Bush's odd at winning in 2004 currently 3-5

[diplomats]

http://www.americasline.com/pres.html

Kerry is 4-1 but Dean has moved from 25-1 to 10-1 in two months. Can anyone who knows anything about oddsmaking explain to me how good 3-5 is? Obviously it's better than even.

[qb]

1. If there were 8 votes, Bush would get 5 of them

(I think) Anybody else?

[David__77]

4. no, I think...

I think it actually means that there's a 5/8 chance that Bush will win, which is a 62.5% chance. Better than even, but not wonderful.

[papau]

2. These are not odds of winning - they just balance the bets so House wins

the middle.

If you believe betters can forecast the future better than poll takers or poli-sci majors, take it as a given the Bush is seen as likely to win in 04. At least by bettors.

[diplomats]

3. I figured that was the case

I guess Bush needs to drop more in the polls before his odds lessen.

[w4rma]

5. Bush: 83.33~%, Kerry: 12.5%, Dean: 5%

Bush: (3/5)/2
Kerry: (1/4)/2
Dean: (1/10)/2

I think...

[xequals]

6. What it means is

that a bettor betting on Bush would win $3 for every $5 bet placed if Bush won. A bettor betting on Kerry would win $4 for every $1 bet placed.

In other words, the oddsmakers feel that the odds of Bush winning are "3 to 5" (5 out of 3 or 166.66%). The odds of Kerry winning are "4 to 1" (1 out of 4 or 25%). And so on.

There is more money to be won on the higher odds "long shot" candidates because of the higher risk/unlikelihood of it happening -- like with a "long shot" horse in a horserace. I think Sharpton is something like a 10000 to 1 longshot.

[tameszu]

7. David, had it right, more or less

If we're to take the site at face as offering bets in probabilistic terms (rather than trying to even up the bookmakers' bets...is there really that much action on the presidential elections right now?!?) then he's saying that he predicts the chances of a Bush victory (including the GOP primary process, but the odds of that even happening seem spectacularly low) to be 5/8 (62.5%).

Similarly, the same calculation for Kerry puts him at 4:1 = 1/5, or 20%--which is not bad, considering that that also accounts for a 9-person primary.

P.S.: You can't have a probability exceeding 1 (100%).