The Fat Lady Has Sung

[DJcairo]

IA should produce some good political theater but it's over.
http://nytimes.com/2004/01/09/politics/09CND-DEAN.html?hp

[liberalnurse]

1. The poor Kerry supporters are left wishing in an empty well.

I sense they will run to Clark looking for another hired gun.

[DJcairo]

2. I was for Kerry

and I still think he would make a great President. To me, he's like a Bill Bradley figure - a wonderful guy but running for Pres in the wrong century or at least the wrong decade. Dems want a Harry Truman, well, according to Senator Harkin, we've got one and I'm proud to support him. I'm not going to continue throwing barbs at a guy who clearly is the most capable Dem up there and who without a doubt has the best chance of rallying our troops to defeat Bush. This election is about turnout plain and simple (you only have to go back as far as '00 to see that) and Dean is the man to do it. His message is clear, and he is passionate. Those are two things none of his rivals can compete with.

[dfong63]

6. welcome on board the Dean train

[Cheswick2.0]

14. I know it has been very tough to deal with for many Kerry folks

I have thrown back as many nasty barbs at Kerry as they threw at Dean. But I agree, I think Kerry made one really bad choice, but basically he was the wrong guy for the wrong decade. Sometimes that is just how it turns out.
Welcome to Dean's camp if you are joining us. I hope you do come volunteer and it reinvigorates your hope just like it did mine.

[molly]

3. Nope - never ever say NEVER!

if Kerry does not win the nomination, I will look for the next best viable candidate - Wesley Clark - a Rhodes scholar and an honorable man - just like Kerry.

[liberalnurse]

4. I accept the positives but....he has no political experience.

The military universe is so different......These are the really big boys.......

[Progressive420]

5. Well I think Clark being

A political outsider could seriously work in for him in the General Election

[dfong63]

7. but Clark is not really an outsider

he worked in the pentagon and the white house. he worked as a revolving-door lobbyist. that's not an outsider. he still has no electoral political track record. Clark represents the worst of both worlds.

[tedoll78]

8. Barring some unforseen scandal, I agree.

Dean will win Iowa now. And Trippi will engineer a strong finish for Kerry via precinct captains checking-in by cell phone. He will order some of Dean's spare votes to be thrown to Kerry, perhaps even having Kerry edge-out Gephardt.

With a victory in Iowa, Dean will get a bounce in New Hampshire. It happens to almost everyone who wins Iowa. This guarantees a strong showing in New Hampshire for Dean. Kerry, bouyed by a stronger-than-expected win in Iowa, will place second. Clark will come in third.

With victories in both Iowa and New Hampshire, the media will spend the week between NH & SC asking, "Can anyone stop Dean?" Dean will have a winner's aura embued on him, and will recieve a bounce nationwide in state-by-state polls. Since Dean is usually first or tied at the top of most of these state-by-state contests, such a bounce will prove very handy.

South Carolina will come along. Edwards and Clark will divide the "Hey - He's A Southerner!" Vote, with Lieberman pulling some of the more conservative voters would would've otherwise went for the two Southerners. The Dean Bloc, unified and bounced, will narrowly triumph.

With victories in IA/NH/SC (and elsewhere), Dean will be too strong to be stopped. He has organization everywhere, he has money out the ying-yang, and his supporters are significantly more likely to show-up to events and voting booths. While many will be disappointed by a Dean nomination, at least we'll be able to unify early and all turn our fire back onto the Chimp.

I don't have a crystal ball, but this is how I see things playing-out. The Harkin endorsement came at THE perfect time, pulling Dean's ass out of the fire just when things were beginning to get really hot. I have no doubt that Harkin (and Iowa) will be rewarded richly should Dean win in November.

[DJcairo]

11. exactly right!

