As a paid policitcal consultant, I am aware of something others may have missed -- Dean has a secret weapon that Bush and Rove cannot acquire. There is a New Generation that just reached voting age: the MILLENNIALS! (also called "Generation Dean" or "Generation Y")
In the book "Generations", Strauss and Howe show that there are cycles to generations and this profoundly affects politics. Where Generation X is mostly inactive politically (although some are not) and tends to vote conservative, the upcoming generation is the exact opposite. Known to demographers as the Millennials for their coming of age at the beginning of the Millennium, this new generation was born between 1982 and 2001 and will shove this country so far to the left you will not recognize it.
Merry Christmas!
Born of progressive Boomer parents, the Millennials "echo" their radical/liberal views or find progressivism on their own. In 1996, Howe appeared on TV and actually predicted that the Millennials would soon be out on the street battling the corporations and war by the year 2000. Right on schedule, we had the Battle of Seattle in 1999!
Since then, the many demonstrations at WTO and the anti-Iraq War movement, all mostly young Millennials, HAVE PROVED THIS PREDICTION TRUE. Strauss and Howe go on to predict that the Progressive Boomer Generation and the Progressive Millennial generations eventually form a "Generation Sandwich" as the older "Silents" (born 1922 ro 1941) die off and the Millennials come of age. There are 82 million Boomers and 75 million Millennials. As they reach voting age, the Millennials will vote 90% Democrat or Green if they vote and they will vote in large numbers, probably near 50%.
2004 will be the FIRST Presidential Election they are eligible and there are already 15 million of them of voting age for 2004.
This is Dean's secret weapon that is now staring Rove in the face, as he has had little or still no awareness of it up until now. In December, Rove finally realized he's about to get shlonged and put those desperate ads up to try and get Anybody But Dean. He is now obviously terrified of him or he wouldn't have made those ads. Why?
THE MILLENNIALS!
In addition to the 15 million eligible to vote, add another 7 to 10 million Millennials below the age of 18, many of whom will become Dean workers (500,000 by election day? 600,000??). Since about 45% of the 15 million will vote for Dean, that's an extra 6 to 7 million votes for Dean that Gore did not have! Yes, I know, you'll say, young people will never vote in such numbers.
WRONG!!!! These are not any young people -- they are THE MILLENNIALS, even more fervent and radical than the Boomer Generation!
Many Gen Xers are radical progressives, if they were raised by Boomers or became radical by themselves, yet they are few compared to the 15 million Millennials who become eligible and then active once they realize the Bush will bring back the DRAFT in 2005.
(Here is the Readiness Plan from the SSS, which reduces the activation time from 8 months to 75 DAYS!!
http://www.sss.gov/perfplan_FY2004.html)
When you add the Millennials to the disaffected Republicans, soldiers, veterans, Hispanics, Reagan Democrat Union people and all the people thrown out of work or had their overtime cut, plus all the older people who never voted before, Howard Dean has quite a secret weapon in his back pocket -- and it's called 8 to 10 million extra voters. It will be enough to take Ohio and West Virginia plus all the states Gore won the last time.
That means Dean beats Bush 285 to 253 in the electoral college!
In your face, Karl! At least 8 million extra voters!! It's demographics Republican Jingoism will never be able to penetrate.
And it only gets worse, Karl. Every four years another 15 million Millennials become eligible to vote! In short, the GOP is doomed, my DU friends, and their end is very near.
Here is a review of the Generations book by Warren Dew, which starts by confirming that the predictions written in 1992 about the "Heroic Millennials" have now come true!
A friend of mine lent me this book a few weeks ago. Skeptical about any book purporting to predict the future, I immediately read their predictions section - after all, the book was published ten years ago. To my surprise, I found that their predictions for 1992-2002 were largely correct! So I started again, at the beginning. The book is a work of genius.
