Dean Lead Shrinks in Iowa, Kerry Gains

[Feanorcurufinwe]

Democratic presidential front-runner Howard Dean held a shrinking three-point lead and John Kerry moved into a dead heat with Richard Gephardt for second place in Iowa five days before the state's caucuses, according to a Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby poll released Wednesday.

In a shifting race for the Democratic campaign's first big prize, Dean dropped four percentage points to 24 percent in the rolling three-day tracking poll and Kerry gained four points to tie Gephardt in second place at 21 percent.

North Carolina Sen. John Edwards gained one percentage point to 15 percent, setting up a tight race to the finish among the four top contenders in Monday's caucuses.

<snip>

Kerry, a senator from Massachusetts, has gained six percentage points since the first poll was published Sunday and actually led in Monday's round of polling, while Dean had his worst day, Zogby said.

Kerry is contending with both Dean and Gephardt among what were considered some of their strongest voting blocs, challenging Dean for college-educated voters and Gephardt for union votes.

"This is officially a three-way race," Zogby said.
http://wireservice.wired.com/wired/story.asp?section=Breaking&storyId=813823&tw=wn_wire_story

Looks like the coronation has been called off. We're gonna have a series of primary elections instead.


GO KERRY!

[adadem]

1. It appears

Iowans are very, very smart!
:bounce:

[bigwillq]

2. I can't wait for Iowa

then all the fun begins. I give credit to all the candidates. They are making their final push count. They have all given me reason to change my support but I think I'll stick with Dean.

[poskonig]

3. 3 points behind Dean is good for Kerry.

An Iowa win will translate into success in NH.

[bigwillq]

4. New to DU

Could we still discuss this? I just read the admin. message about the Primary forum being down. Please advise a rookie poster. thanks.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

6. A different forum crashed. Called 'General Discussion: 2004 Primary'

It was created to keep primary politics out of the General Discussion forum and it had a number of rules that the P&C forum doesn't have that were an attempt to foster civil discussion.

Politics and primaries a valid topic of discussion here in P&C.

[bigwillq]

7. Thanks for the help

[AP]

5. Kerry opted out of federal funds, He's unlimited on his spending, and he's

going up.

Dean is unlimited too. He's going down.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

8. If Kerry wins Iowa it will be a whole new ball game.

The public loves an underdog. The press loves a comeback story. This is shaping up to be a fun primary campaign after all...

[AP]

9. I think a lot of the building up of Dean was because Democrats know that

the eventual nominee needs to come out of the primaries looking like he or she accomplished something.

If it's anyone other than Dean, that person is going to look like a giant killer.

[adadem]

23. Seabiscuit n/t

[JohnKleeb]

10. Good

I am glad Kerry breached 20%. I like him best after Kucinich still.

[paulk]

11. Does anyone know what a "rolling" poll is? nt

[SEAburb]

12. Zogby said they poll a different 500 every day and average

the three latest.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

13. This is a description of the methodology

of the ARG NH tracking poll that describes it pretty well.

During each day of the tracking, a minimum of 200 interviews are completed among respondents saying they will definitely vote in the Democratic primary on January 27. The results reported are based on combining the last three days of interviews for a total sample size of a minimum of 600 likely Democratic primary voters. The composition of the sample by party is reported for each three-day period.
http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/method.html

The number may be different for Zogby but that's the idea. So what this means:

"Kerry, a senator from Massachusetts, has gained six percentage points since the first poll was published Sunday and actually led in Monday's round of polling, while Dean had his worst day, Zogby said."

is just what is sounds like. Kerry was in first place in Zogby's poll on Monday. He was only tied for second when you average in the previous days. But I think it is looking like a four-way race rather than a three-way.

[paulk]

15. thanks and

keep your fingers crossed!

this is the best news in a while.

[isbister]

14. Statistical Dead Heat

Zogby's poll has a statistical dead heat. But:

"Pollster John Zogby: “This is officially a 3-way race. Kerry is surging. He actually led the pack on Monday with 25% for the day. Dean had his worst single day with only 18%. Dean leads in the West, with Kerry in 2nd and Gephardt slipping, but Gephardt leads in the Central region of Iowa and the three are tied in the East.

“Kerry now leads among liberals, while moderates belong to Gephardt. The three candidates are bunched together among Democrats. Dean still leads among voters under 50, and Gephardt dominates voters over age 65. But it’s a 3-way race for those 50-64 years old.

“Kerry is challenging Dean for college educated voters, and challenging Gephardt for union votes. The three are tied among men, and the top four (including Edwards) are tied among women.

“This is fascinating. There’s major movement every day in Iowa.”

http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=779

[cindyw]

16. Kerry lead in Iowa today. Can we call him the front runner, pretty please!

I know I can't, but it would give me a nice day.

:toast:

[Feanorcurufinwe]

17. It's even better, it's the underdog who comes from behind to surprise

and it is the perfect story in search of a New Hampshire sequel. What makes it particularly telling is all the negative press leading up to now. Months of coverage where any mention of Kerry was dominated by stories of his 'foundering campaign'. Now wherever Kerry finishes in Iowa, it will clearly be good enough to be considered a comeback. And it's just a story that has so much resonance, the press will eat it up. They won't be able to resist.

[cindyw]

18. I'm holding my breath

n/t

[nightperson]

26. What Josh Marshall heard.

Maybe in some circles Kerry already is the favorite-http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/week_2004_01_11.html#002411 (2nd paragraph). :freak: :shrug:

[windansea]

19. nailbiter!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

good for Kerry!!

[BootinUp]

20. Holy evaporation

batman!

Yes...Robin, that's the result of the super duper bat boomerang... Dean attacks and his advantage disappears into thin air.

[curse10]

21. This is fucking awesome!

When I got the email on this when I just got home I about peed my pants I was so excited!

This gives me hope :-)

[Jerseycoa]

22. Go Kerry!

This is fab.

:toast:

[adadem]

24. This is how I feel today

:bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce:

[mitchum]

25. Great news. May the best man win. Please.