Will a Kerry win in Iowa hurt Clark's chances in NH and elsewhere?

[mzmolly]

I think that if Kerry wins Iowa, Clark's NH momentum may fade. I think Clark/Kerry compete for much the same demographic.

If Dean doesn't win Iowa, it could be good news for Dean as the media will be forced to really pay attention to the other candidates *baggage* for once. The other candidates will have to focus on one another as well.

This is gonna be interesting folks.

[edzontar]

1. We can only hope...Dean vs. Kerry would be a MUCH BETTER deal

At least these two are tried and true, genuine, Republican-opposing DEMOCRATS.

Anything that hurts the Trojan Horse candidacy of Clark is good for the party and good for America.

In the primaries, it's ABC!

[Bread and Circus]

8. Actually, I think only Kerry can claim that mantle...

[papau]

WWW replaces ABB - whoever will win is my guy!

But the show is interesting - and I still like Kerry....

and Dean, and Clark, and Edwards

:-)

[kerry-is-my-prez]

29. Didn't see Dean opposing those Republicans BEFORE this....

Dean teamed up with the Republicans in Congress to have their Draconian Medicare bill passed and also teamed up with them aften in Vermont. He was a regualr "scourge" to the Dem. Party. Don't be taken in by his campaign rhetoric...

[ginchinchili]

56. Besides, Dean can't beat Bush

There is no way on earth that the American people are going to remove Bush and replace him with a New England liberal who has no military experience and no foreign policy experience. Dean is not a good idea right now. We are effectively engaged in 3 complicated, unconventional wars: Iraq, Afghanistan and the broader war on terrorism. Do we really want Dean in charge of that? What are Dean's national security credentials? Vermont's only nuclear power plant, the Yankee Nuclear Power Plant, was rated the least safe of all nuclear facilities in the country. This was under Howared Dean. Is this the kind of national security we want? Well, we won't have to worry about it because we'll either pick a better Democratic candidate, or Bush will win.

[ginchinchili]

54. Sounds like sour grapes to me

So you attack Clark because he's the only one standing in Dean's way to the nomination. That's too bad. I think you're just one of those Democrat-lites who don't like the military. They do bad things and kill people. Well guess what. We need them to make sure you continue to have the right to support a Howard Dean and to express yourself freely on message boards like this one. You can call Clark whatever you want, it just makes you look as foolish as Dean makes himself look when he calls Clark a republican. Clark is going to win this thing and he's doing it without stooping to calling his Democratic rivals names or even attacking them. That's because he's got integrity, something your guy is lacking. It will be good for Democrats and good for this country.

[thedudeingeorgia]

2. Kerry win in Iowa??

I don't believe that a Kerry win in Iowa will have any substantial effect on Clark's standing in New Hampshire, except maybe move him up near Dean, or even higher than Dean.

The reason for this is because Kerry should already have a geographical advantage over Clark because he is from a neighboring state and also because a Kerry win in Iowa won't be by a wide margin...

Again, I ask you:

When was the last time a Democrat from the North won the White House?

[mzmolly]

5. When was the last time a General won the White House?

Or a new Democrat? I don't think your question is relevant.

[AP]

7. The last time one ran?

[joefree1]

22. Kennedy and Eisenhower?

This blast from the far past argument ain't going nowhere gents.

Here's a much more relevent fact:

>>Since 1972, only two winners of the Iowa caucuses have gone on to claim the White House – Jimmy Carter in 1976 and George W. Bush in 2000<<
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/politic...1n14caucus.html

[mzmolly]

32. I stand corrected, your right, it's really not that relevant.

:hi:

Thanks for the info. Interesting to note that the last Dem to win the WH and Iowa was JC in 1976. Thanks for the history lesson, I'm on dialup so I don't fact check like I used to ;)

[AP]

33. Just to be clear, I'm now seeing Dean supporters argue that a loss in IA

is good for Dean?

Does he want to lose so that he can win the nomination?

