NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll & Ipsos-Reid/Cook Political Poll

[Nicholas_J]

Place Kerry in either first or second place in national polling:

Ipsos-Reid/Cook Political Report Poll. July 22-24, 2003. N=266 likely Democratic presidential primary/caucus voters nationwide. MoE ± 6.5.

.

"It is early, but if you had to choose today, which ONE of the following eight candidates would you be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president? . . ."

7/03 5/03 4/03 2/03
% % % %
John Kerry 20 15 19 18
Joe Lieberman 14 18 14 18
Richard Gephardt 14 14 14 15
Howard Dean 12 7 6 4
John Edwards 6 9 10 10
Carol Moseley Braun 3 3 4 3
Bob Graham 3 8 6 5
Al Sharpton 3 5 4 5
Hillary Rodham Clinton
(vol.) 2 3 1 2
Other/None/Not sure 23 18 22 20


NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Robert Teeter (R). July 26-28, 2003. Asked of Democrats, and non-Democrats who said they would vote in a Democratic presidential primary.
.

"Let me mention some people who might seek the Democratic nomination for president in 2004. If the next Democratic primary for president were being held today, for which one of the following candidates would you vote: ?" If "Not sure," ask: "Well, which way do you lean?"

7/03 5/03 4/03 1/03
% % % %
Joe Lieberman 25 21 19 25
John Kerry 14 17 13 14
Howard Dean 12 3 3 3
Richard Gephardt 11 16 14 17
Carol Moseley Braun 5 4 4 n/a
John Edwards 4 5 4 7
Bob Graham 4 4 3 6
Al Sharpton 3 2 2 2
Dennis Kucinich 2 1 n/a n/a
None (vol.) 7 6 14 5
Other (vol.) - 1 1 1
Not sure 14 21 23 20


www.pollingreport.com


Must be Kerry's "French Look" doing it for Ipsos, as they are a Paris based company, and have a world wide reputation for polling accuracy.

[bluestateguy]

1. Lieberman is propped up by name recognition

Nothing more. Otherwise he'd be long gone by now.

[Nicholas_J]

3. With the latest time magazine

This name recognition excuse is long over with.
It ls largely being used as a rationalization among Dean supporters as the reaon why Dean has not "CAUGHT FIRE" and taen a large lead.

Fact is, with 3/4 of the rime magazine online poll as stating that Dean is most likely to be the nomination( which means either thr poll was DEANIED, by Dean supporters, or that Dean has SIGNIFICANT name recognition) and in the CBS recognition poll, Dean had the same level of recognition as ALL of the other candidates within statistical margins of error, with Dean actually scoring opne point higher than Lieberman, and equal with Kerry. makes this Dean rationalization simply an excuse to preface the other Deanie argument "When everyone gets to know Dean, his support will massively swell" an aged and dying campaign cliche.

I have predicted for months that Dean's support will peak and then finally start falling after the summer recess of Congress, and the Congressional candidates start campaigning HARD, andv the DLC begins to starts sugesting which candidates whould begin to drop out and who they should throw their support behind, or to recommend that ALL stay in the cmpaign and at the Very last moment, with no plurality for any one candidate, the party will decide who gets the nomiination, With polls showing Kerry placed in the upper middle somewherem but also showing him havinf the BEST chance of taking out Bush. The party will end up deciding the best strategy to put democrats back into power. The best wat to ensure that a Democrat wins is to take Dean out.

[ProfessorPlum]

5. Um, no thanks for the interpretation

It looks like Dean is enjoying good growth in his support, as is Kerry. Good news all around.

[Nicholas_J]

12. Well regardless

That name recognitio argument is as old as a knock knock joke. Dean is recognized, very regognized, and the argument just doenst hold water anymore.

Time magazine rarely puts an unrecognized person on their cover.

[ProfessorPlum]

16. I wasn't making an argument about name recognition, either.

But I think you have to admit that even though a lot of hard core political junkies know who he is, that still is a pretty small proportion of the population at large.

I just spent Saturday evening talking to some friends. They are pretty tied in to what an idiot Bush is, and fairly politically aware. I told them I thought Dean or Kerry would be the eventual nominee. They asked me who both of them were.

So I think they both have a ways to go as far as total media saturation goes, if you know what I mean.

However, if it is your contention that Dean has already appealed to everyone he is ever going to appeal to, then maybe you are right. I kind of doubt it, though.

[Nicholas_J]

25. The contention is

That among the undecided, the decisions are likely to take the same shape and profile of those who have already decided. In most situations the undecided are generally waiting to determine who has the greatest chance of winning, rather than discovering the platforms of the guys who are running. That is usuually wjhat the undecidedcare waiting for to decide. For the most part, a large percentage of them already have heard what Dean says, what Kucinich has said, or Kerry, and are waiting for the DLC to decide who they think can beat Bush. Fo the most part, the greatest percentage of voters in both parties simply vote the straight party line. Even though that has changes to a degree, Deans message does not seem to resonate with the majority of voters. 2/3rds of whom have decided to vote with candidates who are DLC candidates, and not those who have attacked the party mainstream. Even those who are not of those who are not DLC members, 2 were (Dean and Mosely Braun) and Mosely Braun is not fighting the DLC platform, but is firmly behind it.

