Gallup National Bombshell: Dean Leads +18 @ 31

[tsipple]

National poll taken December 11-14, N=358, MOE=+/-6, Democrats and Democratic leaners who are registered to vote, Gallup. (12/5-12/7 in parentheses)

Dean: 31 (25)
Lieberman: 13 (10)
Clark: 10 (17)
Kerry: 10 (7)
Gephardt: 8 (14)
Sharpton: 5 (3)
Edwards: 4 (7)
Braun: 3 (5)
Kucinich: 1 (2)
Other/None/No Opinion: 15 (10)

Source: Polling Report. Last day of polling is post-Saddam.

My standard disclaimers apply: (1) polls are imprecise; (2) only a snapshot of public opinion; (3) there is no national Democratic primary; (4) public opinion changes.

On edit: Added some colons for readability and link to Gallup.

[Jack_Dawson]

1. Clark will win electorally

And that's the only way that matters...

[CMT]

8. all of them can win electorally

Recent polls seem to indicate that Dean is gaining ground here. Just today a new Pennsylvania poll came out showing he runs best against Bush in a key swing state. In the key state of Florida, Dean and Clark are running equally well vs. Bush. National polls show Dean gaining ground against Bush. NBC News poll indicates that prior to Saddam Dean was losing to Bush 51-39 and after Saddam capture it was 52-31 while Clark was running 53-28 behind Bush. Of course the Saddam bounce won't last for Bush. The argument that Clark is the most electable Democrat have been evaporating for some time now. Even polls which show him doing better than Dean are only marginally better within a point or two.

[deminflorida]

2. The moderate Dem Candidates Together poll 45%

and there's that 15% still out there....

[CMT]

10. and Dean is a moderate Democrat

and there is no reason to believe that all of the voters who support Kerry, Lieberman, Gep, or Edwards will go to Clark or some other candidate just to stop Dean. Infact, polls in Iowa and NH have indicated that Dean is the second choice of most voters in those states who are supporting someone else.

[tsipple]

11. Kerry is a moderate?

I don't think that's the case, Iraq War Resolution vote notwithstanding.

[CMT]

3. what is with the Lieberman numbers

his sympathy campaign seems to be getting some takers. But Kudos to Dean he is really moving up with Democratic voters.

[ALago1]

4. Why the Lieberman 3 pt increase?

The residual effect of the last day post-Saddam polling? Can't draw much conclusions till next poll when the Saddam incident has taken full effect in the minds of Americans.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

17. 3 pts isn't much with the MOE, but...

I think Joe may have gotten a tiny sympathy bounce from the Gore endorsement. I don't think he gets anything post-Saddam, except that I have to agree he has the most clever quip writers ("Dean is in the spider hole of denial." LOL.)

[RevolutionStartsNow]

5. stunning

In the mosr wonderful way, of course :bounce:

[Fridays Child]

6. Earth to DNC...

eom

[jmaier]

7. Dean isn't too

surprising. Polls bounce up and down based upon news. The huge amount of coverage from the Gore endorsement plus all of the "inevitability" articles and even the latest negative "Osama" ad give Dean a big jump in name recognition and positives.

To me, IA, NH, SC, AZ, OK polls as they materialize have slightly more relevance -- again, Dean is doing quite well. I think Feb 4th should be a very interesting day!

[Larkspur]

9. Wow! Clark takes the biggest hit.

Kerry's and Lieberman's poll numbers increase, but Clark's decrease.

I guess Clark will have trouble winning the anti-Dean nomination. The ABC's The Note was right a few weeks ago that the anti-Dean forces remain fractured and because they all think that they are entitled to be the anti-Dean candidate, none will drop out any time soon and this will only help Dean more.

[tsipple]

12. Re: Clark's 7 Point Decline in This Poll...

I wouldn't read too much into that. I am reserving judgment until we see more polls.

Also, Clark had a good poll come out recently in Oklahoma. (Yeah, I know, it's one poll, and they use automated telephones, and they push hard so that "don't knows" commit to someone, and it's Oklahoma which comes after DC, IA, and NH. But, still.)

[DS1]

13. If we're to rely on Gallup, we must admit that we've completely

lost touch with the voting Dem base. Lieberman is in second with 13% in this poll, here he gets 1%.

Am I the only one that sees this?

[Freddie Stubbs]

14. DU is not very representative of the Democratic electorate

If it were, a DLCer like Clinton would never had gotten the nomination.

[CMT]

16. the truth is

that DU is more to the left than the Democratic party as a whole.

[tsipple]

15. Heads Up... There's Some Speculation...

...That this new poll is actually N=1011 and MOE=+/- 3. I'm trying to get clarification now.

On edit: Never mind. It is MOE=+/-6.