[Maddy McCall]

36. Sweet Lemons

Read your old Psychology 101 book. ;-)

[mzmolly]

40. Make Lemonade

See your Betty Crocker cook book ;)

Take 1 smeared candidate
3 candidates who were allowed to skate
give the smeared candidate time for a break from the media ringer
allow the other candidates time to trash/bash one another
smeared candidate has had time to regroup
media is forced to take an honest look at all the Dems
smeared candidate is fresh and ready to take on *

Violla, one sweet President Dean in the end!

[Maddy McCall]

43. only if you throw in a little imaginary sugar to take away from the bitter

residual taste. Good luck. :hi:

[mzmolly]

46. The sugar is rest for my candidate. AHHHH

and the end of the Stop Dean Movement. All the candidates were rallied around stopping Dean. What will they do now? Yup, SUGAR! ;)

[mzmolly]

38. Tell me do you expect Edwards to win Iowa?

I would like to see less focus on Dean and more on the other candidates. I don't think thats hard to understand is it?

Edwards has not been scrutinized as Dean has

Clark "
Gep "
Kerry "

What's so hard to comprehend?

[Maddy McCall]

39. Less focus on Dean? Most candidates love media attention, good or bad

Less focus on Dean? What ELSE does he have to hide?

[mzmolly]

42. Well good the others will have time to bask in the media LOVE for a while

I won't take the bait aka question above. :hi:

[ginchinchili]

60. Do you mind explain the Trippi quote to me?

"If these guys can't beat us, how the hell are they going to beat George Bush, Karl Rove, and $200 million?" Joe Trippi

Is this supposed to be humorous?

[ginchinchili]

59. I've noticed that too. It's silly.

It's like arguing that being up to your neck in quicksand is really a good thing. lol

[elixir]

37. From the south, military and strong on defense, no political baggage=win

[mzmolly]

44. There's plenty of baggage on Clark. Just wait and see....

It's coming. Hopefully it will come out before the GE and not when he competes with Bush.

[ginchinchili]

61. If you're going to make a charge, back it up.

What good would it be for me to argue that you shouldn't support Howard Dean because there is going to be a lot of negative stuff coming out on him? Stick with the facts. And the fact is, Dean has far more baggage than Clark. Dean has no military or foreign policy experience. The Yankee Nuclear Power Plant in Vermont was rated the least secure nuclear facility in the United States while Dean was governor. We are involved in 3 unconventional wars: Iraq, Afghanistan and the war on terrorism. What are you people thinking? Talk about baggage. Dean's mouth alone will sink him.

[windansea]

3. Kerry or Gep 1st & 2nd

Dean 3rd

me=happy

Clark upset in NH=me :bounce:

[Bombtrack]

4. That's really sad that one could be so practically deluded

in regards to the infallable Dean, to call him not winning Iowa "good for him".

No I'm not calling YOU deluded as a person, I just think you're overrationalizing about Dean.

Not everything about him about everything that happens to him is "good".

[mzmolly]

10. Trust me, it's good for Dean either way. I'm already lovin it.

I can't wait to see the media have to focus on all the candidates. I can't wait to see the candidates have to focus on one another, I can't wait to see Dean get a break so he has time to regroup while the others are dooking it out, then he can and come back big.
I can't wait until people take a cold hard honest look at some of the front runners in this race.

I don't know what the Dean bashers will do with them selves when the pundits have to critique someone else. AAAAHHHH... ;)

[AP]

15. But that's what's happening now. Now people are getting a look at all the

candidates, and they're seeing things they like in candidates other than Dean. Dean isn't being ignored now. For the first time he's being compared to the other candidates.

Dean has been running against Bush and Aschcroft for a year. People like him better than Bush. That's an EASY battle to win.

Now, for the first time in a year, he's running against the other candidates, and he's not doing as well.

[mzmolly]

26. People have not gotten an HONEST look at anyone but Dean, and that

look was tainted by smear tactics from the ADB movement. I predict that movement will be crumbling soon as the other candidates will have to dig dish on one another.

I am delighted with the tightening of the race.

[AP]

62. Edwards has trippled his support because of the look people have gotten in

the last two weeks.

[returnable]

51. self-deleted

:hi:

[AP]

11. Trippi is saying the same thing. Just read in another post that he thinks

it will get people really motivated on the ground if Dean loses.

Either he's trying to make lemonade out of lemons, or he's lowering expectations so a Dean win looks like a triumph.