Sharpton is going to use his influence to garner the most support for his black constituency, and he has nothing to gain by supporting Dean, who has a record of cutting the programs that a larger percentage of blacks rely on than whites (as a percentage of each individual population) Blacks are unemployed at higher rates during unemployment, are victimized by a white dominated society more, are subject to higher rates of drug problems, and so in greater need of the kinds of programs Dean has either cut or totally opposed.

Blacks also suffer from being one of the larger groups without health insurance benefits from te places they do get work, so Deans retreat on immediate health care, and his prefernce for an incremental approach, will not win him the aduilation of minorities either. It seems Dean has decided to stake everything on his youth vote and the support of the very wealthy health corporation who back him.
AS soon as the DLC selects ONE candidate to back fully, then those who vote straght doen the party line, will go for whoever the DLC names most able to beat bush. Statistics indicate that voters older than fifty vote to win, rather than on campaign platforms. And those older than fifty support the DLC platform at a rate that is 600 percent higher than those who support Deans anti-dlc rhetoric.

In the end, party strategy and tactic will take Dean out, as somone who is too devoted to his own ego and ambition, than to the principals of the Democratic party over the principles od Republicanism and Fiscal COnservatism, to which Dean gives allegence.
Within a few months expect to see the party and the media beginning to draw a line between "Fiscal Conservatism". and "Fiscal Responsibility" and then pointing out Deans allegence to Republican ideals and not Democratic ones. From the candidates, and the candidates being supported in this stance by the DLC.

Again expect Dean record as governor to be discussed. His attempts to keep that record sealed are going to be made an issue of by both Democrats and Republicans. No one will care about Bush's records as Governor, as both sides already know what his record as President is, they wither like him or do not like him. If Dena refuses to ope the record, a great deal will be made of him being the only candidate without an open public record. The DLC will not rush to defend him, and Dean may end up spending a great deal of campaign fubnding trying to take Vermont Republicans to court to try to keep them from passing legislation to require all governors records to be opened if the try to run for national office. Thatr is a state right, and Dean was stupid enough not to fight to keep a Democratic Governor in control after he left office. He did not campaign for the democrats at all, but let republicans steamroller over the state of Vermont. HE will very likely pay for that lack or strategical lack of keeping his back covered.

[ProfessorPlum]

26. Whatever

I think you are WAY overestimating the number of people who are paying attention to this right now. You would probably be surprised at the number of people who couldn't name ANY of the Democratic nominees.

And for the love of Pete, it's Dean, not Dena! :)

edited to add smiley face, since you haven't responded to any of my "Dena" jokes so far.

[w4rma]

6. This poll was taken over a week *before* Dean was published on the cover

of Time and Newsweek.

Also Dean's polling numbers in the states he's been pooring the most money into, Iowa and New Hampshire, put him tied for or in the lead.

[CMT]

18. your dislike of Dean makes you lose your objectivity

Dean is gaining in the polls. In Ispos/Reid and NBC--so is Kerry in Ispos-Reid and Lieberman in NBC. Dean has gone from 3% to 12% a very solid showing. In Key states like Iowa, he has taken the lead in the most recent (yesterday) respected Des Moines Register Poll. He and Kerry are neck and neck in NH, and Dean is gaining in California and tied for the lead there. In virtually every state he is showing progress. It is not about who is leading nationally at this point it is who has momentum and is showing progress and by every measure Dean is doing this. I disagree with you that he will suddenly collapse.

By the way here is the headline for the most recent Ipsos-Reid poll which you site:
http://www.ipsosreid.com/media/index.cfm
DEAN GAINING SUPPORT FOR DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION.

[dsc]

19. MOE matters all the time

not just when it is convenient for your case. Kerry is actually tied for first with Lieberman in the first poll and for second with several candidates in the second using the standard you use in your post. Funny how you neglected that standard in your original post. Oversight I guess.

[Nicholas_J]

58. SAme thing in the Zogby poll

With Dean, Lieberman and Gephardt at 12 percent, and Kerry at 9 percent. within the MOE, this places Kerry alongside of the others.

Again, looking at the entire poll and hoew the pollsters interpret them is VERY important for example:

Poll: Kerry has N.H. edge: Dems see senator as `electable'

by David R. Guarino
Sunday, July 27, 2003


Vaulted into the top tier of Democratic presidential hopefuls by his tough, anti-war rhetoric, Howard Dean still can't convince New Hampshire voters he can beat President Bush, a new Boston Sunday Herald poll shows.


Democratic primary voters in the Herald poll put Dean, the former Vermont governor, and U.S. Sen. John F. Kerry of Massachusetts in a deadlocked race for the first-in-the-nation primary - set for six months from today.

Voters say Kerry, boosted by strong foreign-policy credentials, is far better equipped to reclaim the White House, the poll shows.

``Although the Dean message is a popular one, Kerry is perceived as having more experience in foreign policy and is seen as more electable,'' said Herald pollster R. Kelly Myers.

Forty-four percent of voters say Kerry is more electable than Dean - only 17 percent say Dean has a better shot against Bush, the poll found.

