What's up with the Iowa poll? (plus predictions)

[Epoch]

So..wow...
That Iowa pull sure makes things interesting. 22/21/21 K/D/G. I feel that Geph is irrelevant at this point, except for one reason. even if Geph wins Iowa, he has absolutely nothing in any of the other states. But if he does win, and Kerry grabs second (or vice versa), Dean is faced with a huge blow, and Clark and Kerry steam into NH, possibly defeating Dean or making it very close. Either way, I feel that Clark will be a close second in NH (polls tend to tighten when election time is right around the corner).

If Dean gets third in IA and gets weakened in NH, then I feel Clark wins in SC, AZ, NM, OK, etc.
If Dean wins Iowa, I still think NH results (i.e. Clark finishing with a strong second) can change things dramatically as more and more people are taking a second look at Dean (don't flame me..please!)

Did I just rant and not make any sense? If so, I apologize...

[David Dunham]

1. K or E Wins Iowa, But Clark Wins NH after Clinton Endorses Him

I bet that Kerry or Edwards wins Iowa, but that Clark will win NH after Clinton endorses him. Everyone is endorsing except Clinton. Clinton has to be annoyed by Dean's rejection and criticism of Clinton's centrist record. Clinton likes Clark a lot and will therefore endorse him, giving Clark the most valuable endorsement by far.

[Maddy McCall]

2. I believe Kerry will win Iowa

Strategically, that will hurt Clark, but I am hopeful that he or Gep bests Dean in Iowa.

A third place finish for Dean would be detrimental to his campaign.

[Melodybe]

3. I think that Dean will win Iowa, our supporters there are working their

butts off. We have way more people. I am hoping Edwards or Kerry gets 2nd. I think that Gephart is cooked. The Gepthart's rally was on C-Span after Dean's and it was depressing. Dean had three times as many people, Reiner and Sheen, and that crowd was fired up!

Dean will win Iowa. Harkin's endorsement means a lot.

[David Dunham]

4. Kerry Has an Excellent Iowa GOTV Organization

Kerry has a superb GOTV operation in Iowa. It is headed by the man who got Gore 500,000 more votes than Bush nationally. Watch for Kerry's organization to work like a well-oiled machine and deliver a victory for him in Iowa.

[Epoch]

5. From another thread...

this is what I said on another thread and I think I should have said it in this one:

If Dean doesn't win, and someone like Kerry or Edwards pulls it off, then Dean loses much support in NH, and around the nation. I don't mean the full fledged Dean supporters.. If Geph wins, it hurts Dean, but it's not a killer blow. If Dean does lose to Kerry or Edwards, than it is a major blow and NH turns very bloody as Clark, Kerry, and Dean battle for 1st. And SC turns ugly as well as Edwards, Clark, and Dean battle it out.

Either way, after Iowa and NH, I'll be interested to see who drops out. I think the first to go after CMB are Gephardt, Kucinich, and Lieberman. Al waits until SC, Edwards after SC depending on how well he does...

[eileen from OH]

6. As the race tightens, I am damn worried about $$$

All of them but Dean and Kerry are limited by the matching funds thing. The 527s will help, but how are we going to go against the Bush cash arsenal with what is, comparatively, pocket change?


eileen from OH

[Melodybe]

7. That's true those who haven't opted out have shot themselves in the foot.