I think Dean's in trouble if he loses IA.

If Kerry wins, he'll go to NH with people thinking that it's between him and Clark. Dean risks third. He'll be fighting with Edwards for 3rd.

[mzmolly]

23. The winner of the Iowa Primary hasn't won an election since 1972

Iowa widdles down the race. 1,2,3rd are all strong positions to be in. Think about it, Clark didn't even campaign in Iowa. No one considers him out of the running.

I look forward to someone else being bloodied for a while. I'll pull up my chair, grab a *latte* and enjoy ;)

[AP]

31. Has the person who was the front runner for 9 months before IA, who

then lost IA, come back for a victory?

I honestly don't know the answer, but I've never seen the media and a candidate's supporter treat a candidate the way they've treated Dean. Everyone has been acting like IA was in the bag for Dean. Now, saying that the winner of IA doesn't win the nomination makes sense if you're describing Pat Robertson. But Dean is the "Pat Robertson" of this race -- not in the political philosophy sense, but in the sense that he's been portrayed as the one with all the organization, and the passionate base who was going to shine in IA because he's the kind of guy who goes in a wins a caucus-style primary.

[mzmolly]

35. The media has trashed Dean to kingdome come. I've never seen a media

lashing like that with the exception of Bill Clinton.

The fact that Dean is still standing is a victory after the dirty politics and trash media that others have pulled.

Take last week with Sharptons little revenge slash. It was all over the media. The media didn't bother to inform people that 1. Dean had only 6 cabinet positions, and 2. he offered minorities positions in his cabinet. They wanted ratings and smear, they got it.

It may have hurt Dean in the short term, but I don't think there will be many surprises related to Dean going forward.

Now as for the rest of the candidates, I look ahead and await the media spotlight as it's shone on someone elses shit for a change.

[AP]

63. I'll take your word for it. However, I'd note that there was a claim

here that NPR trashed Dean two or three days ago. I argued here that there were four stories about the campaign on ATC that day. Two FEATURED Dean (one was about the use of the internet). A third discussed Dean looking tired and talked about him being attacked but NOT ONCE did they mention at any time on NPR what the substance of the attackes were. The only story which didn't mention Dean was a ONE MINUTE piece which simply played Edwards, Kucinich and one other candidates quotes without any discussion or commentary -- ie, it was a piece which allowed NPR to claim they covered everyone after spending about 12-15 minutes in three other pieces discussing Dean.

[Kukla]

6. If we look to past history, yes.

Iowa has historically become a momentum builder for those who do well, and I believe this is just the sort of thing the Kerry candidacy would need in New Hampshire.

[janx]

12. Iowa certainly sets the pace, yes.

That caucus process has been known to propell a candidate out of the gates.

[Tom Rinaldo]

9. Yes and No

The cleanest path to a Clark Nomination would be to have the air slowly leak out of Dean's balloon (just a metaphor folks, Dean has real support, no slur intended), with no Democrat other than Clark showing strong momentum up. A Kerry win in Iowa would muddy that scenario.

On the other hand, a Kerry win in Iowa would virtually assure that the nomination could not be locked up by Dean early in the game. Clark has a substantial real base of support and ample money to continue his campaign. In some ways a long campaign better positions Clark to emerge as the Democratic Party unity candidate, should either Kerry or Dean falter.

[janx]

13. Yes but some people in NH might take a second look at Kerry

should he win in Iowa.

[Tom Rinaldo]

18. Agreed. I was factoring that in.

All along the real minimum requirement for Clark in NH was a strong third place finish behind Dean and Kerry. If Clark came in a solid third, he would then overall have to whup Kerry on Feb. 3rd, or risk being passed by Kerry. However it is a very reasonable scenario that Clark would still beat Kerry in most of those states. It all could make for a long campaign season.

[mzmolly]

17. The only problem with your later scenario Tom is that

Clark hasn't been examined to the extent that the others have. Once that happens, I don't think he can hold up.

The baggage I've seen on Clark is phenominal. This is just my opinion. But this guy will turn off alot of people once they get past his shiny *image* and read some of his quotes on the war etc..

