Would Trafficant pull votes from a Democrat or from Bush?

[zorkpolitics]

If Trafficant runs as an indepdendent (maybe on the Constituional Party line) Who would he hurt? Although he was a Democratic Congressman, I can't figure out who he would appeal to?
Even in jail he polled 15% of the vote in 2002 Congressional race, so he has some sort of wacky appeal.
Third parties could be important becuase Gore won 4 states in 2000 by less than 7000 votes each, while Bush "won" FL and NH by less than 7500 votes total.
So every third part candidate (not just Nader!) could "tip" a close election. Any guesses if Trafficant would help or hurt the Democratic candidate?

[goobergunch]

1. He only got 15% in the Congressional race because people knew him

I doubt he'd have much impact in a Presidential race.

[jfxgillis]

2. He would take ...

... almost his votes from the Bush or leans-Bush column.

Traficant is another version of Perot. Nativist, Protectionist, etc.

Even if he got just 1% he would bleed Bush of potentially critical votes in a 50/50 election. If Traficant got 5% of the vote in strongly protectionist states, he'd swing, for example, Louisiana, to the Dems.

[Ediacara]

3. He would

pull votes from no one. He would be a 5th tier third party candidate.

[carpetbagger]

4. My guess is Bush.

He could pull about .7% in WV, which would probably be .5% from Bush and .2% from the dem. In Ohio, it would be about 1% or so, and in PA about .3%, all with the same numbers. I don't think he's have any pull outside those states.

Any help in PA would be greatly appreciated. If we lose PA, we lose the election, and right now it's Bush's state to lose.

[GOPBasher]

5. I don't think it'd really matter,

since he'd barely get any votes at all.

[Booberdawg]

6. From Bush

Since he is a criminal and a nutcase he would pull votes from the right.

[w4rma]

7. He voted with the Republicans while in Congress

He even voted for a Republican House Majority leader.

The (~0.1%) votes will come from disenchanted former Bush voters.

[CMT]

8. he wouldn't get many votes period

eom.