The central tenet of this book is that generations don't age the same way, and when looking at generations through history, the correct way to look at them is by cohort - that is, by groups with similar birth years - rather than by age. In other words, if you're born in 1950 and grow up in the '60s and '70s, you'll be different at age 50 than you will if you're born in 1970 and grow up in the '80s and '90s. Strauss and Howe then trace a number of generational cohorts through American History, and find evidence of a cycle of generational types - usually a four part cycle, but in one case a three part cycle. For example, they liken Gen X (whom they call "13ers"), born in 1961-1980, to the "Lost" generation born in the late 1800s.
As a trailing edge boomer, born in 1960, I was not surprised to find that the authors, both boomers, correctly identify the defining characteristics of my generation - characteristics that I happen to dislike, as I'm in the minority that don't fit the mold that well, but that I have to acknowledge as accurate for the majority. On the other hand, the description of the Silent generation, to which my parents belong, was an eye opener - it explained well why my fathers views of what different stages in a man's life are like seemed so alien to me. The description of Gen X was likewise enlightening, both in terms of explaining some of my previous business interactions with Gen Xers (they always seem so surprised when someone actually gives them a break - turns out it's because they hardly ever get breaks) and helped me understand and interact much better with one particular Gen X who is very important to me - my wife. The description of the Millenials seems to be accurate so far for undergraduates I work with.
To buy the Generations book go to Amazon:
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0688119123/qid=1072383763/sr=2-3/ref=sr_2_3/002-0321525-5012815There are many progressive Gen Xers who are really more early Millennials. And the Gen Xers here at DU are certainly of the Progressive variety!! Yay!
So we don't need to get into a pissing match about the Generations. We are all against Bush and to get rid of him we WILL unite the Generations and vote him out.
Many Gen Xers have already woken up in the last 3 years and now see through Bush or have been affected by him someway to make them politically active (lost their job, their overtime, got shot in the leg, worried about their job going overseas). Plus don't forget, if they are computer experts or linguists, doctors or nurses they will have to register for the SPECIAL SKILLS and MEDICAL DRAFT by May 1, 2005 (after Bush and the COngress reinstate conscription on April 1, 2005 -- April Fool's Day).
So let's not let the Generations divide us -- that is not real compared to the PNAC Plan to take Central Asia. THAT is real.
ALSO: I'm not saying every Millennial will be progressive radicals, not in 2003, but more in 2004 and a lot more in 2005 when the DRAFT is re-instated. I'm saying 45% will vote for Dean (and no one else--outside of Kucinich who won't make it). The other 55% will not vote or vote for Bush in small numbers. Maybe 10% of the 15 million will vote GOP. So you see, I'm predicting that the 18-22 vote will equal the percentage of older voters (but not the Gen Xers -- who will remain lower). And the parties both intend to try and reach every voter this year--at least in the swing states, and Dean WILL contact every voter period.
This is what activates the Millennials and gets them going, the one-on-one contact from the campaigns. Plus the DRAFT will become the main issue for them as it becomes clear Bush will need it in 2005 and is actively readying the SSS machinery so the first DRAFT LOTTERY is June 15, 2005.
People don't really become political until a certain age and series of events hits them. I'm predicting what will happen in 2004 and 2005 as the election and the coming DRAFT enters their consciousness and their CONSCIENCE. Many but certainly not all Pro-Bush or apathetic Millennials will then go Dean as the Dean outreach efforts call all of them on the phone or knock on their door.
Meanwhile, the Millennials already aware will finally have a reason to vote but they won't even register unless their state has an important primary or until the Dean campaign contacts them and registers them on the spot (March to October 2004).
So whatever is true now will be completely transformed by October 2004. Then take a survey, Mr. Rove -- and read it and weep because Bush cannot win, even after you steal FL and OH.
CALLING ALL MILLENNIALS (and you Boomers and Progressive Gen Xers, too) -- IT'S TIME TO TAKE YOUR COUNTRY BACK!
MERRY CHRISTMAS EVERYONE, BECAUSE NOW YOU KNOW THE SECRET TOO!
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