I don't think he'll hold up under media scrutiny like Kerry and the others will. JMHO

The Stop Dean Movement, if they were successful, may have been Clarks worst nightmare.

[Tom Rinaldo]

20. An honest disagreement then

I disagree with your assessment. I think Clark will hold up well. He turned around his campaign, after the huge drop off after he initially announced, once he started showing people, like he did on Meet The Press, that he can well defend himself.

Probably we differ on how solid the baggage you refer to is.

[mzmolly]

25. I'm sure we differ on how solid the baggage is, but we couldn't possibly

differ on the fact that the media has by and large ignored it up till now.

When it comes to a head, many voters will question Clark and turn elsewhere. Just my opinion.

[Tom Rinaldo]

28. The media had a one month feeding frenzy on Clark's "baggage"

During October into November. Clark couldn't open his mouth to talk about anything anywhere without first having to talk about Admiral Shelton, to state one obvious example. And it's not like his early Iraq related chat "mistatement" with the NY Times reporter didn't have "legs".

Lately they haven't gone hard on Clark, I agree.

[returnable]

48. Perhaps...

...but this is where the "Dean peaked too soon" argument comes into play.

It was never an issue of whether or not Dean's core support would waiver; it was the issue of spending several months in the front-runner's seat would cost him the undecideds.

Recent polls have suggested that's been the case.

Now, if another frontrunner should emerge, be it Kerry or Clark or whomever, they will have to deal with greater scrutiny.

That's true.

But here's the catch:

By the time another front runner emerges, he will already have actual delegate votes in the bag. The primaries are upon us now. The media will be focused on the results as much as the back stories.

Dean took his hits when his lead was titular only, and there was nothing else to discuss.

A frontrunner in February, with primary results as part of that "baggage", is a different animal from a frontrunner in December with nothing but his rhetoric.

[elixir]

41. The only problem with your last scenario MZ is that people are now

looking at Clark and that's why he's surging in the polls. As more light is shed on Clark the public sees a democrat, yes, democrat, who can come in second in NH (maybe first!), carry the south and beat GWB in the debates. Don't forget that there's a lot of democratic 527 money out there just waiting for a candidate. Whoever that candidate is, George Soros and other 527 monies are going to back that person to beat GWB.

[Kukla]

24. Don't count Edwards out, either.

If polls mean antyhing to you right now, you will notice that three of the top four candidates in Iowa right now supported the Iraq War Resolution. I think that's a powerful message to the Democratic Party.

[janx]

27. We can't afford to count anybody out at this point.

Things are still far too fluid.

[Tom Rinaldo]

49. I don't count Edwards out

And I like Edwards. I just think he is more of a long shot because he gets squeezed by Clark both for the Southern vote and for support from those who appreciate positive campaigns, and on the other hand by our Congressional Democratic (Washington Politicians) candidates for assorted reasons. Plus Edwards is far behind Clark in National polls, behind him in state polls, and well behind him in fund raising. Therefor I think Edwards won't be a finalist.

[deminflorida]

14. I don't think Iowa is going to have that big of an effect on N.H.

those people are pretty independent minded folks who are looking for the guy that has the best chance in beating G.W. Bush. They know if they pick the wrong person, it could possibly reflect poorly on their importance as an early primary state.

On the other hand and in support of the above statement, a Dean loss in Iowa would make him look vulnerable as a front-runner (if he ever is one) in the general election. The question they'll probably be asking is how can a guy with a double digit lead, lose the primary and fall behind in the national polls. Look at it like football, as close as the general election is predicted to be, is this the guy we want running with the ball?

[mzmolly]

30. Actually your later scenario is incorrect based on history

as I've said here, the Iowa Primary winner has rarely gone on to win an election.

Iowa is about widdling down our choices, not choosing a President. Additionally, races always tighten up in the end when the undecideds choose a candidate. Also, Dean has been smeared in the press and by the other candidates in the ABD movment to such an extent I'm surprised he's still in this race at all.

The other candidates have been allowed to skate. But, not for long :)

[Maddy McCall]

16. Sweet lemons :-)

[mzmolly]

19. Make Lemonade

;) Damn right it's sweet!

