CNN: Dean Trails Bush by Only 5 Points

[unfrigginreal]

Inside Politics reports on a new CNN/Time Poll of 1,004 adult Americans conducted by telephone on December 30 and January 1. Despite constant attacks from the inside-the-beltway pundits and campaigns, who keep charging that Dean is "unelectable," he now trails George Bush by a mere 5 points -- 51% to 46%.

Just to put that into perspective: in April of 1992, Bill Clinton trailed George H.W. Bush by 20 points.

This morning, the Atlanta Journal Constitution reported that the other campaigns are now trying to use cell phones to try to prevent Dean from winning the Iowa caucuses:

Bill Carrick, one of Gephardt's advisers, said a Gephardt win is important in stopping Dean, or at least slowing him down. So other presidential hopefuls may be willing to throw last-minute support to Gephardt in the caucuses. The Gephardt campaign has even floated the idea of the non-Dean campaigns using cellphones to coordinate voting within the caucuses. "Every one of them needs us to win," Carrick said.
And if you're wondering why the other campaigns would work together to defeat Dean, it's because none of them seem able to do it on their own. CNN's poll looks at hypothetical head-to-head pairings that test what will happen when the race is winnowed down, and against any one of the candidates, Dean wins:

Dean vs. Clark: 46% to 32%
Dean vs. Lieberman, 50% to 32%
Dean vs. Kerry, 51% to 29%
Dean vs. Gephardt 53% to 28%

http://blog.deanforamerica.com/archives/002928.html

[caledesi]

1. Woo Hoo! The Doctor is definitely in! nt

[takebackthewh]

2. Yeah

Until the voters find out more about him.

Most of my fellow Dems aren't even watching the race yet. They know almost nothing about the things we've been discussing here for months.

[caledesi]

4. But they will...mark my words.

Dean is running a brilliant campaign - unprecedented.

When I first brought up Howard Dean's name and was way back in January, my Dem friend said "no way, no name recognition, small state, NE." Well now he is "singing a different tune and is voting for Dean.

[w13rd0]

6. Yeah...

...and they'll find out more about him, and even moderates and dissaffected Republicans will say, "Hell, he's WAY better than Shrub, I'm voting for him too." And the dissaffected Greens and Independents disgusted with politics say, "Wow, he actually listens to the ORDINARY PEOPLE around him. He doesn't always agree with them, but he actually listens. That's a step in the right direction, a big step, I'm voting for him too."

[Sean Reynolds]

10. You're right.

Once voters find out more about him, Dean being behind by 5% will change to Dean being up by 10+%!

[Name removed]

18. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[takebackthewh]

23. Well I mean

I've been lurking here for months. It was only today that I finally decided to make it official.

[nadinbrzezinski]

3. Ok this is starting to be unstopable

time to staunch the bleedign folks, becasue now it is Rove we will have to face

[caledesi]

5. "Bring it on " says Joe Trippi! nt

[SlavesandBulldozers]

7. this is good news

for all Americans, not just Democrats.

[lancdem]

8. I agree totally

Does anyone have a link? A 5-point deficit is phenomenal when you consider Saddam was captured, what, 2 1/2 weeks ago? I guess Bush's Saddam "bounce" has gone flaccid. (Sorry, I couldn't resist.) :evilgrin:

[goobergunch]

9. Link

http://blog.deanforamerica.com/archives/002928.html

[lancdem]

12. Thanks

The link is actually on the original post, but I missed it. I wonder what Bush's approval rating is in this poll. It can't be higher than 51 or 52 percent. BTW, Dean getting 46 percent of the vote at this stage is incredible.

[tedoll78]

11. Bingo!

Exactly what I was thinking!

And imagine what might happen if this Plame investigation pans-out, even just a wee bit.
And then what happens if things don't improve in Iraq?
And what if manufacturing jobs continue to flee the country, especially from key states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan?

With the Democratic Party united behind him by March (fiscally and volunteers-vise), with George Soros' get-out-the-vote campaign in those 17 key states, with the Green Party Nader-ized, and with continued campaign creativity, Dean's in great shape.

[lancdem]

13. Very true

I love the way you put it all together - makes me, dare I say it, actually optimistic!

[boxster]

14. Deleted

Misread the original. Never mind!

Still, don't you think the undecided numbers are a little fishy? I find it hard to believe that 97% of respondents are picking a candidate.

