ru guys nervous about the senate

[KA]

there are 5 dems that are retiring in the south
daschle is blowing smoke
if mayor juliany runs he could take a seat
boxer might be in troble
and if the gop picks up another one some where else
we are screwed
complety screwed
that would be 60 gop senators
a ruber stamp for bush nominations

i think we need to foucs more on senate races not just the presidency

[goobergunch]

1. Giuliani isn't running, and Boxer will probably be re-elected.

I don't see the Republicans having more than 56 Senators in the 109th Congress.

But even that's a little too close for comfort...:scared:

[KA]

2. i think this is overly optimistic

i dont think were geting any thing in the south

washington and iowa are defitily tossups

[goobergunch]

7. IA and WA are not toss-ups

IA is Chuck Grassley's seat...we'll have a shot at that when he retires, but not before that.

WA is Murray vs. Nethercutt...Murray is strongly favored, as Nethercutt has a tendency to put his foot in his mouth. Plus, he's from heavily conservative Eastern WA, which is not at all representative of a majority of WA.

EDIT: The 56 seat worse-case-scenario includes us losing every Southern open seat.

[Hawkeye-X]

11. I still predict a Democratic takeover of the Senate and the House

even if the DINO's in the South are retiring...

(With apologies to Hollings, Graham, and Edwards)

Hawkeye-X

[a_lil_wall_fly]

29. Why stated something with the ending of apologizing to more than

of them retiring. IF more than half are not dino's why start your block statement "even if the DINO's.....".
:wtf:

[BOSSHOG]

3. The Coonasses will be out in force in Louisiana

to ensure Breaux' seat stays democratic. A side benefit - if the state GOP golden boy David Vitter (oh he of marriage counseling issues and fascist dna) decides to run as the rethug, his seat will be up for grabs (in a mostly gop district)

You are right. The Senate is a huge concern. Dems need to start kicking ASS - AND RIGHT NOW.

I apologize for my relative impotence. I'm saddled with Lott and Cochran.

[ermoore]

16. What is a "coonass"?

Or what are "coonasses"? I could guess, but my guess would hopefully be very wrong.

[Rowdyboy]

21. "Coonass" is a term used to describe Cajuns in Louisiana

Some consider it offensive, some don't.

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=coonass

In 1959 when I was 5, my mother and I rode a bus from New Orleans (where we lived) to her home of Laurel, Mississippi. A salesman riding the bus paid me a quarter to say "I'm a little coonass!" which I did, over and over, for most of the ride. Everyone on the bus thought it was hilarious except my mom, who desperately tried to make me shut up.

[KA]

4. but any way

there are 51 gopers in the seant
+5 for retiering souther dems
56
+ dashel
+boxer
+shumer
(all of these are plosible)
+ just one up set
=60

[goobergunch]

8. Daschle is probably safe, and Schumer is safe

Daschle's only possible strong opponent is John Thune. If Thune couldn't beat the weaker Tim Johnson, he won't beat Daschle.

Schumer is likely to face only token opposition. Giuliani is likely IMHO to run in 2006, but has ruled out running in 2004.

Boxer will have to work hard for re-election, and given the Schwartznegger victory, I can't say that she is safe. However, she is definitely favored.

[KA]

9. i disagree

sd is a conservative state
johnson is more conservative then dashale

[goobergunch]

10. But Daschle is Democratic Leader

and has greater seniority than Johnson.

Year   Daschle Pct
1978 House   50%
1980 House   66%
1982 House   52%
1984 House   57%
1986 Senate  52%
1992 Senate  65%
1998 Senate  62%

Year   Johnson Pct
1986 House   59%
1988 House   72%
1990 House   68%
1992 House   69%
1994 House   60%
1996 Senate  51%
2002 Senate  50%

[thehonesttruth]

12. dashale stock has dropped

boxer seems kinda safe this far out. isn't a seat in alaska iffy, i think the current democrat was appointed by the governor.

[goobergunch]

14. The Alaskan incumbent is Republican Lisa Murkowski

IMHO, it's our second-best chance for a pick-up. Our candidate is former Gov. Tony Knowles, who remains popular.

[Mz Pip]

23. Bye Bye fillibuster!

n/t

[Frodo]

31. Not a chance.

Daschle Boxer and Shumer COULD each be beaten (in the right year with the right candidate), BUT any one of those would be an "upset". You're speculating about FOUR upsets AND losing all five "tossup - leans R" seats in the South.