[bigwillq]

21. Don't think anyone's chances will be hurt

If Kerry wins in Iowa, he's still third in NH. I don't think Clark is going to move down from 2nd in NH if Kerry wins Iowa. But at this point it's too close.

[deminflorida]

34. I think the real surprise will come if Clark beats both Dean and Kerry in

N.H.

It's looking very, very possible right now....

with Dean pulling this Carter stunt this weekend, that's nothing more than an invitation for Clinton to go walking around or appearing with Clark if he really does support him.

That could be a ground-shaker period, and could give Clark a huge upset opportunity in N.H.

The DLC I read somewhere want's this thing over by March. Well that would probably end it.

[elixir]

45. Have you heard anything concrete?

I heard that Clinton staffers are appearing w/ Clark but nothing about Clinton himself. Although I'm for Clark, I don't want Clinton to enter until the picture until a clear frontrunner appears.

:think:

[mzmolly]

52. Clarks been putting all his eggs in the NH basket, I'm not surprised

he's doing well their. The other candidates have been in Iowa. They'll catch up.

[ginchinchili]

57. Who'll Catch Up and How? Dean is slipping in both Iowa and N.H.

Dean can't afford to lose Iowa. If he does then Clark will probably catch up to him in New Hampshire, maybe even pass him. Clark is on his way to doing that even if Dean wins Iowa. Dean is running the risk of losing the expections game in Iowa. If that happens it could mark the beginning of the end for Dean.

[Bucky]

47. Yep, probably. Tactically, tho, it mostly weakens Dean & helps Kerry.

I still think Clark's fortunes aren't tied to Kerry's performance. But Kerry surging could make it harder for Clark to come to the front.

If Dean does come in second, or even third, in Iowa, get ready to see some really nasty stuff. If he's beat, he's been beat by negativity from other candidates almost as much as his impulsive word choices.

[ginchinchili]

58. I Agree. Kerry Will Only Make Clark Have To Work A Little Harder

A win for Kerry in Iowa will give him some momentum, but it won't necessarily interfere with Clark's. In fact, a Kerry win in Iowa will mostly hurt Dean and the people Dean loses in New Hampshire because of it are more likely to go to Clark than Kerry. They like Dean because he's new, refreshing and strongly against the Iraq war. Clark fits that same description. Kerry, although qualified, is too much an old school Washington politician. People want an Arnold with credentials.

[TacticalPeek]

50. I presume the Kerry IA win spec is based on recent polls.

Personally, I find polls with big, rapid swings likely to contain artifact, and of minimal value.

Obviously, IA candidates who exceed expectations will be helped, likely hurting those who don't.

And any non-Dean candidates who exceed in IA will potentially contribute to the lengthening of the drama, which, presuming Dean's front-runner status, must fairly be considered a negative for Dean, as it would for any front-runner.

A more fertile field of speculation might be about the 'losers' in IA: those not meeting expectations, or meeting generally accepted low expectations. On-going viability questions thus raised make one wonder where their supporters might begin to look for another horse.

[ginchinchili]

53. LYING TO YOURSELF WON'T HELP YOUR CANDIDATE

"If Dean doesn't win Iowa, it could be good news for Dean..." I'm sorry, but that's ridiculous. Then what is Dean doing campaigning in Iowa if it's going to be good for him to lose? LOL

When Dean loses in Iowa, he loses the expectations game and, therefore, the momentum. All Clark would have to do is tie Dean in New Hampshire and that's it for Dean. And that's the way the polls are trending. And if Dean loses Iowa, Clark will probably catch Dean in New Hampshire. Dean can't afford to lose Iowa.

[adam gibson]

55. Clark and Madonna

It doesn't matter if Clark wins Iowa , he is winning Hollywood. When the country sees that celebreties are lining up behind our man issues won't matter. He went to her house and spent several hours courting her endorsement. She must be very important to him. America follows celebrity. He needs Monica Lewinsky's backing, does anybody know who she will (did) endorse? If the Democrats lose this election will she back Hillary in 2008? (See this link for the lowdown on Clark-Madonna.)

http://www.angelfire.com/comics/adamgibson
http://www.angelfire.lycos.com/comics/adamgibson

[goodhue]

64. yes but

Kerry will not win Iowa