Yet look at the numbers most people look at in the poll:

In the Herald poll of likely New Hampshire primary voters, Dean takes 28 percent of the vote and Kerry 25 percent while a second tier of candidates lagged behind, U.S. Sen. Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut at 11 percent and U.S. Rep. Richard Gephardt (D-Mo.) at 9 percent.

Dean has a slighly higher percentage of voters (within the MoE)
But the pollster direcly interprets the data as giving Kerry the lead.

And more an more aerticles are indicating that voters are rethinking thier choices to electablity, rather than likability, now that there appears to be a chance that Bush COULD lose.

[ProfessorPlum]

20. Yeah man, let go of your hate

come over to the light side.

[CMT]

34. I could just as well show you the newest poll from Iowa

where Dean has surged to first and Kerry has lost support and is in third place. The national numbers won't count for as much as the early primary states. If Iowa goes for Dean (and admittedly it is early) it will impact NH and if he wins NH it will impact many states. Sorry, Nicholas but Dean is in this for the long haul--I'm not saying he will get it on a silver platter but he will be one of the top finishers and has as good of a chance as Kerry as being the next nominee.

[Nicholas_J]

37. Sorry

When you take all of the polls as a whole and project them into the next three months. Deans figures do not hold up to the other candidates. I read the Ipsos article about Dean FINALLY becoming a contender, yet they do not place him in the lead, or even give jhim a chance, THe Guardian in the U.K. is indicating that the current supporters of individuals are now giving it all a rethink, as trhey do not want to choose somone who cannot beat Bush, now that Bush looks beatable. And all of the polls place Kerry, not Dean as the person most likelel;y to be able to beat Bush.
There is not one scientific poll that places Deans the fronrunner as a potential competition for Bush. By December Deans failure to poll high enough to beat Bush will end up lowering his overall polling.

Even the N.H. poll that has Dena at his highest numbers ever, above Kerry's still states that Kerry will beat Dean in New Hampshire, as all of the undecided people are undecided becasue they want to select who can BEAT Bush. ANd that same poll states Dean will give Bush a landslide.

[UnapologeticLiberal]

51. I'll stop using the name recognition excuse when it stops applying

When we go out in Philly to table and flyer, I am always amazed that almost everyone we give stuff to seems not to be at all familiar. Even in Haddonfield, NJ, which is an upscale, educated town, many, many people did not know who he was.

I will concede that name recognition is not as much of an issue in New Hampshire as it used to be. I was there this weekend, and unlike the last time I was there, right before the declaration on June 23rd, most people whose doors I knocked on seemed to at least have heard his name, though many still knew very little about him.

[ProfessorPlum]

2. Thanks for the information, Nicholas.

.

[Nicholas_J]

10. Ipsos cook reid

IS a company based in Paris, but has North American operations

Perhaps all of that talk about Kerry looking French has an effect(lol, only AMericans were polled, but those French are damend good at statistics, after all Pascal wrote all of his statistical theory because he was a gambler, and the french have been at the forefront of statistics and polls ever since)

[ProfessorPlum]

11. Okaaay . . .

I never said it wasn't. I was just thanking you for posting the results. Thanks.

[SharonAnn]

4. Does the Wall Street Journal connection mean they really want

a Republican and Lieberman is the closest to it?

[Nicholas_J]

14. Notice

How they ignore the NBC connection to the poll.

Sorry, you cant spin this into a Wall Steet Journal is a republican paper job.

THe poll was accurate, and the pollster well known.

[dusty64]

7. I wonder why Graham's

support has fallen. You'd think he'd be doing better considering his not letting the regime off the hook and getting more media exposure.

[Nicholas_J]

13. I like Bob Graham

He was a Really good governor for my state, and a great senator for it. I know him fairly well, impersonally, and had to work with him and train him for one of his work days.

His health has really turned him into a shadow of the political steamroller he could have been at the national level a few elections ago, and even now, in FLorida, he is so beleoved that he could run for any office he chose, with NO opposition.

I beleive that George S. hit it on the head in South Carolina, when he stated Graham was really running for V.P.
I think that is already sewn up between him and Kerry. Dean will begin to support Kerry later, and Graham will run as his V.P. It is just a matter of crushing Dean, and Dean will be hit hear, ad heavily by Republicans. the DLC, the other candidates, and people like John McCain, who will go after Dean for the good of Bush as well as to help his old democratic friends. Probably more to help Kerry, than to help Bush.

Graham is not just popular in FLorida, but is pretty much one of the grand old men of the Souther Democrats. He is as highly respected in Georgia and Alabama as well among dems.

[ProfessorPlum]

17. people from Florida really do love him

and I've been really impressed with him these days myself. He would definitely be an asset in any ticket, at the top or bottom.

[Nicholas_J]

21. I feel so bad watching him

As his voice seems so weak and Graham used to be a powerful speaker. In Iowa his voiced seemed a bit weak and he didnt stay on topic as well as he used to. But he is sharp as a tack intellectually. I do think he wants to end his political career as VP, as he has decided to not run for senate. again.

[ProfessorPlum]

22. has he been sick?

He has added so much important dialogue to the race when he is speaking about the security issues - I love the fact that he is using his platform as a presidential candidate to really drive the issues and public discussion. He has been a real asset to the race.

