CNN Poll and Iowa Markets: Dean far behind Bush others do better.

[Cogito]

Dean trails Bush in the new CNN poll by 23 points: 60 for Bush 37 for Dean!!!

Clark trails Bush by 16 points 56 to 40.
Lieberman trails by 21 points 59 to 38.

Over at the Iowa Political Stock Market Dean fares the worst against Bush in the general election of all the candidates. Check out the 2004 vote share market that sells contracts that payoff on the vote share of the candidate in the 2004 election when the candidate is the Democratic nominee. For example the Dean contract in that market pays Dean's vote share against Bush when Dean is the nominee and pays zero otherwise. Similarly, the Bush|Dean contract pays Bush's vote share against Dean when Dean is the nominee and pays zero otherwise.

Because each contract only pays if the candidate is actually the nominee we have to divide the value of the contract by the probability the candidate is the nominee in order to calculate the expected vote share for the candidate given that he is the nominee. That is easy to do since the Dean contract plus the Bush|Dean contract will together pay out $1 if Dean is the nominee and zero otherwise, the sum of those contracts is the market assessed probability Dean is the nominee. Thus,

Vote Share for Dean =
(Price of Dean contract)/(sum of Dean + Bush|Dean contract prices)

We can do the same calculation for all the candidates. A graph of the expected vote shares for each candidate over time can be found here. Currently Dean trails the Democratic pack with an expected vote share of 45% while all others are either at or above 50%.

This academic paper shows that if the Republicans had paid attention to the Iowa Political Stock markets in 1996 they would have seen that Dole was not a strong candidate against Bush. The paper says that Colin Powell (another general) would have done much better than Dole against Clinton and would likely have beaten him. But the Republicans did not work hard enough to get Powell to run and the rest is history.

The Iowa markets are not perfect by any stretch of the imagination, but, they combined with many polls reinforce the same message...Dean is going to have greater trouble getting elected compared to the other leading candidates.

The Dean supporters might be inclined to dismiss the Iowa Market but the Iowa Market is not all bad news for them. It puts a 70% probability on Dean being the nominee and no other candidate is above 10%. That message is also consistent with the message from the polls. In the same CNN poll mentioned above Dean leads in support among Democrats:
27 Dean
12 Lieberman and Clark
7 Kerry and Gephardt.

[molly]

1. I can't get to the graphs?

is it my server?

[dusty64]

2. I'm not buying

cnn polls. I do NOT believe LIEberman would do better against chimp as he wouldn't even get my vote. The divisive campaigns are a REAL turnoff to those few paying attention and I find my field of acceptable candidates narrowing fast, some will even cause me to vote third party next year if they manage to get the nomination. Great job guys!

[Jerseycoa]

3. All of those links are broken

I'd like to read the backup, so I hope you will fix them.

[cryofan]

4. there is an extra "http:// " .... just remove it

[Cogito]

5. links are fixed now.

[Jerseycoa]

11. Thank you :)

[9119495]

6. So how is Clark's 40% going to lead us to victory?

If the market says all our democrats lose, what's the point of running a candidate?

Besides, 3% difference between Dean and Clark is hardly a ringing endosement for Clark as a powerful nominee.

[AP]

7. Every 1% you need to close will probably cost $5-10 million

Furthermore, the fact that Clark is close with no good coverage, and Dean is doing the worst with a ton of helpful coverage for him is very revealing.

[dsc]

13. Oh yea his coverage has been so helpful as of late

and Dean will have $100 million more than Clark ($175 million vs $75 million). Thus by your own calculations Clark is better only if he is leading by at least 10 points.

[Cogito]

16. my calculations?

1% per $10 million? Is there any evidence of this anywhere? I don't think so.

[AP]

18. Except that vs Clark the Republicans won't have all those colorful quotes

to use in attack adds.

So, add another 20 mil to offset each individual quote, like "I never said SH wasn't a danger to the US."

[helleborient]

21. Clark's support has slipped from 22% to 12% over time...

Clark is sliding downhill all on his own...17% to 12% in this poll from the beginning of December until now.

[Kahuna]

23. Among Democrats (large% undecided)..Among ALL voters...

Clark does the best.

[Cogito]

8. The absolute numbers will change

What is important is the relative difference between the candidates.

Even if the Democrats are going to lose it is important to run a candidate who will make the race close if possible to ensure high turnout down the ticket and perhaps hold on to the ability to filibuster in the Senate.

[Kahuna]

20. It's a 7% spread. Not 3% .

Look again.

[JaneQPublic]

9. If we take this poll as the final word, Bush beats ALL Dem candidates

But of course, we all know things WILL change before the election, no doubt in ways no one even anticipated.

So this little exercise accomplishes little, other than boosting the morale of those people supporting the candidate who loses to Bush by the smallest margin.

[LuminousX]

10. Some people think we should be picking our candidate based on polls

instead of actual voter desires.

[gasperc]

12. Oh no, it doesn't fucking matter

we're a year out, at this point in '95 few thought Clinton would get reelected. At this point in '91 most thought that Bush would get reelected. In June of 1992, Clinton was at 27% in the polls, Bush was at about 33% and Perot stood at 36%.

We run a solid ground up campaign and we'll win!

[CMT]

14. Guess it depends on the poll

NBC's poll done over the same basic time frame has Dean doing better than Clark:

Bush over Dean 52-31 and Bush over Clark 53-28

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

Bush's bounce will not last.

the capture of Saddam will be old news in a month. Look at where our candidates were at vs. Bush just before the Saddam effect:

Bush over Dean 50-46 (according to the gallup link)
Bush over Lieberman 52-46
Bush over Clark 50-47

all closing in on Bush. This will not last.

[dsc]

15. MOE is +/- 3

that makes his lead 1 point. Oh big whoop. Oh and when Clark goes around saying, that he was against the war too, he will be percived just like Dean.

[Cogito]

17. you misunderstand MOE

.

[helleborient]

19. So what explains Clark's slide among Democrats??

22% after he announced his candidacy...12% now. It's similar to Kerry's slide. It seems that the more people find out about the candidates, the more they like Dean over others.

I'm confident the same trend will follow in the nation as a whole.

It seems natural that Clark would be more familiar right now to the nation as a whole - high profile NATO position in Kosovo...as more know about Dean, he will catch up.

[Kahuna]

22. Clark does better with crossover voters than the others...

How can we win when Democrats can't do simple math? Sheesh!

[helleborient]

26. Hmmm...most polls show Dean doing better among independents...

And I am quite good at math, thank you.

[LuminousX]

24. 88% don't want Clark

[WiseMen]

25. The main conclusion is the same as Common Knowledge: Dean Won't Win

[BargainMan]

27. To Nominate Dean is to Obey Bush

It is clear that Bush wants dean. He has handcuffded all the other canidates with war votes, and medicare bill. He is evn letting the Enron connections with Dean slide. He wants that issue still alive in the general. If Dean is a serious canidate he will adress the Enron alligations.

[caledesi]

28. I didn't believe that Dean didn't have a chance to be the Dem

nominee, when we heard this mantra over and over.

And I don't believe this stuff either. The Repugs are scared stiff of Dean because they know what a "street fighter" he is and not going to take any of Rove's crap. They will not be able to "McCain" him.

Dean will be the next president of the US.