2000: If Carnahan had lived would he have beaten Ashcroft?

[displacedyankeedem]

In the 2000 Election between Carnahan and Ashcroft, what were Carnahan's polling numbers like before he died in that horriffic plane crash? Was it looking like he was going to beat Ashcroft or not? Finally, was there a more capable last minute replacement than his wife, Jean?

[flamingyouth]

1. Yes

I believe he would have if he had lived.

After all, he beat him even after he had died.

[lcordero]

2. He beat Ashcroft AFTER he died

[w13rd0]

3. It was a dirty campaign...

...but Carnahan was polling ahead. Was there a more capable replacement? Not in time. I still see "I'm still for Mel" bumper stickers all over...

[SyracuseDemocrat]

4. A more capable replacement?

Dick Gephardt. :)

[demgrrrll]

5. I worked on the campaign and I believe that he would have won.

We were stuffing envelopes one night and one of the major 3 (I think CBS) filmed us working away into the night. They seemed amazed at the number of people who had volunteered to assist the campaign. It was an experience I will never forget. Worked 12 hours on election day too making sure that the pubs did not close polls. We had to get one open that had completely closed for a "lunch breaK". Can you believe that? I ended the evening at another poll with specific instructions to make sure they did not try and go home early. Unbelievable day and night, I'd wager we don't know the half of what went on across the country.

[DieboldMustDie]

6. I almost wish Ashcroft had won.

He'd do less harm in the senate than as A.G.

[jos]

7. Unlikely

He was trailing at the time and, obviously, there would be no sympathy vote.

[raleighdemocrat88]

12. Agreed

And Jean Carnahan would have been re-elected to the rest of her husband's term if Karl Rove didn't send Bush in to give Talent the edge.

[mndemocrat_29]

8. Carnahan would've won

As would've Paul Wellstone. Both were starting to poll ahead of their competitors. Wellstone was very well-loved in Minnesota, and Carnahan was also well-loved in Missouri. Plus, in 2000, the Democrats were having a major congressional wave (Carper, Stabenow, Dayton, Cantwell, and nearly Schweitzer won also)

[NewJerseyDem]

9. I'm not sure

In a CNN.com article it said that Ashcroft had been leading in the polls prior to Carnahan's death, but it didn't provide any numbers. It probably would have been close.

[coloradodem]

10. Would have mirrored other recent statewide races

Talent beat Jean by like 23,000 votes and I believe Holden beat Talent by a similar margin. I believe Ashcroft a a very slight lead but the polls were bouncing back and forth. I have heard from some who live in Missouri that felt Ashcroft had the momentum and would eek out a victory. Who knows, but it still breaks my heart that such a good man as Mel Carnahan was is gone. He would have made a great senator.

[dolstein]

11. Anyone who gives you a definitve answer is lying

Sorry, but there's no way to answer that question yes or no. Ashcroft and Carnahan were neck and neck in the polls, as they had been throughout much of the campaign. It's possible that Carnahan could have won. Then again, it's possible Ashcroft could have won. The only honest and accurate answer is that we simply don't know, and obviously will NEVER know.

The same goes for all the Wellstone-Coleman "what if's".