[Nicholas_J]

27. You dont remember

His open heart surgery just a month before declaring for president?


Graham undergoes heart surgery
'Full recovery' expected
Friday, January 31, 2003 Posted: 4:04 PM EST (2104 GMT)
Sen. Bob Graham





WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Sen. Bob Graham of Florida, a possible contender for the Democratic 2004 nomination for president, underwent surgery Friday to replace a deteriorating heart valve. Doctors described the surgery as a success.

"Senator Graham's surgery went well and was an uncomplicated procedure ... We anticipate a full recovery," Dr. John Eisold, the attending physician for members of Congress, said in a statement released by Graham's office...

he surgery involved replacing Graham's aortic valve with a "bioprosthesis," a valve from a cow.

http://us.cnn.com/2003/ALLPOLITICS/01/31/graham.heart/

Aortic problems are bad. I was once told tat there was an aortic murmer in my heart that indicated a prolapsing aorta by an idiot HMO physician, who said it could cause momentary death if it prolapsed and then made me wait two weeks fot the first appointmtny they could arragen with a cardioligist...Why I really hate managed health care, and even more dislike Deans total reliace on the health care industry for his plan.

Talks about fear when a doctor tells you you may have a condition that could suddenly kill you in ten seconds, and then makes you wait for weeks to find out what is wrong. FOrtunately, the cariologist said the so called murmur was a ling noise, said my heath and aorta were fine, and said I would live to be 100 if I found a another doctor.

Graham has frigging brass balls to be running so soon after an aortic replacement. The campaign could easily kill him. The grief of seeing Jeb Bush beat Lawton Chiles chosen successor killed Chiles less than a month after after Bush's win was announced.

Chiles was another grteat governor and congresperson from this state. I met him once at a founders day program for the city I ran a library in, and after we were introduced, in public, he made a point to sneak off from the crowds and come in to sit in my office in the library and just talk. Whenever he was in the area he made it a point to stop by and say hello. Graham is much the same kind of guy. But he is very ill and this campign is likley to kill him, If he makes it, he deserves the VP slot.

[ProfessorPlum]

29. Jesus, that's right

thanks for the reminder. He's got a lot of heart (no pun intended) to continue the way he is going. Has he been stronger lately? I can imagine the grief of seeing Jeb running roughshod over Florida is very maddening for him.

[Nicholas_J]

31. No

I watch him closely. During His speech about the 9/11 intelligence fiasco this weekend on C-SPAN he could hardly be heard, Then someon had the good sense to crank the mikes up high and he could be heard again.

[ProfessorPlum]

32. Let's hope Robertson doesn't issue a fatwa on him

for God to "lay his hand heavily on him". I hope he is going to be ok.

[JohnKleeb]

8. right now for Kucinich but keep in mind

That I do like Kerry, and he represents me best out of all those who supposely have a chance. I still like DK but if he has to withdraw, then I will go Kerry.

[tsipple]

9. There's Only One Thing Growing in Those Polls...

Very interesting. Thanks for the summary.

[CMT]

15. good grief, Dean has gone from 3% to 12% in NBC Poll

That is what I call momentum.

[Nicholas_J]

30. Deans momentum

In selection seems to be momonetary. In most poll, if you include his momonetm within the marging of error in the polls his momoentum is small, and not really greater than the momnoneum of other candidates.
That is the problem with interpreting PARTS of poll and not all elements within the polls.

And thne, one has to look at all polls and then considere what they are all saying togethther. No matter what Dean momnetum seems to be, it is not that great when considereing the margins of error in the polls, and when one considered electability, Dean is blown away by all of the other major candidates. Kerry is places as the candidate with the MOST potential of beating Bush in the top contenders. Dean is the one Bush is seen as beating with the greatest ease.
Kerry's advangae over Dean in competetion with bush rund to Kerry having a 200 to 350 percent better chance of beating Bush than Liberman, Gephardt or Dean.


All pollsters have stated that if the Democrats want to actually win in 2004, Kerry is the man to do it.

[ProfessorPlum]

33. We'll just see about that

but it will be a win/win situation for us.

[Nicholas_J]

36. Not really read the thread from the Guardian (U.K.) I just posted

Where now that Dems think their is a chance of beating Bush, DEmos are beginniing to rethink their choice from listening to a persons campiagns to wanting to actually select the candidate who is seen as most being able to beat Bush. Most polls are moving to indicate that this is Kerry, not Dean. Tough the artticle doesnt indicate this, all of the polls do. Kerry outlkclasses and out polls every other candidates on electability and most recent N.H. polls place Kerry in multiples beyonfd MoE asDean in electability. No one wants to make the 1972 choice that puts Bush back into office with a supermajority, which is what poll indicate will happen if Dean is the candidate. Democrats want to win. They want to take no chances with a relatively unknown democrat with a hidden record that the Republicans will wait until they are running against him to bring out.

In the end, I would wager that even peple supporting Dean in New Hampshire Fianlly reverse and selecvt Kerry just on the electability issue. No matter what Dean supporters on DU say, for the most part, the entire polling structure views Dean as most unelectable. WE must also nowwait to see how adversely his comments about incremenalizing universal health care hit him, especially when he still intends to repeal the Bush tax cuts (essentially raising taxes) wothout them getting their "Either Tax Cuts" or "Health INsurance that cannot be taken away from you" Right away, within months of the election. Dean is saying he is gonna raise their taxes again, but they cant expect to get anything out of it soon. Taht will not fly well, and you can expect the other candidates to capitalize on it. Kerry has laready hinted at it, and is going to hint a lot harder come septemeber.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=108&topic_id=12723&mesg_id=12723

[ProfessorPlum]

38. Just because you say it

over and over and over again, doesn't make it true. We shall see what we shall see. I think the Dr. is going to surprise a lot of people.

[Nicholas_J]

55. Or the doctors people

May be in for surprises.

[ProfessorPlum]

57. absolutely.

We are in for an interesting ride.

[UnapologeticLiberal]

52. I know, this is great news

And there was a Zogby poll last week that for some reason has not been posted on pollingreport.com, but it had Lieberman, Dean and Gephardt tied for first nationwide with 17% each.

[Nicholas_J]

56. 12 percent each

not 17 percent each.

[The Sushi Bandit]

23. Another STUPID poll

the Ipsos-Reid/Cook Political Report Poll doesnt have Kucinich listed but has Other/None/Not sure @ 23%!

STUPID!!

[Nicholas_J]

28. Menas that Kucinich

Had less than one percent in the poll.

[Nicholas_J]

35. They are th only political polls

The most intersting think they have indicated is that the swing vote is likely to go to someone who supported for, rather than opposed the war:

Between July 8-10, 2003, and July 22-24, 2003, Ipsos-Public Affairs interviewed for the Cook Political Report a representative sample of 2,000 adult Americans nationwide, including 1,520 registered voters. The margin of error for the combined surveys is ± 2.2% for all adults, ± 2.5% for registered voters.

Washington, D.C. — In interviews with 1,520 registered voters conducted July 8-10, 2003, and July 22-24, 2003, the Ipsos-Public Affairs/Cook Political Report Poll finds the 2004 Presidential election taking shape as a key group of swing voters emerge. These swing voters:

Believe that the war with Iraq was worth fighting;
Believe the Bush Administration intentionally exaggerated its evidence that Iraq has weapons of mass destruction; and,
Are extremely negative about Bush’s handling of the economy and other domestic issues.

Ipsos-Public Affairs, in the most recent Cook Political Report poll, conducted July 22- 24, 2003, repeated two questions from an earlier ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll. The questions were:

Before the war began, do you think the Bush Administration did or did not intentionally exaggerate its evidence that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, such as biological or chemical weapons?
All in all, considering the costs to the United States versus the benefits to the United States, do you think the war with Iraq was worth fighting, or not?


http://www.ipsos-pa.com/dsp_displaypr_us.cfm?id_to_view=1873

By this analysis, the public supporteds the war in Iraq. 59 percent supprting, to 37 percent not supporting, (2.2 MoE)

44 percent state that Bush exagerated intelligence, 52 percent said that he did not.


Indications are that an someon perceived as totally opposing the war stands the least chace of berating Bush in 2004, and those who supported the war, but unnder set conditions, have a better chance. So Kerry, Gephardt, and Lieberman's stance better positions them for beatinf Beating. Bush.

Deans momonetum has been from anti-war democrats, and this group comprises and ever smaller group of the remaining undecided voters.
Deans momonetum has reached its peak, as anti-war candidates have thrown all available support behind him. This support has almost run its course.

[The Sushi Bandit]

24. Another STUPID poll

the Ipsos-Reid/Cook Political Report Poll doesnt have Kucinich listed but has Other/None/Not sure @ 23%!

STUPID!!

[Nazgul35]

39. the DLC working overtime...

that polling info about wanting candidates who supported the war is the same shit the DLC is selling...

Joe...is that you?

And I really love how much you love the polls....when you consider how much junk polling is involved....from the questions being asked to the randomness of the sample that is drawn....

So...tell me then Nick....what was the peirson's r hypothesis test that determined if the null of causation present in the sample is aslo present in the population? If you knew anything about stats, you would know that linear regression ( what is known as Classic Linear Regression model which was built by Fisher and Pierson) is the wrong model for almost any situation that involves humans....what you would want at the very least is a Maximum Likelihood model...or even better, the creme de la creme of statistics...a Bayesian model using Markov Chain Monte Carlo estimation...

The thing about Classic linear is that you can do alot to your results by changing the alpha level (what you like to call the margin of error) or changing the sample size (and anything below 1200 is foolish when you consider how uninformed the respondents are about who the candidates are), which is why a hypothesis testing to see if results are purely random or are in fact statistically significant...

Plus, and here's the kicker, just because a result has the proper number of stars doesn't imply causation....only that there is in fact an association...two things that are completely different in the stats world!

I'll ask you this last question Nick...did they seperate the number of respondents who could name the dem candidates running from office? And how did the candidates poll? Cause if they didn't, then this poll is not measuring anything other then background noise...

And the use of a national poll for individual state primaries is using agregate data to make inferences about individual level data...a number one nono in the world of science...sorry....spin your polls as much as you like...but this is junk science....no matter what the MOE is....

[Nicholas_J]

40. The MoE is 6.5 percent

Ipsos Cook is a French polling coporation:

And certainly less junk science than the time magazine online polls that have Dean being considered beigg the democratic nominess by 86 percent.

I find it interesting that Dean supporters jump up nad down for polls that qhow him ahead, but all over polls that show him behind....

Sorry. when you average them all togetther, Dean is still in 4th place.

And in the few poll that have him ahead in places like one New Hampshire poll, the pollsteers state that Kerry is still aheald altogether.

Sorry you done get to play both ways, when it looks good for Dean, the polls are accurate, and when it does not look so good for Dean they are junk science, sorry, the best pollsters like Gallop, place Dean well behind thew others:

Every national poll for the last month:

NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Robert Teeter (R). July 26-28, 2003. Asked of Democrats, and non-Democrats who said they would vote in a Democratic presidential primary.
.

"Let me mention some people who might seek the Democratic nomination for president in 2004. If the next Democratic primary for president were being held today, for which one of the following candidates would you vote: ?" If "Not sure," ask: "Well, which way do you lean?"

7/03 5/03 4/03 1/03
% % % %
Joe Lieberman 25 21 19 25
John Kerry 14 17 13 14
Howard Dean 12 3 3 3
Richard Gephardt 11 16 14 17
Carol Moseley Braun 5 4 4 n/a
John Edwards 4 5 4 7
Bob Graham 4 4 3 6
Al Sharpton 3 2 2 2
Dennis Kucinich 2 1 n/a n/a
None (vol.) 7 6 14 5
Other (vol.) - 1 1 1
Not sure 14 21 23 20

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. July 25-27, 2003. N=384 Democrats and Democratic leaners nationwide who are registered to vote. MoE ± 6.
.

"Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president in the year 2004. . . ."

7/25-27/03
%
Joe Lieberman 21
Dick Gephardt 16
John Kerry 15
Howard Dean 11
John Edwards 6
Carol Moseley Braun 6
Al Sharpton 5
Bob Graham 4
Dennis Kucinich 2
Other -
No one 2
No opinion 12
.

6/12-18/03 5/30 -
6/1/03 4/22-23/03 3/14-15/03
% % % %
Joe Lieberman 21 20 22 15
Dick Gephardt 17 14 16 20
John Kerry 13 17 18 16
Bob Graham 7 4 5 4
Howard Dean 7 5 6 5
John Edwards 6 6 8 6
Al Sharpton 6 7 3 5
Carol Moseley Braun 5 4 4 8
Dennis Kucinich 1 2 3 3
Other 1 1 1 1
No one 5 5 5 3
No opinion 11 15 9 14

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




Ipsos-Reid/Cook Political Report Poll. July 22-24, 2003. N=266 likely Democratic presidential primary/caucus voters nationwide. MoE ± 6.5.

.

"It is early, but if you had to choose today, which ONE of the following eight candidates would you be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president? . . ."

7/03 5/03 4/03 2/03
% % % %
John Kerry 20 15 19 18
Joe Lieberman 14 18 14 18
Richard Gephardt 14 14 14 15
Howard Dean 12 7 6 4
John Edwards 6 9 10 10
Carol Moseley Braun 3 3 4 3
Bob Graham 3 8 6 5
Al Sharpton 3 5 4 5
Hillary Rodham Clinton (vol.) 2 3 1 2
Other/None/Not sure 23 18 22 20
.

Asked of those who made a choice and did not volunteer Hillary Rodham Clinton: "If New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton decided to seek the Democratic nomination for president, would you continue to support or would you prefer to support Hillary Rodham Clinton?"
Asked of those who did not have an initial preference: "If New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton decided to seek the Democratic nomination for president, would she be your first choice for the nomination?"

Recalculated preference:

7/03 5/03 4/03 2/03
% % % %
Hillary Rodham Clinton 40 38 41 40
John Kerry 11 10 13 11
Howard Dean 9 4 3 2
Richard Gephardt 8 8 7 7
Joe Lieberman 7 10 6 11
John Edwards 2 6 6 6
Bob Graham 1 5 4 2
Carol Moseley Braun 1 1 1 2
Al Sharpton - 2 2 2
Other/None/Not sure 21 16 17 17

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




Quinnipiac University Poll. July 17-22, 2003. N=372 Democratic voters nationwide. MoE ± 5.1.

.

"Now I'm going to name nine Democrats who might run for president in 2004. After I read all nine names, tell me which one you would most like to see the Democrats nominate for president in 2004. Here are the choices . . . ."

7/17-22/03 6/4-9/03 2/26-
3/3/03 1/29-
2/3/03
% % % %
Joe Lieberman 21 22 21 27
Dick Gephardt 16 17 17 16
John Kerry 13 15 12 18
Howard Dean 10 5 4 3
Al Sharpton 6 5 5 6
John Edwards 4 5 8 14
Carol Moseley Braun 4 4 7 n/a
Bob Graham 3 6 6 n/a
Dennis Kucinich 2 1 2 n/a
Don't know 21 21 18 16
.

"Suppose New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton decides to run for president in 2004. Who would you most like to see the Democrats nominate for president in 2004? . . ."

