knows he could suddenly catch on and see his numbers double.

[gottaB]

3. comments on "topline results"

1. In the recent poll only Dean's gain is statistically significant. However, looking back to January, Lieberman's drop is definitely significant (from 21 to 16).

2. The If Hillary Clinton runs numbers are slightly different from Quinnipiacs I've seen. The level of commitment would seem to be growing for Gep and Dean (you should compare to level of support without Clinton in the race).

I wish they reported the complete demographic breakdown for all candidates. As it is, you comments about Dean are right on, CMT. This is an interesting twist.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

4. The race is wide open at this time!!!

:dem: