How is the media going to report IA if Dean doesn't win?

[AP]

Given the way the media has put Dean at the center of the frame for the past 9 months, I think, if he doesn't win in IA, there's going to be a lot of cognitive dissonance if they don't portray the winner as a giant killer.

And how huge is it going to be to knock off Howard Dean? Is the winnger of IA, if it isn't Dean, going to be the winner of the nomination? Will Clark be able to beat a non-Dean IA winner?

Of course, if Gep wins IA, this doesn't apply. So, in other words, if Kerry or Edwards wins IA, will it seal the nomination? Should Clark hope that Dean or Gep wins?

Tuesday is going to be a fascinating day.

[David Dunham]

1. If Kerry or Edwards Wins Iowa, Dean is in Big Trouble

If Kerry or Edwards wins Iowa, Dean will lose a lot of support around the country. Even if Gep wins that may happen. Most Dems around the country expect Dean to win Iowa big, and if he does not, he'll lose a lot of support quickly, and the winner of Iowa will gain a lot of support.

[joefree1]

5. Nope, they point out the following fact

Reality break:
>>Since 1972, only two winners of the Iowa caucuses have gone on to claim the White House – Jimmy Carter in 1976 and George W. Bush in 2000<<
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/politic...1n14caucus.html

Dean ain't Carter.

[AP]

8. How could Dean recover if he lost to Kerry or Edwards.

I guess I can imagine Kerry winning IA, and then stalling in the south.

But I can't imagine Dean losing and then recovering. OK, maybe he could win NH. But not if Kerry wins IA. Dean is the goliath now, and Davey beat Goliath. Goliath didn't come back and win round two.

[joefree1]

11. I'm a Pagan so forget the Bible metaphors

I'll guess we'll have to see what happens. Here's what I got on a fortune cookie today; Only thing that is for sure is that nothing is for sure.

Also check out the following article:
Ominous Polls:
A look at the Gallup polls over the past few months show why Democrats are becoming increasingly nervous about putting Clinton at the head of their ticket.
In a head-to-head match up on March 20, Bush led by only 52-43 percent and Clinton was indeed within striking range. But as the weekly disclosures took their toll during the ensuing primaries, Clinton's margin fell to 54-38 percent on March 29 and then fell further to 54-34 by the beginning of April.
Edit ...
"The negatives are forming on Bill Clinton like a political stalactite, drop by drop," said veteran Democratic consultant David Sawyer. "Each drip leaves a residue that builds on his negative image."
Edit ...
Quayle campaign committee, "We're following the Napoleonic maxim: Never interfere with the enemy when they are in the process of destroying themselves."
http://www.worldandi.com/public/1992/june/cr6.cfm

"If you have no enemies, it is a sign fortune has forgot you."
- Thomas Fuller (1608 - 1661)

[AP]

12. They're allegories. They work whether you're religious or not.

I'm not sure what your argument is about Clinton. Yeah, you can go up and down. But Clinton won the primary largely because he was seen as the Comeback Kid.

[joefree1]

15. I am religious, and simplistic allegories or metaphors are for kids

Life for adults are much more complex.

[AP]

17. The "Comeback Kid" was a powerful reduction of complicated facts into

an allegorical representation that people really were able to wrap their imaginations around.

So is the Davey/Goliath analogy.

Most of electoral politics is reducing complicated philosophical and political issues down to ideas which are conveyed in a paragraph or a sentence.

[KaraokeKarlton]

2. Dean's going to win Iowa

All of his Iowa supporters will be spending the next few days working hard to convince as many people they know to caucus for Dean. He's calling for them to all drag as many people with them as they can get to caucus for Dean. Dean supporters are so loyal and determined that they will do just that, too. This is going to be the biggest turnout ever. And high school students are recruiting every senior who will be 18 by November of 2004 they can to caucus for Dean. There's almost 200 of them from one area already committed. The polls don't even show a lot of Dean supporters because they are new to politics and aren't on the pollsters call lists. I can't wait for the results!

[AP]

4. I'm not so much trying to predict the winner on the 19th as I'm trying to

predict what will happen if Dean doesn't win.

[AP]

19. I should note that I still fully expect Dean and Gep

to take spots one and two, but I'm not sure in what order.

I still think something dramatic needs to happen before Monday for a different outcome.

[Renew Deal]

3. Last post before I got to bed.

This will be quick. If Dean doesn't win Iowa, watch out. You will see walls collapsing in the Dean camp. They will come down fast and hard. Kerry would get a big boost into NH if he won. Gep wouldn't get anything going to NH. Either way, a Dean loss would change the race.

[AP]

6. B-7, could you gracioulsy give me a brief history of your time at DU

I have this vague sense that you've changed your tone dramatically, but I can't quite put my finger on what your old tone was.

It sounds like you're a realist now, not so affiliated to any one candidate. Have you always been this way?

[Renew Deal]

22. I feel

I feel like I am a realist. I am first: pro-dem, second: for Clark. A couple things have changed with me, but nothing big. Kucinich moved from 9 to 2. Kerry would have been my pick if Clark didn't enter. Dean was my #2 for a few weeks in december, but that went away. I am Clark, Kerry, Kucinich now.

[AP]

24. Bell rung.

Yeah, that's what I remember. Thanks.

[joefree1]

7. Good night, my last reply

Did you think the same when Clinton lost in Iowa in 1992?
>>Since 1972, only two winners of the Iowa caucuses have gone on to claim the White House – Jimmy Carter in 1976 and George W. Bush in 2000<<
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/politic...1n14caucus.html

Just keepin it real.
Joe

[AP]

10. See, Clinton was the comeback kid.

Since the media has been treating Dean as an inevitablity, whoever beats him will be the comeback kid even though it's the first primary. Dean can't be the favorite for 9 months -- the Goliath -- AND the comeback kid, or the Davey. You're one or the other, and Dean has been uniformly treated as the Goliath for too long.

[joefree1]

13. You been seeing a different media

I've been seeing the stuff where they say Dean has too much baggage, gaffes, flip flops, etc. But we'll see. ;-)

[DemBones DemBones]

14. You're right and I wonder if Dean can get away with

winning Iowa, if the win isn't BIG enough. Doesn't Goliath have to stomp all opponents into the ground?

[AP]

18. True.

However, I suspect that it will be easier to characterize a little win as a big win than it will be to characterize second place as anything besides a big loss for Dean and a huge win for anyone other than Gephardt.

[Renew Deal]

21. Clinton lost to Harkin

Is that a joke? Harkin didn't even campaign in Iowa because he was a lock.

[sandnsea]

9. Life is long, the primaries are long

I expect continued big fights no matter what happens.

[Epoch]

16. Down, down, down for Dean

If Dean doesn't win, and someone like Kerry or Edwards pulls it off, then Dean loses much support in NH, and around the nation. I don't mean the full fledged Dean supporters.. If Geph wins, it hurts Dean, but it's not a killer blow. If Dean does lose to Kerry or Edwards, than it is a major blow and NH turns very bloody as Clark, Kerry, and Dean battle for 1st. And SC turns ugly as well as Edwards, Clark, and Dean battle it out.

Either way, after Iowa and NH, I'll be interested to see who drops out. I think the first to go after CMB are Gephardt, Kucinich, and Lieberman. Al waits until SC, Edwards after SC depending on how well he does...

[Feanorcurufinwe]

20. The story is already written, the only question is how big the headline is

After months of media reports that his campaign was foundering, Kerry comes from behind to take first or second in Iowa. The big questions in my mind is will Edwards still some of Kerry's thunder, and will it give him enough of a bounce to make up for the time he's been absent from NH to campaign hard in Iowa.

Iowa State Political Science Professor Steffen Schmidt :

Alexandria, Va.: Do you have any predictions?

Steffen W. Schmidt: Yes the reporting will concentrate on how poorly gephardt did, how Dean was the old Story (he become #1 too early in the game) how Kerry did a remarkable catch up, how great Edwards looks and how he is a VP choice or a potential candidate when he matures in 2008.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A14013-2004Jan13.html

[9119495]

23. Here's how I see it.

If Dean doesn't win, he will take a hit, but it will be spun as (1) campaign collapsing by some in the media, and (2) too many ganged up on him.

Kerry needs the win. He is hemoraging support to Clark in NH and only a win will get some back. Those that are Clark supporters in NH though may want to stick with Clark as he will be undefeated then.

If Edwards wins, watch out Clark and good for Dean. Edwards will do little in NH but may take Southern support from Clark, and Dean will benefit because that portion of the vote will be split. Kerry would be done as would Lieberman and Gephardt so their support would be thrown into the mix with unpredictable divisions.

If Dean does win, the response will be (1) we kind of expected this, or (2) recent polling shows the governor surpassed expectations.

If Gep wins, the spin will be that he should have anyway and he will stay in untill South Carolina/Arizona--then drop out.

Should Dean lose Iowa and NH, he would be done but would stay in to position himself as VP--after all he has the money to stay in.


On Edit: I forgot to give the media's wet-dream wish. Ideally, Kerry wins Iowa, Dean wins NH, Clark gets AZ, Edwards gets SC and there is a 2-4 way fight to the convention. Obviously, this is our nightmare. We'd have no money and too many angry people. I actully predict that DU may dissintigrate in two weeks due to rage-bulid up