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And the decision of the political analysts was the same... Running an attack campaign on other democrats, and running an anti war campaign is going to lose the democrats the election. This is the total scenario...
There are two strategies for winning.
One is the DLC strategy says the electoral pie is always shrinking, and 40% always vote one way and 40% always vote the other way, so engage in focus-group politics to snare enough of the 20% in the "middle" to win.
Thie second philosopy states vote your conviction and that"people are disenchanted and will respond to a healthy, populist message, and that will bring non-traditional voters to the polls, and get those people who don't vote"
Kerry, Gephardt, Graham, and Lieberman subscribe to the first theory.
Kucinich takes the second route
Dean, it seems to me, subscribes to neither. His followers are "proud" of pissing off both the so-called centrists, as well as dissing the "thinking liberals." His entire support structure, so far, is made up very vocal activists in the middle between liberals and centrists.
There's no way that kind of constituency will translate into a win against Bush, a guy who got enough votes to steal the election by "being a guy someone could have a beer with."
Now I really do think it's time for a conviction politician, a populist, to win. Kerry is moving in this direction, Kucinich is already there, but does not have the momentum to win anywhere but in hos own state, where he manages to win consistantly. Kerry as well, runs, and wins, so often that he now pretty much runs withour opposition in his own state. I bet even Dean wishes they would shit up about it.
But Kerry has shown consistancy in everything he stands for, in everything he says, his stance as Senator is NO differnt than the position he takes as candidate. Kucinich has made one change, in his abortion stance, but is a person who has otherwise lways rn as Dennis Kucinich. One does not have to look at Kerry or Kucinich and looks at their overall recrods and try to use some translation chart in order to try to make their past record turn into soomething that resembles their campaign slogans.
In any event, I think the winner, this time, will be the candidate who best puts forth a populist agenda that neutralizes Bush and that energizes voters, and not a focus-group politician bent on winning by "single digits" in a fight for the middle 20%.
In my opinion, you can best support and help your candidate, by making sure they're the best populist (as well as a vigorous opposition to Bush).
As long as Dean supporters are playing their candidate against both sides, I think they're setting their candidate, and the democratic party up for disappointment.
Over 70 percent of all Americans support what has happened in Iraq, regardless of the methods that got the U.S. there. A candidate who supported getting rid of Saddam, but did not support Bush's making a hash of our international relations. placing American troops in harms way without an international peacekeeping force to share the danger and the worlds concern about the Hussein's regime and its thumbing its nose at the rest of the world will not win.
Evn Dean knows this, as he is desparately tryring to get the focus off of his attack on other candidates and the October Resolution. I am glad that Deans most activist and vocal supporters will not get off of this issue, as this focuses attention on Deans attacks on his own party, and his attack agaiinst the opinions of 70 percent of the American public.
Dean started his campaign by putting focus on the dreadful lack of insurance coverage in America, and has just pulled away from his calls for soing something quickly about those who have no health insurance.
Both he and Gephardt call for the repeal of the Bush tax cuts, which no matter how you slice it translates into a tax increase for ALL Americans.
On the other hand, Kerry and Edwards call for only repealing those portions that give the rich the bulk of the tax cuts, and giving tax reilef to the middle class and poor. It is necessary to make the disitinction that the democratic party supports relief for the average worker, and not givaways to the rich.
Kerry's ideas will be those that appeal most to the aveage democrat, his stance on the war parallels that of those 70 percent who support the war if only to get rid of Saddams repressive regime, and supports those who do not want their taxes raised, essentially by getting rid of even the small break they got from Bush's cuts. Kerry says, I want you to keep the little break that you gotr, and I want to soak the rich to pay for your health care, not incrementally, but within the first few years of my presidency.
Deans record of giving tax cuts overall, which ave something to the poor and middle class, but a bigger chunk for the rich just is not that populist message that the average democrat is looking for.
Dean is trying to retreat without retreating. He is as usual being vague, becasue he does not wuite know how to get out of the corner he has boxed himself into. Liberal, but conservative. Fiscally conservative, but provide a big new entitlement. Dena is a contradiction in terms, which may have worked among Vermonters, who seem to hav a rather bizarre and skeptical nature about politics.
Dean is going to alienate those 70 percent of Americans, who do not oppose what happened in Iraq, but wants someone with the smarts and experience to get as many American troops out and more U.N. troops in. They want somone like Clinton, who fixed the deficit not by cutting programs, but raising the top taxe level on the rich. Again, Deans rcord of opposing such solutions will be front page news before the end of the year.
AS Dean keeps reversing on the two items that he based his entire campaign on, immediate universal health care, and the war with Iraq, he will be percieved as weak, and eventually oppoprtunistic.
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