Even if Trippi isn't guilty of directly influencing caucus votes, the guy is no stranger to the Iowa caucus's and the campaign has cleverly been boosting Kerry's image through out the state. They are scared crapless about Clark in NH and need a big win in IA (and hopefully strong second for Kerry) to stop Clark.
The thing is: even is Kerry comes in 3rd, a win in IA almost certainly gaurantees a Dean win in NH and it will be very hard for Clark to find much traction after Dean wins the one state where his rivals had their best shot of stopping him - at least that's how the media will view it. The only reason Clark is doing well in NH right now is he and Holy Joe are the only ones there. Just wait until the Dean machine moves in after the Caucuses. Clark won't know what hit him.
You gotta feel a little sorry for Kerry, Gep and Edwards. All three are great guys in their own right and have wanted this for the last 20 years. I wouldn't feel bad about Clark. He's almost certianly in it for a VP slot and his own vanity. A Dean-Clark ticket would be great because it would fuse the Dean machine with the Clintonistas behind Clark. You gotta figure that Clinton could accept that because at least they'd have one of their own in there.
I firmly believe that all the shifting to Dean, the big endorsements, and the Clark boomlet, are to position the party for this eventual unification. Further more, if Clark wins he'd most certinaly pick Dean as VP because he'd need the votes and the turnout and he'd know that he could send Dean off to give barn burner speeches and rally the faithful. That won't happen though, because Dean has it, in my opinion.

[floridaguy]

9. Wishful thinking, but it's the ONLY good news lately for Dean and . . .

with the comments he made about the caucuses being stupid and controlled by extremists and special interest groups, yet again, he shot himself in the foot.

If you want to rest now, go ahead, you're gonna need it. Clark essentially conceded Iowa, and with his recent gains in NH, he is poised to take the nomination.

Perhaps you didn't read the latest CNN Poll.

[DJcairo]

12. Nartional polls are meaningless

the only reason Clark has improved nationally, is he is teh only one pundits are talking about as being a viable alternative to Dean. But if he cant get within 15% of Dean in NH I don't think he really stands a chance. He may win OK and AZ, but I think Dean takes SC, NM and the rest. The guy has such strong minority support. I read in the Village Voice the other day that even Russel Simmons likes him - and - he';s tryingt o sign up thousands of hip-hop nationals to votes this year.

[Capn Sunshine]

17. Clark nneds to make up over 20 points to even approach in NH

what polls are YOU reading?

[Mairead]

10. Harkin has demonstrated that he is only a politician. Sad but true.

He's not stupid. He knows that Dean is a status-quo candidate who was and is relentlessly promoted by Media Inc. Whose rise to prominence occurred almost overnight after a year of going nowhere, with simultaneous Time, Newsweek, and Business Week cover stories (and for all I know cover stories elsewhere too). This miracle began directly after Dennis Kucinich announced, a mere coincidence I'm sure especially since until that point Dean's name recognition numbers had been bumping along the bottom in the statistical noise.

[RogueTrooper]

13. Good analysis DJ

good to have you aboard :hi:

[w13rd0]

15. DJCairo...

...welcome to the Dean team. Hope next time we see you on the blogs or on chatforamerica, we can all look forward to beating the hell out of Bush. Kerry has been a good Senator, he has solid credentials. One of the things I often heard about Gore is that despite not being the best candidate or campaigner, he was one of the most qualified men in history for the job of President. I think Kerry has all the qualifications, but he hasn't been the best campaigner, and it's hurt. No hard feelings, and you can take heart in that the Dean campaign has been very good about listening to its supporters, and will continue to do so as it brings in supporters from other campaigns.

[slinkerwink]

16. glad to have you on the Dean campaign!

I'd rather have you onboard than anyone else, because you fought for Kerry long and hard, and that loyalty's hard to come by. We appreciate you being for Dean now-----trust me, he will get the nomination and beat Bush in the GE....

[pdxmike]

18. a plea for sanity

I am a commited Deaniac. I have contributed money etc...

Having said that, if my guy does not get the nomination, I will happily vote for the Demo nominee (yes, even uncle Joe).

So I am simply asking for the most outspoken of us to PLEASE turn the volume down a bit. Chear for your guy. Vote for him. Mourn if he loses. Then turn your attention to the ultimate goal - getting rid of Bush.

That is the only thing that matters