7/17-22/03 6/4-9/03 2/26-
3/3/03 1/29-
2/3/03
% % % %
Hillary Rodham Clinton 48 40 37 42
Joe Lieberman 11 16 12 15
John Kerry 7 8 8 11
Dick Gephardt 7 10 13 11
Howard Dean 4 3 3 3
John Edwards 3 2 4 7
Bob Graham 3 4 4 n/a
Carol Moseley Braun 2 1 3 n/a
Dennis Kucinich 2 1 3 n/a
Al Sharpton 1 1 2 2
Don't know 12 12 11 8

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




Time/CNN Poll conducted by Harris Interactive. July 16-17, 2003. N=400 registered Democrats and independents who lean Democratic nationwide.

.

"Thinking ahead to the 2004 presidential election, if you were asked to vote for a Democratic presidential nominee for president today, which of the following Democrats would you vote for? . . ."

7/16-17/03 5/21-22/03 2/19-20/03 1/15-16/03
% % % %
Joseph Lieberman 16 13 16 21
John Kerry 14 14 8 11
Dick Gephardt 12 13 13 10
Howard Dean 10 4 3 3
John Edwards 6 7 7 12
Al Sharpton 5 8 7 2
Bob Graham 4 5 3 3
Carol Moseley Braun 4 3 4 n/a
Dennis Kucinich 3 2 2 n/a
Other 3 1 7 11
Not sure 23 30 30 27
.

Current results, with leaners:
%
Joseph Lieberman 18
John Kerry 15
Dick Gephardt 13
Howard Dean 10
John Edwards 7
Al Sharpton 5
Carol Moseley Braun 5
Bob Graham 4
Dennis Kucinich 3
Other 3
Not sure 17

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




Zogby America Poll. July 16-17, 2003. N=504 likely Democratic voters nationwide. MoE ± 4.4.
.

"If the Democratic primary for president were held today and the candidates were , for whom would you vote?"
7/16-17/03 3/5-7/03 1/24-26/03
% % %
Dick Gephardt 12 11 9
Howard Dean 12 4 2
Joe Lieberman 12 18 21
John Kerry 9 9 10
Al Sharpton 4 4 6
John Edwards 3 4 7
Carol Moseley Braun 2 1 n/a
Dennis Kucinich 2 1 n/a
Bob Graham 1 1 1
Other 6 7 5
Undecided 39 37 33
Gary Hart n/a 3 6
Wesley Clark n/a - -

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates. July 10-11, 2003. N=376 registered Democrats and independents who lean Democratic nationwide. MoE ± 6.

.

"Now I'm going to name nine Democrats who might run for president in the next election. After I read all their names, tell me which ONE you would MOST like to see nominated as the Democratic Party's presidential candidate in 2004. Here are the choices . . . ." Names rotated

7/03 1/03
% %
Dick Gephardt 14 13
Joe Lieberman 13 22
Howard Dean 12 4
John Kerry 10 13
Bob Graham 7 5
Al Sharpton 6 6
John Edwards 6 14
Carol Moseley Braun 3 n/a
Dennis Kucinich 2 n/a
Other (vol.) 1 1
None (vol.) 3 4
Don't know 23 13
Gary Hart n/a 5

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




ABC News/Washington Post Poll. July 9-10, 2003. N=443 Democrats and independents who lean Democratic. MoE ± 4.5. Fieldwork by TNS Intersearch.
.

"If the 2004 Democratic presidential primary in your state were being held today, and the candidates were , for whom would you vote?" Names rotated

7/03 4/03 .

% % .

Joseph Lieberman 13 29
John Kerry 12 14
Richard Gephardt 10 19
Howard Dean 8 3
John Edwards 6 4
Al Sharpton 6 3
Carol Moseley Braun 4 6
Bob Graham 3 3
Dennis Kucinich 2 2
Other (vol.) 2 1
None (vol.) 13 1
Wouldn't vote (vol.) 7 0
No opinion 16 14


http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm

Dean is not a TOP candidate in any of these and these are the SCIENTIFIC polls.

People spend a lot of money with these people, trying to figure out how to seel what to who.. Sorry. These are as accurate as rthey get and Dean just does not hold a candle to most of the other candididates, and given that Dean has been actively campaigning against tem for a VERY long time, and they have nort been actively campaigning against Dean, Deans performance is rather pathetic.

Dena has been actively campaigning for two years and Kerry actually has not formally started his campaign.

Can you imaging what is going to happen when Dean actually has to face off with these people and defend his record as governor, cutting all kinds of social programs, while their records for suipporting them are clean. Sorry, Dean does not do very well when he is actually in the same room with the other candidates. I cant wait to see how he does tomorrow in front of the AFL-CIO.

[ProfessorPlum]

41. If "Dena" has been actively campaigning for two years, why are you

the only one who has ever heard of her? :)

You keep saying "Sorry" when I don't think you are actually sorry.

[Nicholas_J]

47. I am completely paralysed on the left side,

If you wish to mock my ability to type, so be it, but it says even more about what I state about the kind of peopple Dean attracts.

AS I repeat, only a vicious, deceptive, candidate, could attract vicious support.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

49. The Prof wasn't being vicious

only poking fun at the "Dena" reference. Hence the smiley face.