That is HIGHLY unlikely - even if shrub wins in a walk. Dascle doesn't have an opponent (and even Thune probably doesn't take it beyond "tossup-leans D"). Boxer doesn't have an opponent yet with any shot at winning and Giuliani does not appear to be running, I think he wants Hillary in '06. Anyone else loses easily.

Right now I think the most likely outcome is a loss of 3-4 seats (which is bad enough!). Nine is out of the question.

[juajen]

5. If it's any comfort,

I think Chris John will take John Breaux's seat easily. He is well liked here. That is, of course, if he decides to run. He will also work well with Mary Landreiu and Gov. Blanco. I'm lovin' Loooooosiana, right now.

[KA]

6. i hope your right

but i dont take any thing for granit in dixe

[KA]

13. i thought it was a goper who was valnerable in alaska

[goobergunch]

15. It is (n/t)

[hedda_foil]

17. We have a good shot at a pickup in Illinois.

[KA]

18. ya

i heard that to

my point is we cant just consitrate on the presidency


im not makeing a prediction about of a gop take over im talking about a very real posibility

[Kolesar]

19. Ohio's dem candidate for Senate has not caught fire

That is a nice way to put it. Eric Fingerhut is not doing well in fundraising or visibility. That's a shame because Voinovich is a shameless corporate bottom feeder, and should be vulnerable.

[election_2004]

20. Dems will do better in the South than convention wisdom predicts...

I predict that Democrats will hold the following:

Tenenbaum in SC

Castor FL

Bowles in NC

Alaska will most likely be a Democratic pickup, offsetting a potential Republican pickup in Georgia.

Illinois is a Democratic pickup.

John vs. Vitter will be close in Louisiana.

I also think we'll see an upset in Missouri, with Nancy Farmer defeating Kit Bond.

I don't see a Democratic or a Republican majority in the U.S. Senate exceeding 52-47-1, regardless of which party is favored.

[Mz Pip]

22. Hell yes

and if we have Dean as the nominee there will be NO coat tails to keep even one if those seats. We need a Southerner on the ticket and the way things are going we won't aand we will losse even our ability to fillibuster.

But we'll have our anger and our purity and our damn "We've got the power" bullshit.

MzPip
:dem:

[dsc]

24. Please tell me

and give me a link for, the southerner that was on the ticket in 2002 and 2003 while first Landreau and then Blanco won their seats. Please I would love to know who that southerner was. I don't recall. I as sure there was one since we won those races but I don't remember. Please help me out.

[Frodo]

32. Landreau and Blanco.

Both were Southern "moderate" Democrats. THEY WERE the head of the ticket.

And it isn't so much a need for a Southerner ON the ticket. It's a need for the ticket not to IGNORE the southern moderate democrats. Too many in Dean's wing of the party have a "southern strategy" that disolves down to "win without the south", which is FINE if the Presidency is all you care about... but it damages our chances of holding onto several of those seats.

[plurality]

25. there's a good race coming up in NH

Burt Cohen's coming in under the radar out there, and Gregg is more vulnerable than conventional wisdom would have some believe. the dscc has put it on the races to watch list, so it's definitely doable. check him out at www.burtcohen.org

[loyalsister]

26. Optimistic

about the chances of Nancy Farmer picking up Kit Bond's seat.

[forgethell]

27. let me depress you further

Even if the R*s don't get 60, if they make a significant pickup, say 3 or more seats, and if the House picks up more Repukes, and if * wins with a legitimate victory, all of which are possible, the filibuster is done. DINOs and careerists will desert Ted Kennedy like the Rats we are called leaving a sinking ship.

Let me give you another depressing possibility. President Dean is unable to get any progressive legislation passed because the Repukes hold a veto-proof portion of the Senate, maybe even retain control.

Fellows, our work is before us.

[angee_is_mad]

28. I agree, wholeheartedly

[a_lil_wall_fly]

30. Oregon Congressman Wu is going to be a dogfight....

plus the rumors that the traitorous ex-Democrat GOP state party Chairman Kevin Mannix is going to have a solid cast of misfits against Congresswoman Darlene Hooley.
Plus their is alot of seniors that are not happy with Senator Wyden--thou it would be a miracle for the GOP to defeat him.