[RUexperienced]

16. Last survey, Americans could not name ONE Democrat

running for president. But this month they already made up their minds?

SOmething sounds fishy!

[boxster]

17. I agree.

There is no way that those numbers are correct. My guess is that there's a typo.

[unfrigginreal]

19. What are you talking about?

Here's all of the head to heads with Bush:

In direct matchups today against President George W. Bush in 2004, likely voters would choose

Bush over Dean 51% to 46%,
Bush over Lieberman 52% to 46%,
Bush over Kerry 54% to 43%,
Bush over Gephardt 53% to 44%,
Bush over Clark 53% to 43%,
Bush over Edwards 53% to 43%.

More findings:

# Only 1-in-4 (35%) are paying "very close" attention to the 2004 presidential election right now. Another 22 percent are paying "fairly close" attention, and 25 percent are paying "some" attention, while 17 percent are paying "just a little" attention.

# Things are going well in the country, say 65 percent (up from 53% Nov. 18-19).

[Sean Reynolds]

20. No, what it says is that people are uniting to defeat Bush!

Hence that the others are only 10 points behind Bush. People that don't support Dean in the primaries support him over Bush in the election, why is that so hard to believe?

[RUexperienced]

21. Last month half the population could not name one

Democrat. But this month they have sorted out all nine and chosen Dean?

It just sounds a little premature.

[MikeG]

15. Dean to Bush: Can you feel me????

[dfong63]

22. Gep has lost his bearings

Bill Carrick, one of Gephardt's advisers, said a Gephardt win is important in stopping Dean, or at least slowing him down. So other presidential hopefuls may be willing to throw last-minute support to Gephardt in the caucuses. The Gephardt campaign has even floated the idea of the non-Dean campaigns using cellphones to coordinate voting within the caucuses. "Every one of them needs us to win," Carrick said.

Gep seems to have forgotten who the real enemy is supposed to be.

[arcos]

24. Kerry would never support that because he could come in 2nd n/t

[maxr4clark]

25. Good news

I'm glad to see encouraging news about the prospects of beating little George in November! Go Democrats!

I think it is pretty amazing that Clark does best against Dean for the nomination. There are two major differences, as I see it, between Clark and most of the other candidates. One is that he is considered a Washington outsider, a status he shares with Dean. The other is that he is the most credible of the candidates on national security and foreign policy.

If nothing else, I think Clark's candidacy carries some important longer-term lessons for the Democratic party. In addition to reinforcing the countrywide message that Politics As Usual is not popular, I think this really points out how important national security and foreign policy are AMONG DEMOCRATS. The Democratic Party will probably do much better in future elections if they provide a better option to Republicans on foreign policy. I think Clark is showing the way we can do that, and the Party would do well to look at his policy in detail.

[Progressive_Con]

26. So???

So what. Polls in my Home state of New Hampshire show Bush beating Dean down by a huge margin. At this stage before the first primary ballots are cast, Polls between Bush and Dean really do not matter. There is still ways to go before the Convention in Boston comes round.

[Freddie Stubbs]

28. New Hampshire is a Republican state

If the polls showed otherwise, it would be a major shock.

[GOPBasher]

27. Awesome news!

With the capture of Saddam and the economy looking "good" (it's not really, but the GDP is growing fast and many look only at that), this should be Bush's best month. I think he may be toast.

[Red Bob]

29. If dean

If Dean can hold onto what Gore won last time and capture a couple of extra states say Florida and one other he can do it, if the democrats move their resources out of the deep south where theyre not going to win anyway and concentrate their efforts on those key states they need.

If Dean wants to win the South he is going to have to make himself a lot less sensitive to politically incorrect messages. His comments about the Confederate Flag were good but then he ballsed that up, if he can use Bush's new immigration reforms to depict him as a modern day Lincoln it might pay off in the South but its risky stuff as it may backfire.

If Dean wins the primary he also needs to wisely pick his VP, someone who is different to him and will appeal to southern Christian-Democrats perhaps Clark.

[zorkpolitics]

30. Maybe a fluke?

Other polls are not backing up the 5 point difference.
see:
http://www.davidwissing.com/gen2004polls.html

In 4 polls after the new year, Bush beats Dean by 14 to 21 points.

But its way to early to get excited by these polls. Only after Dean or another Democrat wins the nomination, and maybe not until after the convention, will the polls mean much.