There is certainly viciousness on both sides...like calling me a ***** (fill in the blank), which has since been deleted. There is no need for viciousness, but it has nothing to do with the candidates, only the supporters.

[ProfessorPlum]

54. Thanks

for the benefit of the doubt. :)

[ProfessorPlum]

53. Jeez, Nicholas, sorry to hear that

I thought it was your haste in typing (and blinding dislike for Dean). :) My bad.

[Nazgul35]

42. sorry...

you are the master of cut and paste....and it is clear from your response that you know nothing about stats other then what you learned in college....

and since I actually teach stats to political science undergrads, and have taken advance statistical course at Michigan University's ICPSR in maximum likelihood and Bayesian statistics...

and have taken courses with the foremost poll masters in the filed of political science...i'll keep to my own judgement about what polls are scientific....

and as far as supporting a poll that had Dean in the lead....where? Show me a single post where I said this poll is right? Ya can't cause I didn't! Your usual tactic of painting with a broad brush is working over time...

Meanwhile you didn't answer a single one of my points (probably because you don't know enough about polling and stats to put together a coherent reply) but instead cut and pasted the poll results....

No more....you're done with this nonsense...everytime you post on of these asinine poll results I'll be there explaining to everyone why the stats are not any good...leaving you to cut and paste....or until you go take a college stats course...i'll be offering my course again next summer if you'd like to sit in....and I can explain why polls are the worst form of statistics out there...

[ProfessorPlum]

44. Thank God

I'm going to hold you to that promise, Nazgul.

I've had some cool stats courses, and had a really good biostatistics course in grad school. I worked on my thesis project with a guy who was using Bayesian statistics for protein structure prediction.

My conclusion? Most polls aren't worth a crap. Glad to see someone who actually knows something about the field seems to agree. . .

'night!

[Nicholas_J]

48. I have takes at least 5 courses

In experimental design and statistical inference at the graduate level.

I have read a large number of the PDF's where available on these polls, and they are VERY exacting in their breakdown of groups by VERY, exacting methods.

The U of New Hampshire polls were most interesting, as it shows Deans only advantage in Vermont lies in the age group between 18 and 27. Kerry carries all other age groups. Of course, polls with sampling less than 1000-1200 are not very accurate, but several gallop polls have excedded these number, and are randomly selected from lists of Democratic voters. Agains, Dean falls down at the lower end of the top. And given the nature of these polls, and their Margins of Errors, his momonetum may not exist at all. Again. in polls with such small sampling, an large margins of error, as a statistician, you should be well aware that the only data in them that may have SOME degree of validity is any data that falls outside of their wide statittical error. Comparing Kerry and Dean, one of the areas in which Kerry's data falls far outside of Dean is the area of electability. WHen Dean is seen as having 17 percent of a group stating they think he can beat Bush, but Kerry is selected by 44 percent of the group of the people as being able to beat Bush in a poll in which 300 odd people are asked, and a MoE od 5.5 percent is given with 95 percent reliability, You can be fdairly certain that not many people feel confident in Deans ability to beat Bush, which is likely why another article indicates that a lot more people in New Hampshire are discussing dropping Dean for Kerry. (Guardian, U.K.)

[RevolutionStartsNow]

50. The article doesn't say that

It doesn't say that a lot more people in New Hampshire are discussing dropping Dean for Kerry. It just says people are looking at who is more electable. Currently Kerry polls as more electable, but that may change as Dean gets his message out and debunks the "anti-war" "ultra-liberal" label.

From the article:
The high number of undecideds also is a reflection of the crowded Democratic field that lacks no clear favorite. While the constant Democratic criticism of Bush has pushed his numbers down, it's been a cacophony that has failed to distinguish any rival.

``This field is really frozen,'' Killion said. ``There are two front- runners who are really close to each other, then there's a listless pack.''

State polls show fellow New Englanders John Kerry and Howard Dean locked in a tight race, with Rep. Dick Gephardt of Missouri and Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut vying for third. The rest trails in low single digits.

Edit: Here's the link to the article: http://www.guardian.co.uk/uslatest/story/0,1282,-2987687,00.html

[RevolutionStartsNow]

43. Very few polls show Dean ahead

especially when you consider MOE (which you must), but every poll shows Dean gaining. This is what I'm excited about.

And indeed, those scientific polls do show him as a TOP candidate -- not THE top candidate, all by his lonesome, but statistically at the top with MOE factored in. This is only good news. He has made major strides.

Sorry, but THESE polls make me jump up and down. He's going in the exact right direction.

[dsc]

45. Please cite one post where I

I find it interesting that Dean supporters jump up nad down for polls that qhow him ahead, but all over polls that show him behind....

I have been utterly consistent with regards to these polls. I have stated that nationwide polls are still too early to be of use. I have consistently talked about MOE which made Dean tied in many of these polls (and incidently in the averges of them too). And I have bitterly critised on line polls as being voodoo polls. It is you who use MOE when it helps but not when it hurts. You did exactly that in the original post's headline (where you disregard MOE) and in post 3 (where you mention MOE). Again put up or say you are sorry. I will start a public apology thread if you find one post by me that contradicts what I have said I posted.

[whirlygigspin]

46. pass

Like I'm gonna trust WSJ/NBC
or as I like to call em NBCGOP