Arizona Poll: Dean Leads +10 (Pre-Gore)

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Arizona is a February 3rd ("mini Tuesday") state and, thus, important for deciding the Democratic nominee. According to this latest survey, Dean has opened a substantial (and statistically significant) lead over his rivals. Here are the results from that poll:

Dean: 22%
Clark: 12%
Lieberman: 9%
Kerry: 8%
Gephardt: 7%
Braun: 2%
Kucinich: 1%
Edwards: 0%
Sharpton: 0%
Undecided: 39%

N=418, MOE=+/- 4.9%, registered Arizona Democrats, conducted by Northern Arizona University for the Arizona Indian Gaming Association from November 14 through December 9, 2003.

Lieberman and Gephardt are slightly more familiar to Arizona voters than Dean; Kerry and Clark slightly less.

Dean has the highest favorability rating among Arizona Democrats (suggesting upward potential in his primary numbers) but is statistically tied with Clark (two points behind in that rating). Among all Arizona voters, Clark has the highest favorability rating but is essentially tied with Dean, four points behind. (Clark's unfavorables among all Arizona voters are statistically indistinguishable from Dean's.)

The poll was taken prior to news of Al Gore's endorsement of Howard Dean. The poll also pre-dates Dean's Arizona television advertising, set to begin soon and run until the February 3rd primary.

As a reminder, all polls are imprecise, and all polls reflect public opinion at a moment in time. The Arizona primary will not take place for another seven weeks or so.